JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 7/5/22

Ben Clemens

2:00

Hey everyone, welcome to a time-displaced baseball chat. Fourth of July took up my regular slot, so we'll use today instead

2:01

I'm hard at work on our trade value series at the moment (read: somewhat hard at work), but popping my head up for air and to talk ALL BASEBALL a la Carson Cistulli introduction

Benny Baseball

2:01

What am I looking at in free agency this off-season?

Ben Clemens

2:01

Benintendi is an interesting case; you can easily talk yourself into him being an above average position player, but not really past that

2:02

The strange thing is, that could be anywhere between Avi Garcia money (4/53) and Eddie Rosario money (2/18)

2:04

I wouldn't bat an eye at either. I think he'll end up on a team with horrible depth, because that's where he's the best upgrade

Angels, White Sox, that kinda thing

Zach

2:04

Julio Rodríguez is a top ______ player in MLB right now

Ben Clemens

2:04

I dunno, I'm gonna be conservative and say 25, but this question siv ery much on my mind

Some Guy

2:04

Of Leiter, Cavali, and Espino, which pitcher would you rather have as your team's pitching prospect?

Ben Clemens

2:04

I'm a big fan of Leiter. I haven't done a deep dive on any of them, and Eric's writeup of Cavalli today looks veyr good, but Leiter just seems amazing to me every time I see him pitch or look at his measurables

Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes

2:04

Have you commented on The Crew before? Cooperative trick taking with limited communication? I've played the original (The Quest for Planet Nine) before and enjoyed it, but the sequel/reimplementation (Mission Deep Sea) has more varied missions that completely replace it for me. And they're cheap!

Ben Clemens

2:05

I've only played Planet Nine and I thought it was really cool. So presumably I'd like the sequel

Limited communication trick taking games are great, though. Hanabi is maybe my favorite of these but there are a bunch of similarly-styled ones

Malcolm Nunez

2:05

Does Malcolm Nunez bring Martin Perez to St. Louis?

Ben Clemens

2:06

I think he would, but I wouldn't make that trade if I were the Cardinals. I'm a huge Nunez fan and think that he's closer to a breakout than most people seem to

I'd give him a slightly higher hit tool than we have, basically

Malcolm Nunez

2:06

Do Alec Burleson and Michael McGreevey bring Montas to St. Louis?

Ben Clemens

2:07

That seems more reasonable, with maybe an extra prospect thrown in, but that's before Montas left his last start with velo down

I think there's a decent chance he's not getting traded

Blake Seams

2:07

What do the Astros do at centerfield? It was a timeshare with Jose Siri (63 wRC+) and Chas McCormick (113 wRC+). But now Meyers has returned from injury (105 wRC+ in 9 games back). Also Meyers and McCormick play good defense, while Siri plays great defense. Does one or more of these guys get traded away as a package for an upgrade at CF?

Ben Clemens

2:08

I don't think that's how it works, really. "Here, take our two platoon CF's and give us back a better CF" is probably not a pitch that anyone is gonna fall for

2:09

I assume they'll be in on the Bryan Reynolds derby, b/c why not, and Cedric Mullins can be had for the right return, but I'm guessing the Astros will end up standing pat and using a Myers/McCormick platoon most of the way

RTJ

2:09

What do the Dodgers do with Max Muncy? A healthy amount of walks, but can they really keep trotting him out there with a .170 BA?

Ben Clemens

2:10

They can!

2:12

I think he's actually starting to get back towards normal, even. Looks bettr at the plate in recent weeks. I still think he's hurt, so I'd be considering giving him an IL stint if the lead widens out in the division

Soggy_Fan

2:12

I have a clarification question on Julio Rodriguez' fWAR this year. If I'm remember correctly, FanGraphs switched their defensive WAR calculation to be based on OAA this year. Julio is listed as having 5 OAA (93rd percentile per Statcast), and yet grades out as a roughly replacement level defender (-0.8 fielding runs, probably weighed down by -1.8 arm runs). It seems like for a player that is grading out so highly in percentile for OAA and playing CF, that he would have accumulated more than 0.4 defensive runs above average. Am I missing something here?

Ben Clemens

2:13

I'll have to look into the specifics here but we have him as a slightly above average defender (in terms of defensive value). The arm doesn't help for sure , and the CF adjustment isn't as high as you'd think, but I agree that I'm surprised he's not slightly higher there

We are using OAA (and really RAA) though

Thomas

2:13

I'm the EW listener who sent that question about single-game home run records. Honoured to have inspired a Clemens article! And I found your conclusion satisfying - well done

Ben Clemens

2:13

Great question!

Hector

2:13

On Sunday, Alex Cora sat Xander Bogaerts and JD Martinez for rest. Have you looked into if it is more beneficial for a team to rest multiple stars for a single game vs spreading the rest over multiple games?

Ben Clemens

2:14

Yeah, I haven't written an article about it ever but I don't think it matters much, basically

Bookbook

2:14

I know the early reporting was that Julio couldn’t stick at CF long term, especially on this site. Have the facts on the ground (~90th percentile speed scores, solid defensive performance) changed that thinking at all?

Ben Clemens

2:14

Definitely a question I'll be asking people in our trade value series

2:15

I'm not an expert on him but I'm certainly more willing to blieve his defense now

Trev

2:15

How much baseball do you watch in a week. 10 hours? 20?

Ben Clemens

2:15

Closer to 20 than 10, but it varies a lot from week to week

Rick

2:15

Hi Ben, Strider and Javier have both been breaking out this season. Both of them feature high spin fastballs they like to throw high in the zone and both are on the shorter side for pitchers (around 6 feet). Does their height have anything to do with the "rising" aspect of their fastballs?

Ben Clemens

2:16

Short answer: yes

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