JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 7/5/22

Prev Page View Full Chat Next Page

Ben Clemens

2:16

Longer answer: yes, but neither of them are particularly drop-and-drive-y. They have roughly average release points -- a few inches below league average vertical axis wise

2:17

The spin matters far more for both of them, though their arm slot and height help them create plane

2:17

What happened to Tarik Skubal? Looked like one of the few bright spots for the Tigers to start the year, but has completely fallen off a cliff the past 5-6 starts. Growing pains, or something else?

Ben Clemens

2:18

I'm leaning growing pains, but I wasn't particularly bought in on Skubal when he was hot so that informs my view

I'm gonna run out and let my wife in (she forgot her keys), and then I'll expand on this when I get back

2:22

Okay!

2:23

Allow me to just say this: Skubal mostly looks like he's gonna be fine to me. Still missing bats, still needs to work on consistency

Guest

2:23

should Odorizzi be on the trading block? Seems to be the odd man out of the Hou rotation, and they have Hunter Brown waiting in the wings to contribute in the arm barn if needed

Ben Clemens

2:23

I don't think so; it's just playing with fire. I don't think the return would justify the contingent loss the Astros would suffer if someone in the rotation got hurt

Sad Person

2:23

Can you give me any positives of remaining a Reds fan?

Ben Clemens

2:23

Watching Joey Votto is really fun

Shohei <3

2:24

Is there any way to truly assign era-adjusted stats for pre-integration players? The fact that they played against a significantly reduced talent pool means that stats like ERA+, OPS+, etc. can't properly account for the fact that average players in that era would in all likelihood be closer to replacement level if leagues were integrated at the time. I think this also bleeds into the way people treat accomplishments that aren't reasonable in an integrated game (.400 avg, 150+ RBI seasons).

Ben Clemens

2:24

Basically no

It was just a different game

2:24

Is it worth Toronto calling up Gabriel Moreno only to sit and play irregularly? Helpful in terms of getting his feet wet with catching and working with the ML pitchers, or stunting his offensive development (guess he's pretty developed but hasn't show the power this year)?

Ben Clemens

2:25

if I were them, I think I'd send him back down, but it's not like he's riding the bench

Kirk moonlighting at DH helps

2:26

The more I think about it, the more I like leaving him up. Yeah, his power hasn't really showed out in the majors, but it wasn't at Triple-A either this year and the combination of needing every last win and Jansen being on the IL means he's still adding value

Cito's Mustache

2:26

Is there any correlation between pulled flyball % and HR/FB rate? Since, on average, pulled fly balls do travel farther than oppo FB. Specifically thinking about Gausman, who is suppressing the long ball (0.2 HR/9) and allows just 17.9% of FB to the pull side.

Ben Clemens

2:26

There is, but pitchers don't exert a ton of control over whether batters pull their pitches long-term

Jeremy Pena

2:27

Am I a top 3 SS in the AL right now? (After Bogaerts and Anderson)

Ben Clemens

2:27

I'd rather have Correa, rather have Seager if we're talking about just this year, and JP Crawford as well (again for this year)

2:28

I like Pena quite a lot! I think I was on the record saying the Astros should skip shortstop replacements and plug him in. But I still think it's wise to bet on pedigree over his start for now

2:29

Was playing a board game (Hive Mind) with friends where we were all supposed to list unpredictable things. One person listed sports, which I had considered but decided was at least somewhat predictable due to having spent so much time reading about projections and statistical performance predictors. I thought about it again and realized that maybe sports really are inherently unpredictable— randomness seems to be key much of the time. Would you characterize sports as fundamentally unpredictable?

Ben Clemens

2:29

Yeah, I'd call sports fundamentally unpredictable. That's what's fun about it

Everything has statistical performance predictors and whatnot, but the reason we all like sports so much is b/c we don't know the answer

2:30

I guess there are some semantic issues around what 'predictable' means, but I'd consider sports unpredictable

Moonlight Graham

2:30

Willson Contreras will be a __ on August 3rd?

Ben Clemens

2:30

catcher

Oh, teams, right. I'll say Giant b/c I think that'd be fun

Dan McGraw

2:30

Has Judge playing center changed the valuation on him to some teams? or is he just faking it out there

Ben Clemens

2:31

I think it's bumped him up slightly. I wouldn't consider him a long-term answer out there, and I don't think most teams do either. But if you want someone to play an average or slightly above average CF next year, Judge can do that

RTJ

2:31

Oneil Cruz is insanely fun to watch - I'm so glad he's finally up. I found an old-ish FG article about short stop height, but 6'7" is a lot, right?

Ben Clemens

2:32

Yeah, it's comically taller than anyone else who people have seen stick at shortstop

That's why evaluators were so divided on him coming up: if he can play shortstop, he's amazing, but well, he's 6'7"!

2:33

If he can stick there for a few years - and to me it looks like he can - he's one of the best prospects in the game. And he kinda needs to, b/c he hasn't looked as good defensively at third and Ke'Bryan Hayes has it locked down anyway. He's not exactly a second baseman and has looked dicey in the outfield

So, shortstop is his natural position and the best fit for the team, I think he'll play there until he can't

Fred

2:33

Please explain how Kyle Tucker is still behind Yuli Gurriel almost every day. Even with Brantley out, they haven't move him up in the lineup. I understand the L-R-L-R... lineup configuration, but he is their 2nd best hitter, and still hitting 5-6 in the order. Should I expect this to change in the near future?

Ben Clemens

2:34

You should not, b/c the best predictor of the future is the present, particularly for something like this where the manager has full control

Dusty Baker likes to stagger his lineup, so he does. I personally wouldn't, b/c I'd want more at-bats for Tucker, but I'm not a Hall of Fame (deserving) manager

Connecting…

Message History

On Off

Your current subscriptions

None

E-mail Address	Chat Owner	Status	Remove

Enter your email address to be notified when Ben Clemens hosts a chat