JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 7/5/22

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 7/5/22

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Ben Clemens

3:06

I'll be very curious to see Happ's market develop. He's improved his contact quite a bit this year

I think it's at the cost of some barrels, he's running his lowest barrel rate and a below-average for him hard-hit rate, but for someone with plus power, I think that's a reasonable tradeoff

3:07

I don't know if he will keep it up, which I imagine would make teams hesitant to surrender a big return for him -- you could totally imagine him turning back into a K's and HR's guy with league average offense

But his new slightly less powerful but more under control form makes a lot of sense for someone who has that much natural pop

Tim

3:07

(Sorry for follow-up, but one note to say the Musgrove/Gio comparison is obviously not accounting for a pretty drastic difference in pitch type usage, which may play a big role here)

I spent the weekend tooling around some Fangraphs numbers, as cool people tend to do over long weekends, and discovered that since 2020 Musgrove and Giolito have REALLY similar numbers across the board, with the glaring exception of Gio allowing nearly one additional run per nine (3.83 ERA to Joe's 2.99). Giolito has obviously been a mess lately, but what's your long-term outlook? Think he can get to a sub-3 ERA as well?

Ben Clemens

3:07

Whoops, those are out of order

3:08

My long-term outlook is for Giolito to return to his front-of-rotation form. I think that he's more susceptible to cold stretches because of his pitch mix, when his high changeup isn't fooling anyone he can look really bad

3:09

And I think that has a lot to do with how it sometimes seems as though he'll never right the ship

An additional secondary pitch popping would go a long way for Giolito, but his fastball and changeup are so good that I think he's going to figure it out even if that doesn't happen

3:10

But yeah, Musgrove is a good example of how a pitcher with a solid fastball can hit the next level by having his breaking balls improve; at this point (and maybe always, but especially now) I think of him as more a slider/curve guy than anything else

Some Guy

3:10

Do you think anyone will ever manage to surpass Edwin Jackson's record for the most teams played for in a career?

Ben Clemens

3:10

I don't

It's just soooooo many

John

3:11

Hey Ben, I think something is amiss with the playoff odds, specifically the wild card tab. The teams occupying the top spots in each league (Blue Jays and Padres) aren't showing up. https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds/fg/wc

Ben Clemens

3:11

Oh that's strange. I'll mention it

Pod

3:12

Been listening to some old FG audio… do you know Dayn Perry personally, and is he still awful?

Ben Clemens

3:12

I've never met Dayn, but I loved those old FG Audios

Guest

3:12

obvious caveat of soft STL media treatment here, but do you think it's strange that Yadi just chillin in Puerto Rico right now isn't getting more attention?

Ben Clemens

3:12

Yes

My uncle texted me about it yday to ask basically the same thing. It's quite interesting and I'm shocked no one is talking about it

John

3:12

Hi Ben, why do analysts (especially fantasy analysts) still use HR/9 long after K/9 and BB/9 have been replaced by the superior K% and BB%?

Ben Clemens

3:14

I think that HR/9 is more of an ensemble stat. It measures how many batters you have to face to get through nine innings in addition to the rate at which you give up homers. I don't find it particularly more or less useful than HR%

Caveat: I haven't actually tested it to see which is stickier, so maybe I will when I'm back from vacation

Guest

3:14

The Blue Jays don't hold the top AL wild card. The Red Sox do.

Ben Clemens

3:14

Jays have the top odds, not the top wild card, and I'm assuming that's what our system uses

Dan

3:14

Better career - Kirilloff or Pasquantino?

Ben Clemens

3:14

I'm gonna take the hype and go with Vinnie P

Jake

3:15

If the Nats decide to deal Juan Soto before this year's deadline, what's the best package out there? How many teams even have the prospects to make a realistic run at it?

Ben Clemens

3:15

I truly have no clue what he'd fetch. It would make the Chris Sale deal look small in comparison.

3:16

Say, three top 50 prospects with a headliner in the top 5?

plus some more stuff

Very few teams have that kind of juice; the Rays, O's, Yankees, and Dodgers come to mind for me

Guest

3:16

What kind of return could the Nats get for Bell? Is a fringe top 100 prospect unrealistic?

Ben Clemens

3:16

Depends on who needs him but I'd say that's the top end of what they could get back

3:17

For me, fringe top 100 extends to about 160 or so

Guest

3:17

Does Shohei deserve the MVP if he hits 30 homers with a sub 3.00 ERA? Or has voters' fatigue already set in?

Ben Clemens

3:17

I tihnk he'd deserve it, but don't think he'd win it. The fatigue is real

Speaking of fatigue: I have a bunch of projects to get through before I leave for vacation on Thursday, so I am going to turn my attention to those. Have a great week, everyone, and I'll talk to you via chat in a few weeks (articles sooner)

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