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Klawchat 10/5/17
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Keith Law
1:33
My sense is that there was a mixed view of him. I had a major agent call me out of the blue on Tuesday to talk about that whole story, and he said - unprompted - how much he liked Coppolella and enjoyed negotiating with (or against) him. I've heard more positive comments on him than negative since Monday. But this industry loves to smear people on their way out the door - look at what happened when Francona left Boston.
Kevin
1:34
After Reyes, which arms in the Cards system do you find most intriguing?
Keith Law
1:34
It's probably Alcantara, even with the up-and-down year.
Alan
1:34
What's your feelings on Dayton Moore to Atlanta?
Keith Law
1:36
I understand that the job will be his if he wants it. He'd fit their system, and he has worked there before, which I think all works in his favor. He's highly regarded as a person within the industry, too. A mutual friend suggested Tony Lacava -- full disclosure, I worked with Tony in Toronto and consider him a mentor - as someone who's worked under Hart and Schuerholz, has scouting & PD experience (as does Moore), and comes with a pristine reputation. If you just forced out your GM over ethical violations, you want your next hire to be squeaky clean.
Steve
1:36
In light of the Coppella investigation, do you think the O's concern over participating in the international market because of shady practices of buscones is warranted? It's possible to participate in the Latin America market "ethically" right?
Keith Law
1:36
You can participate ethically but you will likely be shut out of the top end of the market.
Dennis
1:36
Your favorite Ishiguro novel? Which would be the best to start with?
Keith Law
1:37
Remains of the Day is an absolute masterpiece of English fiction. Never Let Me Go is #2. Avoid The Unconsoled - I think it's an outright failure of a novel.
Salty
1:37
Keith - Eric Longenhagen mentioned in his chat the potential value someone like Gose could have as a LOOGY/pinch runner.  If he entered a game as a PR, could he stay in the game and pitch, and if so, would he then slot into the DH spot, with the defensive replacement slotting in to the spot vacated by the guy who was pinch-ran for?
Keith Law
1:38
You can't switch your DH spot in the lineup like that. BTW, Gose got hurt after a few innings, and I'm not very optimistic about him even if he stays healthy.
Craig
1:38
Is Adbert Alzolay the Cubs top prospect? Can he scratch his way onto the big league team as early as next summer?
Keith Law
1:38
Top pitching prospect and yes.
Andy
1:38
Dillon Maples had this breakout season. Does he regress, keep improving, or what? How does one predict this?
Keith Law
1:38
You don't. You just enjoy it. And I think this is very legit - the stuff matches up with the numbers.
Dennis
1:38
Do you think Jo Adell might end up in your Top 100?
Keith Law
1:39
Not this year.
Joe
1:39
Keith, what do you make of Blake Rutherford?  I know to not write him off, but it is mind-boggling that a kid of his talent and pedigree put up the kind of line in low-A.
Keith Law
1:39
Same. And the swing is fine. But the ball just didn't come off his bat well this year - poor exit velo, no power, didn't even sound that great (I saw him the day before he was traded).
Aaron
1:39
Keith, can you explain why there's often so much change in a prospect's ranking between the time of the draft & the end of the season? Do we really learn that much from a month or two of professional competition? Because otherwise, this screams Small Smaple Size, and you are one of the biggest anti-SSS-ites out there. ...maybe I've just answered my own question there...
Keith Law
1:40
I don't think there is, not in my rankings. If you compare my final predraft rankings to where those prospects appear on my top 100 the following winter, the order is generally very similar. Any changes would be more because post-draft more scouts & execs are willing to talk about players than they are pre-draft ("I really liked that guy, we were going to take him if they didn't").
Joe
1:41
Fair to say that the worst thing Coppy did was send the 2000 word text messages?  Honestly who does that?
Keith Law
1:41
I don't think I've ever even read a text message that took more than one screen.
Dan
1:41
Are you at all encouraged by Paul Ryan's comments on bump stocks? (I suppose I was, somewhere around 2% encouraged)
Keith Law
1:41
I wish I was but I've been burned by optimism before.
Oren
1:41
If you were the Jays GM, how seriously are you shopping Josh Donaldson this winter?
Keith Law
1:42
Very seriously. I generally don't say you *have* to trade a player, but you want to make it clear you're going to take the best offer if anything meets your standard.
MJ
1:42
Just finished your book and loved it. My question to you is do you think there is any chance at a big industry breakthrough regarding player health in the near or medium term future? Something with biometric data perhaps?
Keith Law
1:43
Having just read Erik Malinowski's Betaball, on the Golden State Warriors, which mentions a few technologies that team used to improve player health, I'm even more convinced now than I was before that baseball teams will invest heavily in such technologies (and probably already are, we just don't know about it) to try to reduce injuries.
Tim
1:43
Thoughts on Hader to the rotation in 2018?  Or does his stuff/approach play better in the pen?
Keith Law
1:44
Better in the pen, but I wouldn't blame the Brewers for at least giving him a chance to start and see if it works. He was great as a starter until he got to Colorado Springs, and that's not a fair test.
Boots Poffenberger
1:44
How good is Nick Neidert?
Keith Law
1:44
Very polished, not a big upside. Maybe a league-average starter?
Dennis
1:44
Who are some writers that you would like to see win the Nobel Prize for Literature?
Keith Law
1:47
I don't know that I could name one - I believe the honoree has to be still living, which eliminates the top 8 authors I've read (by # of titles), and as much as I enjoy the works of Jasper Fforde and J.K. Rowling I don't know that either is really a serious contender for the award.
Snit
1:47
With Coppy gone, how do you think this changes the Braves' plans for this offseason? Do you think they only kept Snitker because of scandal?
Keith Law
1:47
That's my sense - Snitker probably would have been replaced had this not happened. I expect this will change their modus operandi more than it changes specific plans - trades like the Gohara move are much less likely now.
HugoZ
1:47
Which team is more modern-metrics friendly--Royals or Blue Jays?
Keith Law
1:48
Both are pretty forward in that department; I get the sense the Blue Jays use it more, but that may just be that they're more open about it.
addoeh
1:48
The NRA has second highest membership of any group after AARP.  And like the AARP, they vote.  Until their members start leaving it because of how their leadership resistance to any sort of changes in the law, there will never be any changes.
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