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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 9/15/17
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Jeff Sullivan
9:31
Dummy Hoy is still Dummy Hoy. That wouldn't catch on in 2017
Babe Lincoln
9:31
Ever hiked the Badlands?  Was just there and it's amazing.  Highly recommend doing a back country hike to Deer Haven.  I've never done anything good in PNW, though.  Any recommendations?
Jeff Sullivan
9:31
On the list but haven't yet had the chance. Dave and I were going to swing through on his road trip last year but then we had to develop a different itinerary
9:32
So many options in the PNW. I love getting up on any of the big mountains, especially Hood, but if you want the most bang for your buck, you might set your sights on the Tatoosh Range, just south of Rainier
Also couldn't recommend Mount Margaret backcountry enough
Twoseamers
9:33
what would Rhys have to do to overcome the difference in PA compared to Bellinger
Jeff Sullivan
9:34
Basically can't. This is just this year's version of Sanchez vs. Fulmer
Even if Hoskins caught up in WAR somehow, the voters would still prefer Bellinger's full season
Julio Pepper
9:35
Byron Buxton is running a 250 wRC+ on bunts. While there are diminishing returns to doing more of anything in baseball, it feels like Byron Buxton isn't at that point. Should he be bunting a lot more?
Jeff Sullivan
9:35
His wRC+ on bunts last year was 78
9:36
He's already third in baseball this year in bunt hits. I think he could probably stand to bunt a *little* more often but now that he can actually hit, it's more something to keep in his back pocket
Cpglen01
9:36
How great of a story is Tommy Pham, he has been incredible this year
Jeff Sullivan
9:36
9/10 great story
The two players who have outperformed their preseason projected WAR the most: Aaron Judge, and then Tommy Pham
The Average Sports Fan
9:37
The Cubs end the season with a 3 game series vs the Reds.  Will those games matter?
Jeff Sullivan
9:37
Probably not
Tony Plush
9:39
A lot of people seem to think Ohtani won't be a 2-way player. But if you're like, the Royals, what do you have to lose by saying, "hell, you can start in the outfield 4 out of 5 days!" Seems like someone will go there, because more injury risk to have him is a lot better than watching him on the Yankees. And then, doesn't seem like a stretch that he goes to the Yanks and says, "well, I'd love to play for you but KC will put me in the OF..." And then boom, negotiations! Worst case scenario he fails and you talk to him about giving it up or gets injured and you talk to him about giving it up.
Jeff Sullivan
9:39
Basically no way any team would ever allow Ohtani to play the field right before or after his starts
9:40
And also, if you're Ohtani, it's best not to take front offices at their word, since ultimately all plans will be determined by performance. Some team could say it'll play Ohtani in the field but you can't really get that in legal writing
9:41
Don't know how much of this is going to come down to what teams say about their plans. I think it'll be up to Ohtani to identify who's *likely* to present the best opportunity. That's presumably going to be in the National League
David
9:42
Do you think it likely that Darvish will get a larger contract than he would have otherwise this winter due to teams hoping it will help them get Ohtani?
Jeff Sullivan
9:42
I want to say no but I could actually see him negotiating for an extra few million
Which is wild!
AndyBaesball
9:43
Hi Jeff!  The Cardinals keep winning, but so does MIL and CHC.  Think StL pulls it out?
Jeff Sullivan
9:43
Major problem with the wild card: the Rockies have 15 games left, and 12 are against the Padres, Giants, and Marlins
9:44
So maybe better to think about the division. Brewers have four left against the Cubs. Cardinals have seven
If the Cardinals can win five of those, look out. As much fun as the Brewers are, they still are a rebuilding team without Jimmy Nelson
CT
9:45
Are you really 6'9"?
Jeff Sullivan
9:45
What? No.
6'5, and thanks to my job, I slouch
9:46
Hold on a couple minutes, phone call
9:48
All right, should be good now
Brett W
9:48
Great win distribution article. The Reds and Marlins jumped out to me. Shouldn't top-heavy teams with losing records always be trying to move those assets?
Jeff Sullivan
9:49
Two approaches to take. One, like the recent White Sox, you can make an effort to build up your depth. Or two, like the recent White Sox, you can sell the top talent off and rebuild
9:50
With the Reds and Marlins, it's a little more complicated. The White Sox had the chance for a more "clean" rebuild. The Marlins are trying to avoid doing that whole process over again, for ownership reasons. And the Reds are being led in large part by Joey Votto, who's not the easiest star player to move
They've also tried to move Zack Cozart, but they've been unsuccessful
Bubba
9:50
If my questions are sometimes answered in chats, but my comments on articles are never displayed after I get the "pending moderation" message, does that mean i'm blocked somehow?
Jeff Sullivan
9:51
Very, very few commenters are blocked, so either there's something else going on, or you have a history of leaving some terrible and terribly offensive comments
hanna
9:52
In the most recent EF episode you spoke about how the difference between 28.00-27.00 ERA and @2.00-1.00  ERA and how those differences are not the same value. I'm taking an intro to stats class this year and am wondering if that changes ERA from a ratio stat to an ordinal stat.
Jeff Sullivan
9:52
Still a ratio stat. It's just that the *effect* of ERA changes, in terms of win expectancy
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