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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 8/12/16
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Snowflake
9:34
I forget... are you for or against volcano based human sacrifice?
Jeff Sullivan
9:34
I am against any form of human sacrifice, but I am for people being drawn to volcanoes
9:35
A big problem you'd encounter: at any given moment there are only like four or five active lava lakes. So you might send a person to the top of a volcano, but that person might just die of exposure after a while, unless he or she just got bored and came back down
Bork
9:35
DEVON TRAVIS? DEVON TRAVIS!
Jeff Sullivan
9:36
Of some note: when I checked the other day, Travis has one of baseball's biggest increases in average launch angle. Gone from about 6 to about 13 degrees above horizontal. Putting more balls in the air
9:37
Also way up on that list: Justin Smoak and Ryan Goins and Josh Donaldson. Interesting!
I like Travis a lot. Was underrated when he was dealt. He's even better than I expected him to be
Ross
9:37
Are these Mariners for real or is this just a hot 2 weeks?
Jeff Sullivan
9:38
It can be both. Getting Felix back was important, even if he's sort of struggled. Paxton is putting it together and Iwakuma has found a groove so finally there is some starting pitching holding up its end of the bargain. Diaz provides something Cishek couldn't, and early indications suggest that even Zunino is better
9:39
The Mariners are 11th in winning percentage and 10th in BaseRuns winning percentage. They're 11th in projected winning percentage. Pretty good club
soapy schoopy
9:39
I'm about to lose my mind. Beer league softball playoffs this weekend. We have a good squad! We have two HR hitters that my co-coach wants to split up at 4 and 7 in the lineup so we can "maximize home runs'. How do I convince him this idea is very fallible.
Jeff Sullivan
9:40
Tell him if he wants to maximize home runs, the first step should be maximizing exposure, which means maximizing plate appearances. Who gets the most plate appearances? The first hitters!
You can negotiate from there
Ampersand
9:41
Good morning Jeff! Do you have any thoughts about the AL Cy Young race? I feel like it's wide open this year.
Jeff Sullivan
9:41
If it weren't for the innings I'd just say the favorite is Danny Duffy
9:42
I think you look at Kluber and Sale and potentially Sanchez depending on how he finishes up. There's no clear runaway No. 1. Even Britton could have a legitimate case -- I haven't decided on that matter yet
9:43
I'm not opposed to the idea of a reliever winning the Cy Young and Britton has been absurd. Still probably not sufficiently absurd
Ross
9:43
Is Taijuan Walker destined for the bullpen? His secondary pitches are not very good and doesn't seem to be making a lot of progress.
Jeff Sullivan
9:44
He was dealing with a foot problem for a while and he sucked. I think it's still kind of there and more than anything he needs offseason rest. What he did earlier in the year when he was healthy was too encouraging for the team to shove him into relief.
j6takish
9:44
As fun as it is to rag on guys like Francouer, do you remember when Mark Kotsay got a guaranteed major league deal for like 8 seasons in a row despite not being good since 2004?
Jeff Sullivan
9:45
Last three-digit wRC+: 2004. Last season played: 2013!
That *was* weird. From 2006 on, Kotsay batted 2,368 times, and he posted a -4.6 WAR.
9:46
He's a coach now, implying as a player he was a good clubhouse presence. Very Francoeur-y.
Alex
9:47
Who goes down as the greater player, Trout or Kershaw?
Jeff Sullivan
9:47
aw geez
I have to say Trout but this question is unfair
Nate
9:47
So which Jays pitcher is winning the cy young?
Jeff Sullivan
9:47
All of them will split it
9:48
dammit, my answer should've been Kevin Pillar
can I go back in time?
Sapporo
9:49
What's your impression of Gary Sanchez in the few games he's been up?
Jeff Sullivan
9:49
It's too early to form one, so I'm mostly telling myself over and over to stop seeing him as another Jesus Montero
9:50
We've already seen him clobber a ball or two, but that wasn't unexpected.
Ross
9:51
For the Mariners squeak in the playoffs what do you think they have to go record wise the rest of the way?
Jeff Sullivan
9:52
Right now the Orioles are projected to finish about 88-74. So to just tie them, the Mariners would need to go 28-21 (.571; 93-win pace)
9:55
The worst AL playoff teams the last four years: 86, 88, 92, 93 wins. So realistically the Mariners might need to go something more like 30-19
Let me take that back -- in 2012, the Tigers made it at 88-74. But they won their division, and I was looking at wild cards
j
9:56
How much money has Bautista lost this year with all the injuries / poor performance when healthy?
Jeff Sullivan
9:57
I don't think he was ever going to quite break the bank, not at his age, but I could see him losing about $20-25 million in guarantees. This should all make him easier to negotiate with because his own expectations for himself should be somewhat reduced
or at least he should feel a little humbled
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