JotCast | MLBTR Live Chat with Steve Adams -- 7/27/16

MLBTR Live Chat with Steve Adams -- 7/27/16

Steve Adams

3:23

Hello! Feel free to discuss baseball trades, the baseball offseason, and Pokemon Go with me to your heart's content over the next hour or so.

Pop dog

3:23

Do you think that Chris Archer will be traded before the deadline?

Steve Adams

3:25

I don't. The Rays would have a hard time extracting max value even if he were pitching at his best right now because his contract has SO much surplus value, and he's, what? -- maybe pitching at 70-80% of his capabilities? The Rays are valuing him like he's pitching at his best, as they should due to the aforementioned surplus value, but I can't see a team ponying up for a pitcher who's underperforming to that level.

Nor can I see Tampa Bay just selling low to sell low. There's no incentive. He's controllable for another five years at something like $40MM. It's crazy.

james

3:25

what type of return will cashner bring

Steve Adams

3:27

The pitching market is thin enough and there's enough intrigue surrounding his arm (plus the belief that there's some untapped upside there) that he could bring in a Top 5-10 type from a weak farm system (or two mid-tier guys from said system). For a deeper farm, adjust accordingly -- maybe one guy in the 8-12 range or a couple of guys in that 15-25 tier.

3:28

Putting exact names on these types of things is always the request, but it's such a stab in the dark that I feel it's misleading to just say "Oh he'll fetch [Player X]." Even the teams they're talking with are probably still bouncing various names around.

Chuck

3:28

Are the Cubs done trading?

Steve Adams

3:29

Nah I can still see them adding an outfielder to the mix.

Brian

3:29

Will the Indians make a move, and will it be something to be excited about or small organizational pieces to fill holes by injuries/ poor performances this season?

Steve Adams

3:31

I can't fathom them standing pat. Biggest move they could realistically make would be Lucroy+Smith from Milwaukee to fill both of their biggest needs. For what it's worth, I don't buy the company line that they're content with Perez and Gimenez catching for the remainder of the year. Even if they think Gomes is coming back, they need an upgrade behind the dish. I think they're for sure adding a LH reliever, and if I had to make a firm prediction, I'd say they end up with a catcher, too.

Ryan

3:31

Yesterday, Rob Antony said he didn't want to trade Ervin Santana because that would mean he had to go back into free agency to sign a replacement. This is crazy, right?

Steve Adams

3:33

I didn't necessarily interpret it that way. He said he didn't want to shop Ervin because he felt that there isn't a comparable pitcher out there that would settle for 2/28 with a club option on the open market. I think that's a fair assessment of Ervin's contract, and I think it speaks to the fact that even though he's well compensated there's a bit of surplus value there.

Antony's comment of "then we might need another veteran" doesn't indicate he'd have to sign someone -- just bring someone in from outside the org. Given the youth and injuries throughout their rotation, I'd be inclined to say he's right there as well.

Hit hem with the Hein

3:33

Can the Blue Jays still afford to put Sanchez in the pen while in a pennant chase and who takes his spot?

Steve Adams

3:34

I think they can, yeah, especially if they go get a starter from outside the organization. It weakens their rotation, to be sure, though Sanchez in the 'pen also seriously strengthens the relief corps. If they really feel it's medically in his best interest to move him to the bullpen as well, then I say go for it, tough as it'll be for fans to swallow.

Longo

3:34

Am I staying put?

Steve Adams

3:35

Would be stunned if the Rays moved Longoria. There's not an enormous demand for third basemen in the first place, and they'd need to be bowled over. Maybe some clubs will get more serious this winter but I don't think he's going anywhere in the next five days.

Curt

3:35

Is reddick a real possibility fr the Cubs

Steve Adams

3:36

Sure. A's are selling, Theo and Jed like him quite a bit, and he allows them to add another left-handed bat to the mix while shifting Contreras back behind the plate with more frequency.

Ken

3:36

What do the Pirates do with McCutchen?

Steve Adams

3:36

Hang onto him and hope his plate discipline and batted-ball profile rebound. They can't sell low on him, especially not with the team still in contention for a Wild Card spot.

Pat

3:37

Hellickson goes to the ____.

Steve Adams

3:37

My guess: Marlins.

Dan

3:37

what would a royals return look like on a wade davis trade?

Steve Adams

3:37

Supposedly the Chapman package wouldn't have gotten it done, and they're tossing names like Giolito around when looking at the Nationals.

In other words: He's probably not getting traded.

Guest

3:37

Who got the better end of the M's-Cub's trade involving Mike Montgomery?

Steve Adams

3:39

Montgomery has five years of club control remaining and has already performed in the Majors, so if you make me pick a "winner," I'd prefer the Cubs' end of it right now. But, I don't really subscribe to the notion that there's such a thing as a "winner" and "loser" in every trade, and even in cases where one team does come away much better, we often don't know for sure until 4-5 years down the line. I thought both sides did well to fill a need with the deal by trading away a superfluous player.

3:39

Miller and Gardner for Ross, Turner, Fedde, and Glover. You think the Nationals would become desperate enough to pull the trigger on a deal like that?

Steve Adams

3:40

I don't, though I do think the Yankees would take the plunge on that offer.

Jacob

3:40

Realistically, what could be the return for Bruce? Top 100 prospect?

Steve Adams

3:42

If a team's scouts don't agree with his defensive metrics, yeah, that's reasonable. The Internet tends to make a huge deal about UZR and DRS, and understandably so since they're the primary sources of data we have on guys we don't get to watch on a daily basis, but there are plenty of instances of scouts disagreeing with metrics that suggest a guy is a poor defender.

3:43

Nick Markakis comes to mind for me -- I remember thinking he was looking at a two-year deal in free agency, but after talking to a few scouts who suggested that his glovework was fine, I came around on the idea of him getting four years. I took a lot of flak for predicting that in his FA profile and didn't feel great about it, but the Braves ultimately paid him even more than I'd forecast. Metrics are nice, but they're not the be-all end-all. And Bruce is hitting really well.

Steph

3:44

Clayton Blackburn for Fernando Abad?

Steve Adams

3:45

If the Twins are convinced that this season's 5.00+ ERA is a product of PCL shenanigans and some poor luck, then yeah they'd probably be happy to take that for a guy who signed a MInor League deal.

Torin

3:46

How big a haul would Zach Britton bring? The Orioles have Brach and O'Day that could potentially close in his place.

Steve Adams

3:47

Return for him would have to be comparable to the suggested returns being tossed around for Andrew Miller. He might have a touch less value since he's going to cost more than $18MM over the next two years thanks to arbitration, but Britton is on the short list of best lefty relievers (or just best relievers, period) in all of baseball.

Ethan

3:48

Who are the under-the-radar guys that the Pirates get at the deadline this year?

Steve Adams

3:50

Would be interesting to see them pick up a former top prospect that has had some struggles establishing himself despite ground-ball tendencies, since they do so well with ground-ball pitchers. Kyle Gibson of the Twins and Jimmy Nelson of the Brewers come to mind, though maybe Brewers don't want to go in the division. Volquez reunion makes some sense.

D Mack

3:50

Do you see the braves going after Ian Desmond, Neil Walker, and Wilson Ramos in the offseason?

Steve Adams

3:51

Desmond and Ramos strike me as likelier than Walker. They need a catcher, so Ramos for sure. Desmond if he's willing to sign as an outfielder. They don't need to add a second baseman on a multi-year deal with Peterson around to hold down the fort and Swanson/Albies looming.

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