JotCast | Klawchat 3/21/18

Klawchat 3/21/18

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Keith Law

1:14

Only if there's an unrestricted international free agent out there. I guess if Yusei Kikuchi is posted next winter, he'd be a candidate.

Slick Rick Hahn

1:15

Giolito looking promising, Fulmer... not so much. Who's spring means more to you, Giolito's improvement or Fulmer's complete lack of command?

Keith Law

1:15

Giolito's stuff improvement means more than his results. I've said since he was a sophomore that I don't believe Fulmer can start. Nothing here has changed.

Preston

1:16

What are reasonable expectations for Tyler Chatwood this year? I don't want the only expectation to be simply "better than Lackey," but that's where I am right now. And he'll at least surpass that.

Keith Law

1:18

150-160 innings of a 4ish ERA and 2 WAR. I know teams that lean heavily on Statcast info believe he has upside based on that, but I think he has other question marks, like control or lack of an effective change, that remain.

Dan

1:18

Do college coaches hide player birthdays from prospective teams (or at least not make them publicly available) for guys who are potential draft eligible sophs? Or is there too much coverage now for this info to be effectively hidden?

Keith Law

1:18

You can't hide that info. Even if they tried, the players' advisers would get it out there.

Boris

1:18

breakout players article coming soon?

Keith Law

1:18

I believe I answered that with the opening quote.

BRIAN

1:18

If you were the Yankee brass, would you consider moving Sanchez from behind the plate? No DH at bats are really available. His bat is probably the best on the team. His catching is "average" at best. Wouldnt the team be better off with him playing 150 games rather than 120 and being beaten up?

Keith Law

1:19

If they find a better option, yes, I would, for the reason you cite at the end - an extra 120 or so PA plus reduced injury risk. However, I'd like to see Greg Bird show he can play a remotely capable 1B before giving Sanchez the DH spot.

Alex

1:19

What's the last thing you cooked sous vide?

Keith Law

1:20

Duck, I think. Been a few weeks since I busted that out with all my travel and dealing with this weather nonsense. I've pushed back three trips now due to weather - two snowstorms here, and one rainout in Georgia.

1:20

If the Red Sox come to a roster crunch when Pedroia comes off the DL, would you rather trade/DFA: Leon, Swihart, Vasquez, or Holt? I’d vote Holt, if only because Sale supposedly likes having Leon catch for him.

Keith Law

1:20

Probably Holt. Nice bench player, will definitely be claimed if they just waive him, but now I'm punting on Swihart.

Mike

1:22

Sean Newcomb looking good this spring with limiting his walks/balls thrown. I can’t help but thinking he could break out this season. What should my realistic expectations be?

Keith Law

1:23

Realistic expectations would require ignoring his spring training stats and expecting his control to be where it was last year. (One anecdote in favor of my argument about ST stats: Newcomb's best start of the spring, on 3/12, came against a Phillies lineup with Adam Rosales at 1b, Pedro Florimon in LF, and Jesmuel Valentin at 3b.)

Ben

1:23

Did you get to see Jesus Lazardo in AZ? Is it unreasonable to think that Lazardo could surpass AJ Puk as a prospect by the end of this season? Thanks.

Keith Law

1:24

I didn't see him, but no, I don't think that's reasonable to think. Puk is the #2 LH prospect in baseball, and he's been continuously improving since he signed.

Ryan

1:24

I'm a Mets fan who's interested in seeing how Dom and Rosario develop. Putting aside the issues the team must have with the latter, what do you think fair projections are for both if they are given a chance to play regularly?

Keith Law

1:27

The team seems to have weird issues with both, but I would guess Rosario would hit .270-280 with low walk & strikeout rates and maybe 8-10 homers, adding value on defense; while Smith would be more .280/.340/.420 sort of range. I looked at ZiPS for Smith, and Dan has him .272/.324/.430 with 20 HR in 156 g. That seems very reasonable to me too.

HugoZ

1:27

To stop the service time games, how about making 90 days on the 25-man anytime during a season be the definition of a "year" of service time?

Keith Law

1:28

I believe if you do that you'll see a lot of guys with 89 days of service each year. Wherever you set the bar, you will see teams respond to it in kind.

1:28

Do teams monitor what other teams are doing in player development?

Keith Law

1:28

Yes but player development is much more opaque than scouting (to other teams or to us).

Adam B

1:28

If Nick Senzel plays full time at SS or 2B how much does his value increase? Do you think he can handle playing SS?

Keith Law

1:28

I think he'll be well below average at short and it might offset the entire positional gain.

Chris

1:28

Tyler Wade could be the Yankees opening day 2nd baseman! That was less of a question than a statement. He reminds me a lot of Brett Gardner, is that a fair comp?

Keith Law

1:28

I don't see that. I like Wade, but he's not similar to Gardner.

Zach

1:29

Keith: long-time reader, first time ask-er. Can Nick Senzel handle the switch to 2B defensively? I assume if so, then this raises his profile as his bat plays up there.

Keith Law

1:29

The positional adjustment for 2b isn't much different, if at all, than that for 3b, I think, so while I believe he'll be able to handle 2b, it probably doesn't change his value right now.

Mike B

1:29

This may need too detailed an answer for a chat, but I had a question about the overall effect of "tanking." While tanking may be the best option for a team that cant compete, can we reach the point where too many teams see tanking as the best option and it begins to turn off fans? The optimal course of action for a team, may hurt the league as a whole if too many teams see that as the best option. Do you think we are close to that point?

Keith Law

1:30

No, but I think we are reaching the point where the media have convinced a lot of fans that tanking is more prevalent in baseball than it actually is.

Johnny B. Savage

1:30

Griffin Canning was reportedly sitting 94-96 yesterday in a three inning stint. *IF* this is true, could be go from a 4/5 to a 3/4 in the future?

Keith Law

1:30

No, because I doubt he can hold that velocity as a starter and stay healthy, given what teams disliked about his medicals before the draft.

1:30

I think state funded elections (no outside contributions), and drawing districts with a bipartisan panel to represent districts fairly would fix most of the problems in this country - right or wrong?

Keith Law

1:31

Who funds those elections? (I mean, taxpayers do, but they won't like it.) And who decides how much each candidate gets?

Adam B

1:31

Would you move Suarez back to SS and keep Senzel playing 3rd?

Keith Law

1:31

Yes, but that ship appears to have sailed.

Dan410

1:31

On a scale of 1 to Trump, how stupid is Liriano starting instead of Daniel Norris?