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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 9/8/17
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Futuresgames
9:56
Are we getting a little carried away with Guerrero Jr.? He's basically gone from a "hmm, could be interesting" prospect to being KLaws minor league player of the year, a part of BA's first team minor league all-stars, and in discussion as a possible top 5 overall prospect for next year... all in a year, and at age 18! Give me a reasonable assessment.. is he really worth all this hype?
Jeff Sullivan
9:57
There are two dueling points to be made. One is that Guerrero is still just in High-A, which is quite a distance removed from the majors. He has several hurdles left to clear, and *any* prospect in A-ball should be regarded as risky
9:58
That being said, if you have to love a prospect in A-ball, you couldn't really do better than Guerrero. He's 18 years old, he has power, and he has more walks than strikeouts. It's like he's on the Devers path, but even better
9:59
Because I'm prospect-conservative, I like guys in the higher levels. Like, Acuna has already been good at both Double-A and Triple-A. But Guerrero is a lightning-fast riser
Patrick
9:59
What the hell does a professional at-bat mean? I was watching the Rockies game yesterday, their announcers said it about every single person
Jeff Sullivan
10:00
They're right! All of the people playing were professionals
tz
10:01
Which will happen first for Trout:  taking back the MLB lead in WAR, or getting enough PA to qualify for the Fangraphs leaderboard?
Jeff Sullivan
10:02
Trout is very close to becoming a qualified player. I can see him passing Rendon before that -- he's behind by just 0.3 WAR. But if I wanted to be totally fair, I'd point out that Trout is 1.3 WAR behind Chris Sale. Always have to remember to include the pitchers. So, with pitchers folded in, Trout will become a qualified player first
Jeff
10:03
Why does FG have such a relatively low opinion of the National's compared to the other division leaders?  Worst ROS RDif of the 6 and WS% closer to the Yankees than the Cubs.
Jeff Sullivan
10:04
Bryce Harper is hurt and sidelined. He's one of their best players, so his absence informs the rest-of-season projections. The playoff numbers don't consider the fact that Harper should become available again by then
Mr. Woods
10:05
Is there a mechanism you can use to inform us when the UZR and UBR get updated.
Jeff Sullivan
10:05
Pretty sure the updates are weekly. Day-to-day data doesn't exist. I don't know exactly when during the week the updates are folded in, though
Jack
10:06
Forget football. Hockey's just around the corner! What do you think of the Sens this year? How are you handling the Karlsson news?
Jeff Sullivan
10:07
Borderline contender! And I'm not too worried if Karlsson has to miss the first few games. Those are the least important games. Remember, though, that I am intentionally hockey-stupid. Hockey-stupid Jeff is never dissatisfied
More Like
10:08
It seems that since The Punch, both Roughned Odor and Jose Bautista have fallen off of a cliff value-wise. Is there an easy way to get their respective triple slash lines since May 15, 2016?
Jeff Sullivan
10:08
Yes!
10:09
Give me just one minute
10:10
Bautista: 945 PA, .218/.332/.404, 97 wRC+
Odor: 1048 PA, .237/.271/.453, 83 wRC+
Your suspicions are confirmed
10:11
Odor has been very, very bad. Quiet below-replacement season
BringInDaFunk BringInDaNiese
10:11
PDX Ice Cream Throwdown:  Ruby Jewel vs Salt & Straw
Jeff Sullivan
10:11
There's also Fifty Licks
10:12
They're all good. Salt & Straw *might* be the best, but the wait time is unjustifiable, given the quality of the alternatives
TJ
10:13
What do the Yankees do at 3b next year? Torres should be ready, Andujar seems like he'd be a competent regular and Headley still has one year left. At $13mm does Headley have surplus value? Would a team take him for free?
Jeff Sullivan
10:15
Very thin market for Headley. My guess for now is that the Yankees go in with Headley as the starter, and then they reevaluate if Torres or Andujar force their way up. Headley, for now, is still something like an average overall player
Agamemnon
10:16
What do the augurs say about Robles cap tipping after fly out in first AB?
Jeff Sullivan
10:17
I think it's nice when a stadium full of people knows what's going on
Slew
10:18
Tell us about the Dodgers. Given their run differential fall from grace, have they been usurped as the best team in baseball?
Jeff Sullivan
10:19
I never really believed that the Dodgers were *that* much better than the rest of the competition. Just doesn't make sense in this day and age. They weren't that good and they aren't this bad. I think they're a top-three team, and I doubt there's much true separation
Between the Indians, Dodgers, and Astros, I couldn't pick a favorite
toki
10:20
So if the Marlin's stadium is destroyed, who's on the hook for the rebuild?  The city going to have to fork over another billion?
Jeff Sullivan
10:20
The Marlins' stadium will not be destroyed
Unless Giancarlo Stanton takes an unusually long batting practice
Jaack
10:21
It really is a shame the Dodgers aren't in the AL. Nothing would be more baseball than an 82-80 wildcard tram sweeping the dodgers in the ALDS.
Jeff Sullivan
10:21
An 82-80 wild card team could sweep the Astros or Indians or Red Sox in the ALDS
That wouldn't be much less baseball
TJ
10:22
Scouts don't get excited by his stuff, and wins don't matter, but isn't Zach Littell going 19-1 in the minors interesting? For a guy who has been traded twice in a year?
Jeff Sullivan
10:22
I'm afraid not :(
10:23
Stranger: Littell has started seven games in Double-A with the Yankees, and seven games in Double-A with the Twins. His K-BB% has gone from 25% to 9%
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