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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 9/8/17
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NH
10:47
I got curious last night after hearing about the Indians winning their 15th in a row and started looking at previous log win streaks, such as the 2002 A's, and I noticed that a few win streaks all happened around this time of year. So what I'm getting at, is do you think there is any correlation to win streaks and the time of year? Whether it has to do with roster expansions, luck, or something I'm missing?
Jeff Sullivan
10:48
I'm going to guess there's not really anything real, but if there *were*, then I'd say it's likely related to the trade deadline. After the deadline, there's a wider gap between a league's good teams and bad teams. Like, the Indians' last eight wins have come against the White Sox and Tigers, who this season have intentionally made themselves a lot worse
More bad teams to beat up on in the final months
TJ
10:49
Pujols having only 14 doubles has to be close to some kind of record too - he would need to play in the Polo Grounds to get a triple at this point.
Jeff Sullivan
10:50
I want to watch Buxton and Pujols leave home plate at the same time, and I want to see where Pujols is when Buxton finishes all 360 feet
I doubt they'd go for it, though, because it's kind of mean-spirited
And pointless. Also pointless
Pretty Tony
10:52
I occasionally get into it on twitter with a writer from the local newspaper and it almost always revolves around Nick Castellanos. He continues to claim that Castellanos will figure it out at the plate and will ultimately be a very valuable player, going so far as to say that if/when the Tigers trade him away, fans will moan and complain we he finally flourishes away from Detroit. I am of the belief that due to his massive shortcomings on defense and on the base paths, Castellano's ceiling is that of a 2-win player. Thoughts on Nick? Do you see any reason for optimism?
Jeff Sullivan
10:52
I wouldn't say that Castellanos is a terrible baserunner. He's not good, but he's not really a problem
10:54
He *isn't* a good defender and he probably never will be, anywhere. And I imagine he'll always strike out a lot more than he walks. But the pop is legitimate, and I love that Castellanos has never hit many infield flies. It speaks well to his contact quality. I think the upside here looks a lot like J.D. Martinez. Might not ever get there, but Martinez didn't "arrive" until he was 26
Castellanos turns 26 next March
Secued
10:55
Joey Gallo's BABIP splits vs righty and lefty are very different.  Any reason why other than small sample size?
Jeff Sullivan
10:55
Against lefties, Gallo has hit literally just 40 balls in play. It doesn't mean anything
Bobby
10:55
Who ya got: Robles or Acuna?
Jeff Sullivan
10:55
Acuna
TKDC
10:56
If the Angels make the playoffs, will Pujols be named on any MVP ballots?
Jeff Sullivan
10:56
No, all the selections will go to Trout and Simmons
brad
10:56
very quietly Tyler O'neill is batting .246 31 HR 95 RBI and no one cares.....
Jeff Sullivan
10:57
That's because his Triple-A wRC+ is barely better than average
Bink
10:57
Is the ratio of sinkers a product of fewer really successful sinkerball pitchers (Derek Lowe) and their copycats, or is it that common pitches and approaches have a frequency dependent function (success breeds familiarity, hitters learn to hit sinkers better, other pitches rise in frequency)?
Jeff Sullivan
10:58
I think hitters have gotten better at hitting sinkers. And many pitchers possess both a four-seamer and a two-seamer, and so the emphasis now is increasingly on using the four-seamer up in the zone. It's also the fastball more closely related to velocity, and velocity will always serve as a motivator
10:59
Because of how hitters are doing against pitches down, teams want their pitchers to work away from that strength. In time, hitters will adjust to *that*, and sinkers will return. Always a push and pull
TJ
11:02
When the Phillies traded Nicasio - did he have to go through waivers again?
Jeff Sullivan
11:02
I've tried to research this without any luck
11:03
I think the answer is yes. I suspect Nicasio was put on waivers, and claimed by the Cardinals, and then a trade was worked out
11:04
These would've been revocable waivers, or else the Cardinals would've gotten Nicasio for nothing, instead of giving up a piece
So I think Nicasio going to the Phillies sort of hit the reset button, so to speak.
Mac
11:05
So I noticed last night that prior to the indians win streak starting that they had a 27.6% of winning alcs, prior to yesterday's game it was also 27.6%...
Jeff Sullivan
11:06
Ultimately, not very much has changed. The odds always figured they would win the AL Central. The odds have always liked the Indians a lot. They look a little better now, of course, but over that span of time the Astros have also added Justin Verlander
Nolan
11:06
What do you think about the Rangers' wildcard chances?
Jeff Sullivan
11:06
They are not good
PF
11:06
How does the next MLB team come up? Relocation or expansion?
Jeff Sullivan
11:06
95% expansion, 5% relocation
Aaron
11:07
How much has Eric Thames' value changed since May/June? What would he get if he were a free agent this winter?
Jeff Sullivan
11:07
Thames since the start of June: 290 PA, 86 wRC+
11:08
As this has happened, guys like Smoak and Morrison and Alonso have emerged at the same position
Free-agent Thames, at this point, would probably get about the same contract as Chris Carter did last offseason
TKDC
11:08
Are the Giants the most disappointing team of all time from a projected record vs. actual record standpoint?
Jeff Sullivan
11:09
Well, we only have projections going back to about 2005 or so, but yes, they are right in the running. I've been thinking about that for a post when it's all said and done
ChiSox2020
11:09
How bad is the James Shield for Fernando Tatis Jr trade? Worse than giving up Dansby Swanson for Shelby Miller?
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