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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 10/25/22
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Steve Adams
10:09
Greetings all, and happy World Series week! Let's talk free agency, non-tender candidates, winter trade scenarios, postseason and more for the next hour or so
Guest
10:09
  • Does woodruff to the Red Sox make sense ?
Steve Adams
10:11
In the sense that the Red Sox need rotation upgrades? Sure. And I can buy a scenario where one of Woodruff or Burnes becomes available due to the Brewers' mounting payroll, thin farm, etc. The Sox would need to surrender an absolute haul, though, and if either Burnes or Woodruff were genuinely available, they'd face steep competition -- likely from some contenders with better systems (Dodgers, to name one obvious one)
Felps
10:11
Any truth to the Devers extension rumors? What does a possible extension look like?
Steve Adams
10:15
Yancen Pujols, a reporter in the Dominican Republic, said that the Sox sent an exec to meet with Devers. Chris Cotillo from MassLive added a ton of context within the past hour, basically saying that AGM Eddie Romero stopped in for an offseason check-in with Devers as one of many stops on an assignment down in the DR.

The Sox love Devers, they want to keep him. Last year's offer was a low-ball deal that used Matt Olson as a comp despite Devers being better a better hitter, younger and more established. I haven't sat down and kicked around Devers numbers at length, but he's projected around $17MM next season and will hit free agency just after 27th birthday. He's going to be a candidate for a 10-year deal when he reaches free agency. If the Sox aren't willing to approach or exceed $300MM in extension talks, I have a hard time seeing a deal completed -- and last spring they were apparently nowhere close to that.
Willie Hernandez
10:16
Do you see the Tigers going after one of the Premier SS and moving Baez to 2nd?
Steve Adams
10:16
I don't think they hired Scott Harris to come in and just throw another $200MMish at a free agent.
Fre5hwind
10:16
Gavin Lux to the Mariners? Since they want Aaron Judge.
Steve Adams
10:19
Everyone is going to "want" Aaron Judge. The Dodgers can obviously afford it more than most, and it's notable that Betts has expressed some willingness to play 2B if needed. That said, signing Judge in no way means that Betts HAS to move to 2B, nor does it mean Lux would be pushed out. They could play Judge and Betts in the corners, give Judge time in center field, or do a whole timeshare between the outfield spots and second base involving that whole group and Chris Taylor (obviously not with Judge at 2B, though that'd be fun to watch!)

The Dodgers never have an issue with bouncing guys around the diamond. They're not the type of team that's going to say "We signed X so now we have to trade Y." Their entire roster is built around positional flexibility.
10:20
Lux as a fit for the Mariners might make some sense, sure, but they'd need to give up a good bit of talent to acquire four years of Lux.
10:21
Tigers just announced that they've hired Rays senior director of scouting Rob Metzler as a vice president and assistant general manager
Rizzo
10:22
My infield is basically done and the rotation (may need another arm) is locked, I have lane Thomas and Robles but who should I sign? A utility guy or a corner Of
Steve Adams
10:25
I don't think Robles is a lock to return to the Nats at this point. The infield is only "done" in the sense that they'll want to take long looks at Kieboom, Abrams and Garcia at 3B/SS/2B. Joey Meneses earned a look at first base, sure, but all you need to do it look at the Cubs and Frank Schwindel to see how a 30-year-old rookie breakout is far from a sure thing (that's just one example -- albeit the most recent).

The Nats will badly need some infield depth in the event that Kieboom is injured again, Abrams struggles, Meneses regresses, etc. They should absolutely add another SP. There's no "lock" in a group that features Corbin, Josiah Gray (who needs to take a step forward), a fringey fifth guy (Erick Fedde), a pair of prospects (MacKenzie Gore, Cade Cavalli) and the game's biggest question mark (Strasburg)
10:28
The Nats aren't going to compete next year, but they're a good landing spot for any hitter or starter looking for an opportunity at playing time and a rebound. There are very few veterans they can't accommodate in this manner, and anyone they sign would become a summer trade chip if all goes well.
John
10:28
O’s likely to trade Santander for a starter?
Steve Adams
10:31
Even coming off the year he had, I'm not sure Santander nets them an immediate rotation upgrade -- at least not an established one. It's only two more years of Santander, so he's not going to fetch a controllable, proven arm -- and near-MLB-ready prospects are tough to pry away for corner-only bats, even good ones. There are exceptions (the Twins got Joe Ryan for a half season of Nelson Cruz), but I feel it's easier for the O's to just use the payroll space they have to sign some rotation help.
Go Ms
10:32
Who do you expect to be dealt among the Mariners surplus of controllable SP? The top 4 of Castillo, Ray, Logan and Kirby seem pretty locked in. Do you think Brash returns to the rotation? Marco, Flexen, Hancock and that kid from AA Dollard; lots of possibilities for that 5th spot next couple of years.
Steve Adams
10:32
Dipoto said last week Brash is a reliever for the foreseeable future.

One or both of Flexen and Marco will probably be available this winter.
Joshua
10:33
What type of package could the Guardians get in return for Zach Plesac?
Steve Adams
10:34
He's a controllable, big league caliber starter so I don't want to downplay the value too much, but Plesac at this point is a fourth/fifth starter who in the past three years has: been disciplined for violating Covid protocols in 2020, posted a long rant about said discipline on Instagram, injured his thumb while "aggressively taking off his shirt" (whatever that means) following a bad start, and now most recently broken a finger while punching the mound after giving up a home run.
10:36
I buy that Cleveland is ready to move on, but he hasn't exactly helped his own trade stock, either. I don't see him as a player who'd fetch a major haul on his own, but the Guardians have a crunched 40-man roster because last year's Rule 5 never happened, so he's someone I could see them pairing with a prospect or two and condensing that trio of 40-man spots into a more needed upgrade for the lineup, sure.
Bill Doran
10:38
Wouldn't be surprised at all to see the D-backs in the postseason next year. What say you?
Steve Adams
10:39
They need a lot to go right, particularly since the Dodgers and Padres are atop the division and they'll be competing with a Giants club I expect to spend heavily this winter.

It's not impossible, and I like the D-backs' young core, but let's see how the offseason plays out. If they were in the NL Central or AL Central, I'd be more bullish on their outlook right now
BW
10:40
Realistic Free agents for STlouis?
Steve Adams
10:41
Christian Vazquez and any number of free-agent OFs make sense (Benintendi, Kiermaier, Haniger, etc.)
John W
10:41
O/U 127.5 mil for Carlos Rodon
Steve Adams
10:41
Over, for me
Nick
10:42
Is it possible for the Rangers to sign two top free agent pitchers while also keeping Perez? I feel like the Rangers want to beef up their rotation without trading the young starters in their system.
Steve Adams
10:45
If they can re-sign Perez and add even one more notable free-agent SP, that's a good offseason. I don't think they're going to be favorites for Verlander or deGrom, since they'll both want to sign with clear contenders. Kershaw's always a possibility since he and his family live a short drive from Globe Life and it's generally believed it's Dodgers, Rangers or nothing for him.

The other options are Rodon, who I currently have down at 5/150, and NPB ace Kodai Senga, who's a huge upside play but also (obviously) unproven in MLB. I don't see Texas signing two of Kershaw/Rodon/Senga, no. One of the three, plus Perez? I can buy that.
Will
10:46
Hey Steve. What would you do if you were AJ Preller this off-season? The farm is decimated, half the bullpen is likely to leave, at least 2 starters are gone, you have no 1B,and Soto and Machado are both likely to become free agents at season’s end. Would you look at trading Manny/Soto for young, MLB talent? Wouldn’t be popular with the fan base, but it just seems like it might have to be done.
Steve Adams
10:46
Firstly, Soto is controlled through 2024. Let's start by debunking that portion of your concerns.
10:49
Secondly, I don't really agree that half the bullpen is likely to leave. Suarez will decline his player option, as he should. I lean toward Martinez forgoing his, since he has two more options and he didn't really dominate despite the solid ERA out of the 'pen. Even if he goes, that doesn't decimate the 'pen.

They'll be down Clevinger and Manaea, yes, but neither was exceptional for them in '22 anyhow -- and they'll return Darvish, Musgrove and Snell with some decent depth behind them, plus a deep class of mid-rotation SP available.
10:52
The first base thing isn't a huge issue for me, since there are always available options on the market (trade and free-agent) to add a 1B.

I don't generally have the same doom-and-gloom outlook you seem to have. Yes, there are holes to fill -- 1B, corner OF, back of the rotation SP, a reliever -- but it's not insurmountable by any means and the core remains strong for '23.
10:54
I'm afraid I'm going to have to wrap up a little early this week -- apologies! I will go for a longer chat next week. Thanks, as always, for joining -- and sorry for all the questions I can't get to in these. I'm on Twitter @Adams_Steve if you're so inclined and always happy to take more questions there.

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Have a great week, everyone!
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