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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 8/19/16
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Northsider
10:47
I’ve heard a lot of talk lately about the need for advanced stats on tagging players. Wouldn’t this stat be more dependent on the throw to the player rather than the actual tag?
Jeff Sullivan
10:47
Seems that way. Everyone tags more or less the same. The biggest issue is where the baseball arrives.
Maybe the argument is really for having sensors to detect when a tag is and is not made
Jerry DiPoto
10:47
Can the Mariners make the playoffs? What has to happen? What is optimal bullpen alignment when Tony Zych and Steve Cishek return
Jeff Sullivan
10:48
Of course they can make the playoffs. They need a healthy Paxton and Walker, and they could use bullpen reinforcements. But nothing crazy has to happen. They just need to win a few games they probably shouldn't have won
The Boat
10:48
Can Pittsburgh fix Ivan Nova? With a strong finish, he seems like he could be a surprisingly strong option in a weak market.
Jeff Sullivan
10:49
Already, he hasn't walked a single batter as a Pirate, and his zone rate is through the roof. Trusting his changeup a lot more. There's something going on there
Gary
10:49
Leon is hitting the shit out of the ball. I know his projections suck but do you think there's actually something there? Like he's an above average hitter.
Jeff Sullivan
10:49
He's really proving something. He's still the best hitter in baseball as of today if you lower the minimum enough. I buy him as a 90-100 wRC+ hitter
jono
10:51
Which current player has earned the most money, deserved the money they made, and won't make the Hall of Fame? Matt Holliday is my vote.
Jeff Sullivan
10:51
Holliday is a good pick. Chase Utley would be in there somewhere. We'll see where Votto ends up when his deal ends if the world doesn't end first
The Boat
10:52
Since the SP market is so bad this winter, what SPs on total non-contenders might get moved? Desclafani, Brewers or Rays guys, etc. any ideas?
Jeff Sullivan
10:52
A lot of the rumors will be the same as what we just saw. Sale stuff, Archer stuff, Gray stuff, etc
Brandon
10:52
How much (if any) has Lewis Brinson's stock fallen this year with his bad first half, injury, and now back on the DL?
Jeff Sullivan
10:52
It's clearly fallen, but not so far that he couldn't be a centerpiece for an excellent player. He still has a high floor because of his defense and athleticism
Derek
10:53
If you're Jason Heyward, do you try a completely new swing? His current approach just beats the ball into the ground, and as he ages he'll naturally lose bat speed. He's really bad now with good bad speed.
Jeff Sullivan
10:53
He's been tweaking his swing over and over for years. I expect that, come the winter, he'll have some kind of overhaul. Nothing dramatic to be done today
Mark L
10:53
Who's your top 5 AL CY Young contenders?
Jeff Sullivan
10:53
Just wrote that up yesterday. Some hodgepodge with Kluber, Sale, Quintana, Sanchez, Duffy...
JoshP
10:54
Piggybacking off of your article this morning. Syndergaard has a 2.76 ERA and a 2.23 FIP. Not knowing what factors are considered for FIP, how much of that 0.53 difference can be attributed to the inability to control the running game, as opposed to the Mets being the Mets on defense?
Jeff Sullivan
10:54
I think you can just look at the statistic I cited in the article. Through 140 innings, he's at -6 stolen-base runs
10:55
It's the equivalent of giving up an extra three or four homers
Just, you know, not all at once
Jeremy
10:55
After a few years of statcast data, it would be interesting to look back and try to "guess" when a player was suffering a decline in performance from injury, then go back and injury records and see if that was indeed the case, see how accurate your predictions were and try to make some kind of model for noticing if a player was potentially playing injured? More useful for fantasy than real life maybe
Jeff Sullivan
10:56
I think people are kind of already trying this, at least on a case-by-case basis. Petriello has written about how Statcast can indicate injury. With pitchers, I think we could already do much of the same stuff with PITCHf/x, but Statcast helps to shed light on hitters
Like, there's talk that Bryce Harper has an injured shoulder. You can see that in the data if you look for it
Comin's and Goins
10:57
Is Boise a stopping point, or are you going to be pushing for the finish line by then?
Jeff Sullivan
10:57
Winston-Salem --> Louisville --> Kansas City --> Denver --> Salt Lake City --> southeast Oregon for a little camping --> Bend
Bryan in Boise
10:57
Which are the worst run MLB teams in your opinion?
Jeff Sullivan
10:57
Diamondbacks
Dr Q
10:58
Article Idea: What would an ideal projected 2020 Olympic USA baseball team look like?
Jeff Sullivan
10:58
...nothing like how the team will actually look, because it won't have big-leaguers on it
Nate
10:59
What's your take on Turner's development since his call up? The guy has looked quite solid as their leadoff man
Jeff Sullivan
10:59
At some point I'd like to see him walk, but he's really helped to plug up a hole
Patrick
10:59
Are the Astros done for this year?
Jeff Sullivan
10:59
No, but they're in real trouble
Ned Colletti
11:00
Is Corey Seager one of the 10 best players in the league?
Jeff Sullivan
11:00
I feel like he's more in the 11-20 range
jon
11:00
Billy Hamilton stole 6 bases against Jon Lester in like 6 plate appearances in 2015.
Jeff Sullivan
11:00
Billy Hamilton is the best baserunner in the game, and he might be the best young baserunner in baseball history depending on whether you adjust for OBP
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