JotCast | MLBTR Live Chat with Steve Adams -- 9/13/16

MLBTR Live Chat with Steve Adams -- 9/13/16

Steve Adams

3:16

Apologies on the slightly late start -- I felt like I should acknowledge the Twins/JJ Picollo connection before diving into this.

3:17

You can direct your disgust with Tim's $45MM prediction for Rich Hill here, though note that I'm not necessarily as bullish on Hill as he is!

Gunnerson

3:17

whats going on

Steve Adams

3:17

JUST CHILLIN' MAN.

3:17

Hey Steve.. Any idea who will take over at AAA for the Mets after Backman leaving?

Steve Adams

3:17

I generally consider it a fool's errand to even forecast MLB managerial openings. I'd just be lying if I said I had any damn clue who was taking over at Vegas for the Mets.

Klenty baby

3:18

Any big bats the Phillies sign this offseason?

Steve Adams

3:20

I think they'll pursue them, and they're in that sort of position where they can knowingly overpay by going the extra year on someone to get a deal done. I don't think they're necessarily going to sign Yoenis Cespedes, but I do think they'll be looking at a number of top-ranked names given their payroll structure and the probably faster-than-accelerated timeline they have thanks to what they've seen from Nola, Velasquez and especially Eickhoff (whose performance to this date seems to have been completely unexpected by a lot of scouts)

3:21

Specifying who, specifically, at this point is a lot of guesswork. But I like them to look at corner outfield names and maybe a left-handed-hitting first baseman that's better than Howard as a platoon-mate for Joseph, who has been underwhelming against lefties.

Underwhelming against righties.

Me speak goodly.

Jason

3:21

Is Puig back in the dodgers long-term plans? Or is it anybody's guess at this point.

Steve Adams

3:22

I still think he gets traded in the offseason, but I doubt Friedman & Co. are complaining that he's performing well and piquing the interest of outfield-needy clubs

Benny Rodriguez

3:22

Does Rich Hill re-sign with the Dodgers? 2yr 30mil sound about right?

Steve Adams

3:24

Dodgers would be my guess to re-sign him right now only because they can best afford the risk of him flaming out in epic fashion. The 2/30 mark seems reasonable to me, but the very fact that it seems reasonable means it'll probably be higher. I'm not Tim's level of bullish on him -- he was talking Kazmir money to me earlier today and just published a post on the reasoning behind his expectations for $45MM+ -- but generally speaking, if you're comfortable offering a certain amount of money to a free agent, it's probably low.

A-Rod

3:24

You think I get one more go around with a team like the Marlins?

Steve Adams

3:24

My bet is on him playing in 2017 -- probably not well, but I'd have thought the same about his chances of playing well in 2015, and he raked.

soxhata

3:25

When are the Yankees International spending limits expire? Can they be in on Gurriel?

Steve Adams

3:26

They're out for two signing periods. But, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (Yulieski's younger brother) turns 23 next month. As soon as his birthday hits, he'll no longer be subject to international spending budgets, so the Yankees can make a play for him as long as he waits another month to sign (and considering the difference in what he'll be able to earn -- why wouldn't he?)

Jindo

3:26

If Encarnacion leaves the Jays, is Smoak the fill-in?

Steve Adams

3:27

It's still so bizarre to me that they extended him. I think he's a safety net of sorts but they'll still look for an upgrade when (not if) Edwin leaves and fall back on Smoak if they have to.

Danny

3:27

Care to weigh in on whether the White Sox should be buyers or sellers in the offseason?

Steve Adams

3:29

If I had Sale, Quintana, Rodon, Eaton, Abreu and Anderson at the rates the Sox do, I wouldn't be selling. Plain and simple. Sox fans want a rebuild so badly, but they have so many great pieces in place to try to take another shot, and if it bombs again, Sale and Quintana will STILL have huge value next summer and next offseason.

Jeff

3:29

How big of a mess are the Twins? Plenty of talent, but hard to see a direction.

Steve Adams

3:31

Pitching staff's not in great shape and the player dev staff needs a big-time overhaul, but Buxton's been great in September, Kepler looks pretty solid, Rosario has hit since being sent to Triple-A, Jorge Polanco's bat looks good, and I remain a believer that Byung Ho Park can be a well above-average bat. They need some pitching and a massive bullpen restructuring, but the farm is good, the payroll isn't in horrific shape... they could turn around quickly.

Also: Brian Dozier's apparently pretty good.

tim

3:32

lets try this again...service clock, much ado bout nothing, or legit way of operating? was it really necessary to hold back correa or bryant given what we now know?

Steve Adams

3:33

Insinuating that Correa and Bryant were manipulated in the same manner is hugely inaccurate. Correa hadn't even played above Class-A when the 2015 season began. Bryant had utterly obliterated Triple-A pitching in 70 games in 2014.

3:34

But the service time manipulation happens every year. It's not new. The Rays did it with Evan Longoria and there are many cases pre-dating that. I'm not sure why it's such a big issue now aside from the fact that social media and the general coverage of roster intricacies has expanded. It's not perfect, but whatever system is created to replace it will just have some other loophole that's eventually exploited.

Ryan

3:35

Is Ryan Schimpf for real?

Steve Adams

3:37

He has the strangest batted ball profile I can remember seeing (that's not hyperbole)... I don't think he can sustain hitting even .225 at this rate -- 64% fly-balls, 31% Ks -- but the power is absolutely real. Plate discipline, too. I remain skeptical, though, unless he can turn some of those flies into line-drives.

Pierre75275

3:37

What does Dozier have to do to get MVP votes? Play on a different team?

Steve Adams

3:38

I'm sure he'll be on some ballots, but down a ways. 40 homers is 40 homers. He's done plenty to get recognized as an MVP "candidate" (i.e. someone who gets a few stray votes here and there) without that nice round number, but it'll ensure that he gets some attention.

Big A

3:39

What is your take on Dansby Swanson so far? Above average SS?

Steve Adams

3:40

Absolutely. It's 80-something plate appearances, but he's looked good in the field when I've watched the Braves, made some nice throws, and he's hitting well. Good to see he hasn't started out with an enormous strikeout rate or anything.

Sean

3:40

Do you think angels will do anything in off season.

Steve Adams

3:40

I mean, they better.

(Real answer forthcoming, ha)

3:43

They need to add as much pitching depth as they can. I don't think they're going to move Trout, despite the fact that's a fun scenario to dream on, but they should be open to dealing someone like Calhoun, even if it'd be painful. Replacing a corner outfielder will be easier than signing pitching, and Calhoun should fetch someone who can step directly into their rotation.

Even if it's not a Calhoun trade, I think they'll be exploring any and all avenues to add pitching, and it wouldn't hurt to get an actual second baseman in the mix, either.

David

3:43

Speaking of Evan Longoria, why hasn't Corey Seager gotten a contract yet similar to the one Longoria got after a week in the bigs?

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