JotCast | Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

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Paul Sporer

11:18

I'm on the Hoskins train generally speaking, but I think you go for the SP here, espec. if you have Bird & Olson from the previous question

Jalepeno Hannah

11:19

O/U on Tiger's wins next year? 75?

Paul Sporer

11:19

Under, 71

Matt

11:19

If the Yankees get past Houston and let's say beats LA. Would that be the most impressive/difficult postseason run of all time? I mean Cleveland, Houston, LA is quite the run

Paul Sporer

11:20

It'd be very impressive, but I don't have the catalog of knowledge to say it's the best. I knew these mf'ers would make some noise once they made those trades. Solid lineup top to bottom (with 2 superstars in Judge & Sanchez, too, so let's not sell the O short), elite & super deep pen, and a solid rotation that won't even tax the pen all the time (espec. as we've seen Sevvy rebound from the WC disaster and Tanaka pitch brilliantly)

FGM

11:20

#4 pick in a start up Dynasty roto league. Arenado or Correa?

Paul Sporer

11:21

Ooh that's tough, big fan of both. Gonna lean Arenado, though

Steve

11:21

What do you see the White Sox doing this offseason?

Paul Sporer

11:23

Probably just moves around the edges as they continue to build up. *Maaayyyybbeee* trade Abreu, but I also think they like the idea of him as the veteran centerpiece when the prospects start to develop

Sterling Mallory Chris Archer

11:23

Paul, you’re awesome but I have a confession. In August I asked in a chat how soon is too soon to celebrate winning a league. You said that any star player could go down quickly. That same week Bryce went down. I ended up getting caught in a tie on the last day, and Daniel F’n Megden threw a gem on the last day to save my season. No question really, just thanks for all of your help and advice that brought me my 3rd title in 5 years.

Paul Sporer

11:24

Hot damn, it's that sexy Mengden Mustache!!!!

I didn't even celebrate the success I was having in July/August, but my teams still shit the bed in September for fun. It was like nothing I'd ever seen. Just collapse after collapse in my leagues

69 (Nice!)

11:25

Keeper question! 10-team ESPN mixed roto 6x6 (OPS and K/BB), standard $260 budget with six keepers. Which six would you pick from Votto ($30), Corey Seager ($16), Bregman ($11), Benintendi ($11), Paxton ($9) and any of the following at $6: Hoskins, Bour, Happ, Smoak, Acuna, Berrios, or Luis Castillo?

Paul Sporer

11:26

Votto, Seager, Breg, Beni, Pax, and Hoskins. I miiiight consider Berrios or Castillo over Paxton and save the $3

David

11:26

Do you think Manaea will be a good starter this year?

Paul Sporer

11:26

Comes down to health for sure. He clearly wasn't right in the 2H and that sunk his season. Tons of talent, though

Keith Hernandez

11:26

How high are you on Alex Reyes for next year?

Paul Sporer

11:27

For next year, I'm tempering expectations. I slotted him 63rd - https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/october-2018-starting-pitcher-rankin...

Just don't want to get overzealous in the return from the TJ year

NtflxnRichHill

11:28

Usually I'll run standard points gained to help with my projections, but for pitchers, it really sings guys that are "more injury prone" relatively speaking, but I feel like 22 starts from Paxton plus 8-10 starts from a waiver wire pick up is more valuable than...oh I don't know..rick porcello who regularly makes 30+ starts. How does the almighty Paul deal with this?

Paul Sporer

11:28

I completely agree with this outlook and I think we really need to start changing out values of shortened season players as we see fewer and fewer guys log 30 starts or 600 PA

11:29

As for how, I'm not sure there's a totally scientific way, but I'm going to be exploring the topic in a future piece

NtflxnRichHill

11:29

Hey Paul, nice to have someone in here besides that drunk hack, Eno. Check this xwOBA based FIP (((xwOBA×1.33×(TBF))+(3×BB)+(3×HBP))-(2×K))/IP+3.125 It correlates better year to year with ERA (2015,16,17) than FIP but it feels simple and dumb because my 1.33 is somewhat arbitrary and only arrived upon because FIP uses 13 × HR

Paul Sporer

11:30

I'm simple & dumb, this looks like actual work went into it

Captain Video

11:30

Arrieta back to cubs? If not, what's your prediction ?

Paul Sporer

11:31

Ooh, I don't think they're gonna give him what he wants. I think they realize he's not someone who is going to hold up for a 5-year deal

I'll say the Angels will overpay

David

11:31

Josh Hader: what will he be?

Paul Sporer

11:32

A pitcher... derp, derp, derp, I'm so funny

Opens season as RP and shifts to SP

Brian

11:32

Worried about rhys HOskins' finish at all? Another Shane spencer?

Paul Sporer

11:35

Shane Spencer wasn't showing the kind of skills Hoskins did. Not really worried. It's almost like Newton's Law of Baseball - for every blazing hot streak, there's an equal but opposite cold streak. It's not 100%, but it happens A LOT. Judge had his. Jose Ramirez unfortunately had his in the posteason

HappyFunBall

11:35

I like Brian Goodwin as an extremely useful 4th OF ... but not really a starter on a contending team. Exactly the role he played this year and will in 2018 for the Nats. What are the chances some other MLB GM thinks highly enough of him to offer a useful player back in trade? When I say useful, I mean 3rd starter, competent catcher, or prospect with real ceiling.

Paul Sporer

11:36

Nah, he's gonna be 27 next year, I don't think anyone is trying to overpay for him. I think they're best served keeping him. Go buy a C and some bullpen to go with Doolittle & Madson, and then run it back

John Stamos

11:36

I heard there would be ludes here?

Paul Sporer

11:38

We passed out the ludes right before the chat started, but here's a musical interlude of hot little jam

Hannah Hochevar

11:38

You and Eno were pretty spot on about the Astro's jumping out to a surprisingly surmountable 2-0 lead. What happens next?

Paul Sporer

11:38

Series doesn't start until a home team loses! I think JV gets it Friday and we get a bananas game 7

Brian

11:39

Rizzo at 2b? Bregman at SS? Austin Barnes at 2b?

Paul Sporer

11:40

Not entirely sure what you're asking. In most leagues, Rizzo won't qualify at 2B next yr bc he doesn't have any starts there. Bregman got 20+ at SS so he'll be eligible there next year which is awesome. And Barnes is best used at C. It's nice to have the 2B in case you stumble on a C breakout and have excess

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