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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 9/15/17
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John
10:14
What is the best sales pitch the Mariners could make to Ohtani?  He mentioned in an interview that he wants to help a beleaguered fan base.  Could any city make a better case than Seattle?
Jeff Sullivan
10:15
Mariners could pitch themselves as a competitive team with a need and a thriving international community. Relatively short flight to Japan. They have theoretical DH flexibility even though, in reality, Nelson Cruz gets in the way. That's a real obstacle
10:16
I don't know how you manage that, short of teaching Cruz how to play first base
TJ
10:17
Name a plausible outcome for CC Sabathia in 2018 - Yankees on a 1 year deal for $15mm?
Jeff Sullivan
10:17
Money seems a little steep, but the general terms are appropriate
Wily Mo's ghost
10:18
I enjoyed the non-prospect article, but the traded-for-nobody examples were more compelling to me, because of the arbitrariness of the 100-spot cutoff. I'm not sure it's quantifiable, but surely a true non-prospect is one his own team doesn't regard as having a future.
Jeff Sullivan
10:19
There are certainly degrees. I went with the BA top-100 cutoff just because it was so easy to do, thanks to their historical record. There are still good prospects who never ranked in the top-100, for whatever reason. Hard to find a clearer excellent non-prospect than Corey Kluber
Otani Danza
10:20
What do you make of MLB's new outfield defensive stat rating Trout, Pederson, and Fowler among the worse fielders in the game? Does that keep with the "eye test"?
Jeff Sullivan
10:20
UZR and DRS are also a little down on 2017 Trout
10:21
The trouble with the eye test and center fielders is that *all* the center fielders look good to the eye because they're selected to play center field in the first place
It's easy to tell the difference between a bad defender and a good defender. It's much harder to tell the difference between a good defender and a great one
Mark
10:22
Isnt the Athletics winning streak more impressive? the roster was built out of scrap and they just kept scoring and scoring. Pitching is pretty even.
Jeff Sullivan
10:23
The year the A's had their winning streak, they went 103-59. The year before, they went 102-60. You can give them all the credit you like for hoarding underappreciated players, but the reality is that, as those seasons were playing out, the A's were very obviously a great baseball team
Justin
10:24
I hope this isn't a silly question. Yesterday I read that David Price was hitting the bullpen in pace for the playoffs and I found it interesting. Could this potentially be a trend in the near future in the big name rotation pitcher or ace whatever you'd call him is sent to the pen? And if so couldn't a team like the dodgers or the article from the Indians or dodgers with deep rotations use starters  in the pen just to do so if there are struggles?
Jeff Sullivan
10:24
Price is only going to the bullpen because there's no time to build up his arm strength after being sidelined for so long
Don't think we're going to see a trend of good starters becoming good playoff relievers. Still need playoff starters
Josh
10:25
After a surprising first half, Jordan Monthomery has not looked good as of late.  Have you seen anything that has caused him to struggle in the second half?
Jeff Sullivan
10:26
I have to imagine he's simply getting tired
I know he's not so far above his 2016 usage, but he's spent almost the whole year in the majors. That'll take the wind out of a guy
TJ
10:28
What would Aroldis get as a FA right now? Half of his current deal?
Jeff Sullivan
10:29
I could see him getting something like the Melancon deal. Results-wise, he's kind of having Craig Kimbrel's 2016. The stuff is still there, and the track record is virtually spotless
David
10:29
Your piece about successful non-prospects is interesting. Would you suspect there is something about most of those prospects that could be seen early if we knew what to look for, or do they simply become good later in their careers than top prospects?
Jeff Sullivan
10:30
I noticed yesterday that most of the good second basemen in baseball today were unranked prospects. Prospect evaluators don't love second basemen because they lack shortstop athleticism, but these days that's less of a factor. These players also had their hit tools undersold; because of the hit tool, they eventually developed more power
Palardelphia
10:31
Ready for some silly stats?
Babe Ruth Career OPS - 1.164
Rhys Hoskins Career OPS - 1.247

2001 Barry Bonds PA/HR - 9.10
Rhys Hoskins PA/HR - 8.17 (1st all time among 31,185 player seasons, min 140 PA)
Jeff Sullivan
10:31
I love a strong debut, but I'm only sold when I see a strong sophomore campaign. I want to see adjustments to the adjustments, and Hoskins hasn't had a chance for that yet
Kevin
10:32
Should Ketel Marte be a MLB starting SS?
Jeff Sullivan
10:32
I think he's a bottom-third everyday shortstop, but he won't kill you
10:33
In fact, thanks to his bat-to-ball skills, he's another sudden-power candidate
10:34
Fly-ball rate this year has increased six points. Makes above-average contact. Draws a good number of walks. Next Jose Ramirez?
TJ
10:34
Hosmer really is the perfect Boras puffery type FA, isn't he? Boras call sell all the usuals on leadership, and RBIs, and championship pedigree, while ignoring everything else, right?
Jeff Sullivan
10:34
I mean, Hosmer is a good player. He's just not a great player. He's going to try to get paid like a great player
@ryan0deal
10:35
I'd like to publicly cement my take that Cleveland will lose in 4 to the 2nd AL wild card team. Also, is the diamondbacks #1 pitcher greinke or Robbie Ray?
Jeff Sullivan
10:35
Diamondbacks will start Greinke No. 1
Otani Danza
10:35
Twins have six games against NYY(3) and CLE(3) but have 5 games against DET.  Mariners have six against HOU and CLE and they're 3.5 back.  Mariner chances of hauling them back over under 10%?
Jeff Sullivan
10:35
Mariners need a miracle
O's Nos
10:36
Realistically does anyone have a shot at the second AL wild card other than the Twins, Angels, and maybe the Mariners?
Jeff Sullivan
10:36
Not really. Twins' recent strong play has mostly locked it up
EK
10:36
Who's playing Lindor in the CLE's feature film?
Jeff Sullivan
10:36
Kevin Costner somehow
PTBNL
10:36
Thoughts on Price in the bullpen? He had some success there in October '08.
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