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Klawchat 8/31/17
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Otanimania
1:12
If you were a GM who was told by Otani's agent that allowing him to hit was a mandatory part of signing him would you do it?  I imagine given the IFA restrictions his decision will probably come down to something like that
Keith Law
1:12
If we're doing handshake deals I'd rather do one that says, hey, we'll tear this up in a year and give you $20MM a year than hamstring myself like that given the probability that he's not even an adequate MLB hitter.
Rob K
1:12
Terry keeps pinch hitting for Dom Smith against lefties. Jose Reyes is on pace to lead the Mets in plate appearances. Sandy had to prioritize dumping payroll over restocking a now-empty farm system. The only treatment for Matz's clearly swollen elbow (before season-ending surgery) was weeks of injecting painkillers. No question, I am just sad.
Keith Law
1:12
No answer other than that Teflon Terry needed to be gone a year ago.
Your Honor
1:13
How worried should the Yankees be about Aaron Judge's post all star break?  Have you seen anything in his swing that would indicate he's hurt or is it just something wrong mechanically?  It just seems very odd that his hard hit ball% would fall off a cliff so suddenly.
Keith Law
1:13
He is hurt, right? I'm pretty sure the shoulder is a problem.
chito
1:13
Why is Allard ranked higher in most prospect rankings than Soroka? Thanks!
Keith Law
1:13
LHP with plus CB vs low-slot RHP without.
Jake Lewis
1:13
Can you talk for a little bit about Miguel Castro? The Kids been filthy ever since he got called up in Baltimore. Thoughts on his long term as a SP?
Keith Law
1:13
More likely a reliever but an electric arm.
ExExpos
1:24
Taylor Ward, Matt Thaiss and Jahmai Jones have been doing well after their recent promotions. Do any have a shot at being in your top 100? And do you think Thaiss could develop more power?
Keith Law
1:25
Jones was already there. Ward has no shot - why would you just ignore how awful he was in a larger sample before the promotion? I don't think Thaiss will develop more than average power, if that; he's a high hit tool/low power type.
Derek
1:25
If you squint, Robles's 2017 numbers don't look all that different from Acuna's. Numbers wise, Robles was better in High-A and not quite as good in AA. Robles has high BABIPs, though not completely insane for a fast guy who makes good contact. Acuna's numbers are clearly inflated - though surely just somewhat - by his pushing .400 BABIP. If Acuna merits a call-up in September, doesn't Robles? Yes, the Nats aren't going to do this, but should they? They need OF help in the short term with Harper out and maybe Robles is lightning in a bottle. Why not give him a look?
Keith Law
1:26
There are service-time/40-man reasons not to promote a guy before he's needed, especially if he's not likely to be on the OD roster the next year. Not least is that if he gets hurt, now or in March, you're going to have to carry him on the major-league DL, pay him a ML salary, and give him service time while he's out. Bigger risk for pitchers, obviously.
Advanced
1:26
Do you view statcast stuff like spinrate, exit velocity, launch angle, perceived velocity, etc as a way to put a number on things scouts pick up on?
Keith Law
1:26
Some. I discuss this at length in the last few chapters of Smart Baseball.
addoeh
1:26
I know rosters expanding to 40 in September gives some guys a chance to play in the majors and some young players experience.  But shouldn't we still keep a 25 man roster for the games?  That 25 man roster can change every day if managers want to, giving players opportunities to play.  But it seems better solution than each team having 15-20 pitchers in the bullpen and countless pitching changes.  These games still have meaning and it seems silly to play 80% of the year with one set of rules and 20% with another set.  Agree?
Keith Law
1:27
I'd be fine with 28-man rosters, a nod to the need to maybe ease up on some pitchers and rotate some hitters out but still let them get 2 AB for themselves or for the fans (like in spring training). 40 is bonkers.
jay_B
1:27
Over/under two 3-WAR seasons for Kyle Schwarber in his career? BABIP in the 230s is going to make it tough.
Keith Law
1:27
I do not believe he's a .230 BABIP guy. I'll say over.
AD
1:27
How do you think society can get to a point where things like anxiety, depression, and substance addiction are widely viewed/treated as the diseases that they are instead of a state of mind or a defect?
Keith Law
1:28
Eh, we're a long way from that. We can't even seem to accept that a trans person is an actual person.
Chris
1:28
Thanks for another chat, Keith. I'm a Mets fan and readily and freely admit many Mets fans are panicky clowns. Many are already having the vapors over Dom Smith's weight/lack of immediate production. What do I tell my friends who are ready to move Smith in favor of Peter Alonso, who is older than Smith but only now in AA and off to a good start there? I'll just go on ignoring all together the ones wanting to bring back Jay Bruce to play 1b.
Keith Law
1:28
You need better friends.
Derek
1:29
Assuming Eaton is healthy in 2018, do you think the Nats should (a) put Eaton in CF and pursue a corner guy in a trade/FA; or (b) platoon Michael A. Taylor and Brian Goodwin and invest resources elsewhere? Put another way, is a MAT/Goodwin platoon good enough for a club that has WS aspirations in 2018?
Keith Law
1:29
Harper's last year means you go all in.
Satya
1:29
Hi Keith, is it too early to get excited by Austin Riley's better numbers at AA than he had at A+?  And has he made swing adjustments to help overcome his slow bat speed?
Keith Law
1:30
He's striking out at a much higher rate in AA. And a good rule of thumb is that if a guy stunk at high-A and then has 100 good AB in AA, the first part is real.
Benny
1:30
I saw your tweet about Greg Allen's call-up. Think he can be a starter or more of a 4OF type?
Keith Law
1:30
4OF. Zero power, and not a super-disciplined guy for high OBPs. Plus I can't see pitchers pitching around him much.
J
1:30
Vlad the Impaler with Impaling Discipline is doing more than fine at High-A at age 18 (33/26 BB/K).  Start 2018 at AA?  Or do they slow him down a bit and return to Dunedin?
Keith Law
1:31
I bet he starts in Dunedin and gets to AA around May 1st when the snow melts.
Rob
1:31
What are your overall impressions of Villains? I feel like the album starts out and closes very strong, but really falls flat in the middle. Thanks.
Keith Law
1:31
Two great tracks, a lot of solid album tracks. Planning to listen to it again on my drive to Reading tonight.
Nate
1:31
Keith,  My observation of Moncada has been his high k-rates have been a lot about a passive approach.  Has this always been the case?
Keith Law
1:31
No, he has trouble getting the bat head to the zone in time especially on stuff in on his hands.
Jason
1:32
What do you see as a realistic outcome for Scott Kingery's career? I've seen on other chats that you've compared him to Altuve but do you see that as his ceiling? Or is he a star?
Keith Law
1:33
If he develops some patience - he really just goes after the first pitch he can hit, and so far, he's hit most of them - he could turn into an Altuve type, but that's a top 5% kind of outcome. Very few players go from this sort of approach to Altuve's level of patience.
Sean
1:33
When will you admit that you were wrong about Dylan Bundy?
Keith Law
1:34
Maybe when I'm wrong about him. Pro tip: "When will you admit..." is a grade 20 approach.
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