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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 9/1/17
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Q-Ball
9:24
Did the Astros err, in your opinion, by staying pat at the deadline, then giving up a decent prospect haul for Verlander?  Should they have topped the offer for Gray?  Or maybe they didn't like him?
Jeff Sullivan
9:25
I don't think Gray would've been the right kind of fit. And my own opinion leans conservative -- I'm not a huge fan of big splashes. But in reality, the Astros have more question marks now than they did, and Verlander has fewer than *he* did. So while I don't think this move was necessary, I get why the Astros felt compelled
Daniel
9:26
The Marlins haven't won a game since you wrote about them on Monday. Do you at all feel personally responsible for that?
Jeff Sullivan
9:26
Losing to the Nationals, I get. Losing to the Phillies? Don't lose to the Phillies.
But while the Marlins faded instantly, at least we still have the Brewers to watch
ryan
9:27
does the return for brandon phillips seem light to you, or is this about the best the braves could have hoped for?
Jeff Sullivan
9:27
What do you think a team deserves to get for one month of a 36-year-old Brandon Phillips?
9:28
I get that maybe you'd prefer some low-level flier, but this is effectively going to work out the same
PF
9:28
When do we see a player better then Trout? 10 years? 20? Ever?
Jeff Sullivan
9:28
Like, better than Trout at the time, or better than the Trout of today?
9:29
Presuming you mean the latter, I'll say we'll see maybe one of those guys in the next couple decades
PTBNL
9:29
Are the Angels now the favorites for the second wild card spot?
Jeff Sullivan
9:30
I think with so little time left, you have to give the edge to the team with the 1.5-game lead. Especially since the Twins play the Tigers another seven times, and they just got a lot weaker
tonyc
9:30
JV to Houston and McCullers returning soon means... what?  Six-man rotation with Peacock to the pen?  Peacock and Fiers to the pen?
Jeff Sullivan
9:31
Going to be a lot of September mixing and matching and spots skipped. All in the name of rest and preservation. Come playoff time, it'll be Verlander, Keuchel, and a grab bag
Olly
9:32
Wil Myers went from a +4 WAR breakout to barely a replacement player. What happened and can he get back?
Jeff Sullivan
9:33
Remember that, even last year, Myers had almost all of his value in the first half. 92 second-half wRC+
I don't think he's dropped off *that* much in terms of his skills -- that is, I don't think he's suddenly gotten four wins worse. Some of this is just noise. But I don't think of Myers as being a really strong core asset
9:34
His launch angle this year has spiked -- it's possible he made his swing a hair or two more exploitable
PF
9:34
How good can Vlad. Jr become? Trout Harper Correa level?
Jeff Sullivan
9:35
Okay, so, on the one hand, don't expect that. Never expect that. On the other hand, I don't think there's a player in the minors with a higher ceiling. Elite is most certainly within Guerrero's feasible reach
Joey
9:36
If the Tigers get close to their asking price, should they pull the trigger and go all in on the rebuild and trade Fulmer this winter?
Jeff Sullivan
9:37
If the demand is out there, sure, they could try to market him as a more cost-controlled Sonny Gray. Fulmer is in one of those situations where you don't know if he'll still be good and healthy next time the Tigers are decent. But because he has so much control left, there's no urgency; he could be flipped next deadline, or the offseason after
But right now, basically, no one at the major-league level is too important to trade
PTBNL
9:38
With Pedroia back, how should the Red Sox juggle their infield? Seems like there aren't enough PA to go around for Hanley, Moreland, Pedroia, Bogaerts, Nunez, Devers.
Jeff Sullivan
9:38
Thankfully, neither Hanley nor Moreland are particularly good
PF
9:39
Who's the most statistically unique player in the Major Leagues right now?
Jeff Sullivan
9:40
Might be Billy Hamilton, might be Joey Votto. Hard to know off the top of my head, but I bet there would be some pretty simple math one could attempt
Zock Jr.
9:40
Craziest August deadline I can remember.
Jeff Sullivan
9:40
Not the relaxing Thursday night I had planned for myself
ryan
9:41
if the orioles decided to trade machado this offseason, what could a potential return look like? 3 top 100 guys with one in the top 20?
Jeff Sullivan
9:43
Going to be hard-pressed to get the kind of massive haul you'd like when you're talking about a player with one remaining control year
9:44
Teams just don't give up that much talent for rentals. Now, few rentals would be better than Machado, who is great and who will dramatically outplay his Arb3 salary. But you're looking at a probable package with one premium prospect and some filler gambles
J
9:44
Rank: Houston, Boston, Cleveland
Jeff Sullivan
9:44
Astros, Indians, Red Sox
All of them are great
Orange Whips
9:44
What should the Twins do? Their core of Buxton/Sano/Berrios looks solid enough, but they desperately need pitching. Should they be in on the big name FAs this offseason?
Jeff Sullivan
9:44
No
9:45
Buying big-name free agents is frequently a bad idea. Especially when you're a team that doesn't spend that much. Can't afford to give that much payroll space to market-rate players
Oscar O'Bannon
9:47
You may have Willson Contreras or Gary Sanchez right now. Who are you picking and why?
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