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MLBTR 2022-23 Offseason Chat: Philadelphia Phillies
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Steve Adams
11:14
Greetings all! We'll get this underway in a couple hours at 2pm ET / 1pm CT. Looking forward to talking Phillies with everyone!

Feel free to start asking questions in advance, and be sure to circle back and participate live. In the meantime, you can check out  some details on our free weekday morning newsletter and on our Trade Rumors Front Office subscription, which includes ad-free viewing, regular subscriber-only chats and mailbags, exclusive columns (from Anthony and myself) and fantasy baseball advice (from Brad Johnson) in your email inbox, autograph giveaways, and more.

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1:01
Let's get things underway! Greetings all
ooklah the mok
1:01
Word is the Phils may use the #5 slot on a rotating basis? I hope they don't mess with the aaa trio...Once up, if they perform, keep 'em up. Let Falter begin the season, with Sanchez as the swing. Painter/Abel/McGarry are too valuable to "spencer howard" them...What do you think Dombrowski's plan is for them...
Steve Adams
1:05
Dombrowski all but said last week that that the plan is to add one veteran starting pitcher and then entrust the fifth spot to a younger, in-house arm. Falter's got to be first in line after a pretty solid showing in 2022, so I imagine your rotation to begin 2023 goes Wheeler-Nola-Suarez-[TBD Free agent/trade acquisition]-Falter

Over the course of the season, there'll be injuries, struggles from incumbent options, etc. I agree that you don't want to just constantly shuttle someone like Painter back and forth between Lehigh Valley and Philly for one or two spot starts at a time. I'd expect the starting five I listed to open up, and then if a longer-term need arises -- someone in the rotation is out for two months with a shoulder or something -- then whoever's leading the Painter/Abel/etc. pack should get a look.
Dealin Dave
1:05
is there a shot that Dave moves Castellanos somewhere and gets to use that salary elsewhere? perhaps on Rodon?
Steve Adams
1:06
They don't need to move Castellanos to be able to spend on Rodon
1:07
The Phillies' current payroll projection is around $179MM (and $191MM for luxury purposes). They're well south of where they were in 2022 since they've had Segura, Eflin, Gibson, Knebel, Hand, etc. all come off the books.
Trading Castellanos means eating a portion of contract to make him go away, and I don't think that's in the cards, even after a pretty poor first season in Philly
Fre5hwind
1:08
Sam Coonrod worth his contract?
Steve Adams
1:08
It's barely north of league minimum for a guy who averages better than 97 with his heater and has a minor league option left.
1:09
Perfectly reasonable to keep him around, especially since you can just send him to the IronPigs to try to keep working things out. And if they want to cut him in Spring Training, he'd only be owed 30 days' termination pay (if he's cut in the first half of camp) or 45 days (if he's cut in the second half).

Arb deals aren't fully guaranteed.
David Robertson
1:10
Am I coming back on something like 1yr/8m or do I get more moolah?
Steve Adams
1:11
If you're D-Rob and you see Daniel Bard signing for two years without even needing to go to the open market, I think you're saying "Yeah, I'm getting two years, too."

Unless he just only wants to go year-by-year because he's not sure how long he plans to continue. But he hasn't given any indication, that I've seen, that he's considering retiring in the near future.
Guest
1:12
What would an extension for Nola look like?
Steve Adams
1:15
Phillies could try to model something after the Luis Castillo (5/108), Joe Musgrove (5/100) and Jose Berrios (7/131) deals, all of which came with the player a year (or less) from free agency. But I think each of those was surprisingly light, given the pitchers' track records.

If Nola has a typical Nola season and reaches free agency next year as a 30-year-old (turning 31 in June of his first free-agent year), I think we'd probably be kicking around six-year deals worth in excess of $150MM.
PhilliesFan52
1:16
should The Phillies consider getting rid of Hoskins and signing a better defensive player?
Steve Adams
1:19
I think you could consider moving Hoskins just because he's a $12.5MM-ish first-base/DH only with one year of team control left. I don't know that the Phils will for sure want to QO him next offseason (probably, as long as the bat doesn't completely tank, but it's not a slam dunk).

Trading Hoskins creates a bit more flexibility, opens the idea of moving Bohm to first base -- I know a lot of Phils fans were heartened by some nice plays in the postseason, but the broad track record at 3B is not good -- and creates the possibility of improving your defense at multiple spots on the diamond.

To be clear, I don't think they'll outright shop him or anything, but listening to offers with an eye on improving the defense as a whole? Sure.
Eggbo
1:19
I didn't watch one playoff or ws game...bc I didn't want to be disappointed.   And then I decided to watch the last 3 games...and they lost.  Did I jinx my team
Steve Adams
1:19
It's probably your fault, yes.
1:20
I joke! You missed some epic comebacks and fun along the way though. Watch next year! Following a team you just expect to disappoint you feels like a joyless way to take in sports.
Wrong Link
1:21
The wrong chat link is posted in the dedicated-chat post on the website.
Steve Adams
1:21
That explains the lower number of participants than I expected! (Though we've still been getting a good number of questions) Thanks.
Updated and going to send out a tweet with the right link quickly. Appreciate it
1:23
Ok, back at it.
Jake from Geico
1:23
why do you think people see a future with Bohm? He seems like a below average player to me?
Steve Adams
1:24
He's a former top prospect and No. 3 overall pick who's still only 26. Last year's offense was pretty much dead-average, by wRC+ and OPS+, but he had a big rookie season and still has pretty impressive batted-ball metrics in terms of exit velo, barrels, hard-hit%, etc.
Sean Dupont
1:24
Will trea just hurry up and sign here so I can relax lol
Steve Adams
1:25
I'll text him and tell him to hustle for you.
Really though, I've already had plenty of questions about the "slow" shortstop market and "slow" free-agent market in general. This is just the way the MLB offseason works. It's glacial.
Stan
1:26
I keep seeing people all but preordering their Trea Turner Phillies jerseys. But realistically, with the money they’ve already spent AND with a Nola extension looming, is it likely? Even stupid money runs out.
Steve Adams
1:27
As I said before, the Phillies are at $179MM in actual 2023 payroll and $191MM in luxury payroll. Even if you assume Turner's getting $35MM annually, that alone doesn't push them into the luxury penalty. Signing Turner and extending Nola definitely would, but there's no guarantee Nola's going to sign a long-term deal or anything.
Anthony
1:28
Do you think Andrew Heaney would be a good fit? Feel like Cotham would get enough out of him to sustain his small breakout.
Steve Adams
1:30
I love Heaney in general, but if there's one flaw in his game even if you completely buy the death-incarnate slider he adopted in 2022 (which I mostly do)... it's home runs. Not sure Citizens Bank is the ideal setting for him in that context.

If they signed him to anything at or under the 3/42 we predicted though, I'm probably going to like the deal. I'm very much in on this version of Andrew Heaney, even if someone decides he needs to move to the 'pen and just go all in on a two-pitch approach.
Jameson Taillon
1:30
Do I make sense as a Philly fit?
Steve Adams
1:30
He's a solid No. 3/4 starter who they'd be plugging into the 3/4 spot in the rotation. Sure
Mark
1:31
It feels like the team overachieved this season so is it fair to keep expectations high or not be surprised if the team takes a step back in '23?
Steve Adams
1:32
Feels more like they underachieved early, overachieved in the middle and then underachieved for the final couple weeks until catching fire in the playoffs.

Overall, I think the foundation of a good team is just here. As for your 2023 expectations, no sense setting them before we see how they'll actually address the roster. If it's "We traded for Amed Rosario and signed Drew Smyly to fill the No. 4 spot," yeah, you can temper your expectations a bit..... but I don't think that's how Dombrowski's going to react to a run to Game 6 of the World Series, either.
John
1:33
What are the odds you would place on the Phillies signing one of the Big 4 SS? I tend to think it's rather high, 75-80%?
Steve Adams
1:35
I don't have a scientific way of placing odds on it or anything, but I feel they're a fairly likely landing spot for one of them and picked them to sign one of the four. I feel it's likelier than not that they come away with either a notable SS or that they go nuts and sign Verlander or something.

We have a pretty long track record to look at with Dombrowski-led teams, and they don't tend to sit back and say "Well let's just focus on improving around the margins."
John
1:35
Trea Turner to Phillies for 8/$260MM?
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