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Blue Jays Outlook '23
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Mark P
8:01
Hi everyone, let's talk some Blue Jays.  We've already got a good heap of questions in the queue, so let's crack on
Back 2 Back
8:01
Will the Bluejays offer Chapman a QO for draft pick compensation? He will most likely want a long term contract
Aurora
8:01
Pretty much a done deal that Chapman turns down QO?  I guess with weak FA class he still stands to get paid??
Mark P
8:02
Chapman will definitely be offered the QO, and it's very likely he'll reject it.  Even with the shaky numbers, Chapman is going to land a nice multi-year contract.
Tom the Raptor
8:03
What is Guellermo Martinez's background as a hitting coach  prior to coming to the Jays ??
Mark P
8:04
He was a longtime coach in the organization and he's been the hitting coach since prior to the 2019 season.  So in fairness to Martinez, if you give him the blame for 2023's results, you also have to acknowledge some credit for the Jays' very good to great offensive numbers in past seasons.
8:05
That said, there might be something to the fact that Martinez has been coaching a lot of these same homegrown hitters for years.  Maybe a new voice is needed, or some new adjustments need to be made since it seems like the league has largely figured out how to pitch to Toronto's hitters
AHume92
8:05
Do you think the Jays might change hitting coaches?  The Jays seemed to get away from their successful approach of pulling fly balls this year (2nd in MLB in oppo rate).  They need some more power bats, but they need to pull more balls in the air.

Given his struggles down the stretch, do you think Chapman might take a QO?  I imagine with the weak free agent market, a sizeable amount of help might come from trades.  If the Jays have confidence in Manoah and Tiedemann, do you think they could sell high on Kikuchi to land a bat?
Mark P
8:07
This one kind combines our first two topics, but as for the third point, trading Kikuchi can't be ruled out.  The Jays trust Kikuchi only to a certain extent, as he almost never got a third turn through a lineup.  If another team makes an interesting offer, the Jays could be tempted.

That said, Tiedemann has barely pitched at Triple-A and Manoah is a total question mark.  Toronto doesn't have a true fifth starter in the rotation right now, so if they moved Kikuchi, that's suddenly two holes in the starting staff that need to be filled
Schadenfreude
8:07
Oh, hi Mark. As a Jays fan, do you find it frustrating to see former Jays Gurriel and Moreno enjoying playoff success? Are you rooting for them? Or somewhere in the middle even?
Mark P
8:08
I've got no issue with Gurriel or Moreno, and I wish them well going forward.  If anything, I've been enjoying the Diamondbacks' underdog run thus far.
All Star Game
8:08
After stadium renos are complete next year, the jays will push for an ASG?
Mark P
8:09
This is definitely on the team's radar.  I can see the Jays making a play for the 2027 game, to commemorate the team's 50th anniversary.
Query
8:10
Should the Jays look at trading Guerrero now with 2yrs remaining or keep him and watch him walk with a QO?  Seems like his shine has worn off in Toronto.
Rob
8:10
Do they move Vladdy this off-season?
Oren
8:10
What's Vlad Jr. worth in a trade?
Mark P
8:14
Whole lot of Guerrero-related trade questions in the chat, so to sum up the topic here.  

I think the Jays would be remiss if they didn't at least consider a trade this offseason.  If Guerrero has another 118 wRC+ type of year in 2024, his "future superstar" rep will die down even further, to the point that his trade value will be pretty diminished 12 months from now.  

And let's not forget, this would be a very risky trade.  Guerrero's advanced metrics are still so good that it felt all season like he was just one tweak away from getting red-hot at the plate, so if another team's hitting coach can unlock him, suddenly the Blue Jays might've dealt away a star.
8:15
In terms of what they could get back, loads of trade options would be on the table that could help the Jays in both 2024 and in the future.  A first baseman wouldn't really be needed in return, since the 1B spot is relatively easy to fill in free agency or in a lesser-tier trade.
Ryan
8:16
I read mlbtr's offseason outlook and didn't see anything about possibly signing Bellinger. Wouldn't he be a possible fit?
Mark P
8:17
Bellinger was pursued by the Jays winter, basically with the same idea as their pursuit of Belt or Kiermaier --- a one-year bounce-back contract.  

Obviously it'll take a lot more to sign him now, so who know if Toronto might still have interest at a much higher price tag and the cost of QO-related draft picks.  Keep in mind that since the Jays topped the luxury tax barrier last year, they'll now face steeper penalties for signing a QO free agent
8:18
Also, just as a mechanical detail for writing an OO piece....since the Jays are usually an "in on everyone" kind of team, I don't want to get too into the weeds about listing every potential target.  I'm sure they'll talk to Bellinger, but on some level, they'll probably at least check in on every prominent free agent, for due diligence if nothing else
Farm Replacements
8:19
How hard do the Jays look at Barger as Chapman’s replacement and Schneider to platoon with Biggio?  Both are ready.
Mark P
8:20
It's a big leap of faith to entrust two starting positions to a rookie and to a platoon of a rookie and a player who has been pretty subpar over the last three seasons.
AGN
8:20
With all the infield prospects coming, it feels like the biggest hole for the Jays will be in left field. Can Jays be realistic trade players for someone who really raises their ceiling, like Juan Soto?
Mark P
8:22
Left field is theoretically one of the easier spots to address, in terms of finding at least a decent part-time bat.  Now, whether or not the Jays did go big and pursued Soto is another question.

More than a few variations of a "Soto for Guerrero" type of trade have been suggested here in the queue, I should note.  Hey, the Jays and Padres have a history of blockbuster deals, eh?
Quin
8:22
With a cluttered infield with Bichette, Barger, Biggio, Schenider, etc. Will Santiago Espinal be on the team next year?
Mark P
8:23
Doubtful.  Espinal took a big step backwards, and the Jays simply need to upgrade their bench in general.  The lack of depth really showed when even just one player was hurt for any length of time.
Noot Noot
8:23
Let's just address the MVP-sized elephant in the room. The Jays have plenty of money to spend, are coming off a postseason berth when many big market teams faltered, and have received good public reviews on their team facilities and treatment of players. Do you think they're in the running for Shohei Ohtani?
Mark P
8:26
Ohtani will surely get some interest from the Jays, though I expect it might be more of the "due diligence" type of exploration I mentioned earlier.

If the rumors of Ohtani preferred a west coast team are true, then the Jays might have no shot anyway.  But, I hesitate at the idea that the Blue Jays (of all teams) will be the ones who give Ohtani the record-breaking contract he's going to require.  Obviously a lot of that $500MM+ will pay for itself in marketing, sponsorship, and increased fan interest, but it just seems like a bit of a bridge too far for Jays ownership in my view.

Though I'd be happy to be proven wrong!
Guest
8:26
Blue Jays have many prospects on cusp of majors. Why not let those players assume major league roles and see what Jays have; especially considering how poorly Blue Jay free agent veterans did this past year? Belt and Kiermaier were exceptions but won’t be back most likely for other reasons.
Mark P
8:27
Poorly?  Basically all of the new acquisitions worked out really well, except for Varsho (who's not a veteran).
I don’t know
8:27
Is “I don’t know” our new 3B for ‘24? (From American comedy duo Abbott andCostello for all you youngsters)
Mark P
8:28
Fun fact: I performed the Who's On First routine with a friend as part of a public speaking competition in grade school.  Shoutout to my pal Trevor, I still think we were robbed by the judges!
RM
8:28
Could we see Joey Votto replace Brandon Belt next year?
Mark P
8:30
There have been several reports over the years that Votto didn't really want to play in Toronto, as he preferred to keep his personal life and work life separate.  A lot of players from cities all over MLB feel this way, since it's a lot of added pressure being a hometown hero.

That said, if the Reds don't bring Votto back, maybe he's now open to a deal with the Jays as a final chapter in his career.
Replacement-Level Question
8:30
Many folks thought the Jays were a championship-calibre team on paper last offseason and ended up struggling their way through 89 wins
Mark P
8:32
This is the most unusual thing about the 2023 Jays.....objectively, they were a good team.  89 wins is a very solid season, and they exactly matched their pythagorean projection.

So with this in mind, it made it all the more confounding that the club never really seemed to get it together for any extended period of time.  The losses tended to stand out more than the wins, since the losses were so often due to a lack of hitting, or one or two glaring mistakes (i.e. baserunning errors)
Baysball
8:32
Poll, who thinks Atkins should be gone, like yesterday
Mark P
8:33
I tend to not post polls that will have a very lopsided outcome
Bret
8:34
We're you surprised that neither Atkins or Schneider were let go after the playoff.mess?
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