JotCast | MLBTR Chat with Steve Adams 2-23-16

MLBTR Chat with Steve Adams 2-23-16

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Michael

2:44

Marlins contend when?

Steve Adams

2:45

If they make a run this season, I won't be surprised. They need Fernandez and Stanton to both stay healthy for a full year, of course, but with Gordon, Yelich, Ozuna, Chen, Ramos, Capps, Hechavarria's glove -- there's a lot to like about the roster. Health permitting, they'll be better than many people are giving them credit for.

Evan

2:46

Looks like the Reds have pulled out of signing Alfredo Rodriguez. I am I missing something or is this true to your knowledge?

Steve Adams

2:46

Have actually been trying to confirm that myself.

caseysternslovechild

2:46

braves are a rotation away from being a .500 club?

Steve Adams

2:47

A rotation, a few bullpen upgrades, a second baseman and a few outfielders.

They'll be real good by 2018 probably, but not expecting anything this year.

Walt Jockety

2:47

Am I crazy for trying to trade Bruce now?

Steve Adams

2:49

I don't know why you don't just hang onto him and see if he can up his value with a big first half in 2016. He was hitting pretty well until August this past year, and the knee provides a very plausible explanation for his 2014-15 decline. If you're already going to receive poor value on him, may as well just wait to see if his trade stock rises. Missing out on adding some org guys right now in a trade isn't a terrible outcome.

Nick

2:49

Should the Bucs consider signing david freese? Or Is kang at SS a stretch after last year?

Steve Adams

2:50

I think they absolutely should. I'm not a huge Mercer fan. You're right that Kang's ability to handle shortstop after his knee injury might give them pause, but if they feel he can eventually handle the position, Freese makes that team better.

Adams Bomb

2:50

Are the braves "tanking" and is this an issue that needs to be addressed in the CBA from your point of view?

Steve Adams

2:53

The "tanking" narrative is silly. It's not an entirely new phenomenon, and the current draft system is set up in such a manner that what the Braves, Phillies and Brewers are doing is just plain logical. I'm surprised the Rockies aren't acting in that manner. Padres, too. Bad teams have always traded away players to restock their farm system, etc. It's only such a hot-button topic right now because the CBA negotiations are coming up, and there are a lot of reasons for those in the industry to speak up about it in chatting with the media to create more discussion and more urgency for changes in the CBA.

Ben N-S

2:53

Favorite baseball movie?

Steve Adams

2:54

Will always have a soft spot for Major League. Also Little Big League, since I'm from Minnesota.

Michael

2:54

Do the Cardinals need to draft a position player or pitcher in the upcoming draft?

Steve Adams

2:55

That's not how teams approach their top pick in the draft. You're talking about a kid who in the absolute best-case scenario will contribute in late 2017. Teams take the best player available. It's not like the NBA or NFL where the player you draft will be playing in games for your team a couple of months later. There are very, very rare exceptions in baseball, of course, but that type of thinking doesn't dictate draft decisions.

kutz

2:56

isn't mark buehrle worth a minor league contract for the cardinals? I don't understand this

Steve Adams

2:56

He's not sure he wants to keep playing. I'm sure if Buehrle told his agent to call John Mozeliak and say "Hey how bout a Minor League deal with a $2MM base and tons of incentives," Mozeliak would say "get down here for a physical," but that's apparently not where Buehrle's head is at present.

TAkid

2:57

Why won''t the White Sox sign Fowler - is it the money or the draft pick and do either of those makes any sense?

Steve Adams

2:57

Seems more pick-related. Neither makes sense to me. Fowler's going to end up as a steal for someone.

Hal

2:58

Do you see me sticking with the Core 4 theory and not going after Cespedes next winter or Bryce in a few?

Steve Adams

3:00

As the long-term obligations around the roster begin to dissipate, I expect the Yankees will be active once again in free agency. They could be monster players on the insane 2018-19 free agent class for instance. That'll have Machado, Donaldson, Harper, Pollock, McCutchen, Fernandez, Harvey, Keuchel, Kershaw, Brantley all off the top of my head.

Granted, some of those players will decline, get injured, sign extensions -- but the class is going to be comically impressive still.

Mr Sunshine

3:00

What do you think of the TJS-probability data MLBTR just revealed? Will it make teams shy away from some guys, either as roster adds or at negotiations?

Steve Adams

3:01

I thought Bradley's work was great. It's not designed to make any actual predictions about Tommy John or to say "Brandon Morrow and Jesse Hahn are going to get it." Even the most at-risk players on the list fell between six and seven percent. I love that it attempts to isolate some statistical contributors that can eventually be incorporated as the science behind preventing the injury continues to evolve, though. It's not a solution, nor is it intended to be one. It's one small piece to a daunting puzzle, and I found the work to be fascinating.

Logan

3:02

Do you see the Braves as a dark horse candidate for Fowler/Desmond at this point?

Steve Adams

3:03

They're still in talent accumulation mode for the most part -- I guess either could technically be a trade chip, but they'd still require punting a pick that Atlanta would very much like to have (and the draft money with which said pick is associated). In a word: Nah.

john

3:03

Do Carl Crawford and Alex Guerrero break ST with LAD? If no, where do they go?

Steve Adams

3:05

I think Crawford will, yeah. Guerrero strikes me as a likely release candidate, at which point there are probably quite a few teams that would roll the dice on him as infield depth. -- Giants, Indians, White Sox, A's, etc.

Ben

3:05

Twins sign Desmond then trade him at the deadline?

Steve Adams

3:05

I like the Desmond/Minnesota fit, personally, but they've gone out of their way to put out to the media that they're not going to sign one of the draft-pick free agents, as I recall.

Phil A. Delphia

3:06

do you think the Phillies should cut ryan howard and sign pedro alvarez?

Steve Adams

3:06

So they can pay two platoon first basemen with poor defensive skills and a high strikeout rate? I'm not overly fond of the idea, no.

Justin

3:06

We're do the Tigers finish this year?

Steve Adams

3:09

Jeff and I have chatted about this quite a bit recently -- we could legitimately see any of the five teams in that division winning and the entire field being separated by only a handful of games. It's a crappy answer, but I haven't taken the time to go ahead and make my yearly futile division picks yet. I'll have a better answer in a few weeks, and then we can all look back and chuckle at how wrong I was in October.

Wes Welker

3:09

With the concussions mounting, will Justin Morneau sign anywhere soon?

Steve Adams

3:09

I figure he'll latch on somewhere in Spring Training. Houston makes sense right now, and an injury could open up a spot for a 1B/DH.

Lou

3:10

When do you think Berrios makes his MLB début?

Steve Adams

3:10

Mid to late June unless injuries force him up sooner.