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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 12/12/23
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Steve Adams
8:41
Good morning all -- looking forward to another chat. I'll be back at 1pm to get this started, but feel free to ask questions in advance!
12:56
Greetings! Plenty to talk about so I'll get going a few minutes early
Steve
12:56
Why are the Mariners letting their window pass?
Steve Adams
12:58
It's been an underwhelming offseason so far, but I'll hold out judgment until we see what they actually end up doing. As for their window "passing," they have Julio signed into next decade, Castillo signed through 2027, Gilbert controlled through 2027, Kirby/Brash controlled through 2028, Miller/Woo controlled through 2029.... I guess I just don't agree with the premise here -- frustrating offseason notwithstanding.
Big Bob
12:58
Forgetting that the Dodgers needed to clear two spots on their 40-man roster, did they get fair value for their swap with the Yankees? Is Sweeney worth more than Gonzalez and Vivas?
Steve Adams
12:59
Seemed like a fine trade for either party to me. I think Gonzalez is generally a bit underrated, and he certainly fits the Yankees' GB-heavy reliever mold. Sweeney and Vivas aren't wildly separate in terms of prospect value.
kam
12:59
Steve, do you have a degree in economics? I think you might need one for this chat!
Steve Adams
12:59
Ha, yeah I expect lots of Ohtani questions.
1:00
In fact, I'll just provide some quick thoughts up top that I'll probably have to point back to often
1:01
I don't really understand all the hand-wringing over the whole structure. I think people are mad because it has "super team" vibes, but this isn't new. Max Scherzer's $210MM deal with the Nationals, for one prominent example, is still being paid out. It was a "seven" year contract spanning 2015-21, but it's being paid out through 2028. Half of the entire guarantee was deferred, including all $35MM of Scherzer's salary in 2019, when Washington won the World Seris.
1:02
We see contracts every single year that game the CBT to varying extents. The Padres drew up a convoluted four-year deal for Michael Wacha with a bunch of $6MM player options that he was never going to exercise, just to keep themselves below tier three of the CBT
1:03
The Yankees (Justin Wilson, Darren O'Day), Mets (Taijuan Walker), Red Sox (Hirokazu Sawamura), Astros (Jake Odorizzi) and others have added player options that are very unlikely to be picked up solely as means of tamping down a contract's AAV (because a player option is considered guaranteed money under the CBT)
1:05
Any team that wanted to offer Ohtani an AAV in the $46MM range could've structured the contract like this. It's not unique to the Dodgers or anything. It just pisses people off because they also have Betts and Freeman. That's fine, and I guess I get that. I actually disagree with Tim Dierkes' characterization that it's not a CBT duck. It is, but who cares? Teams duck the CBT every year, and the league chooses not to enforce it. The Dodgers didn't do anything nefarious here, and the only thing they did that the Pirates, A's, Royals, etc. couldn't do was offer such a massive net present value (~$460MM) in the first place.
Ok, stepping down from the soap box. I'm sure I'll get more questions, but there's my rough thoughts on the whole "controversy" (which isn't a controversy in my eyes, obviously)
Joe Mufferaw
1:06
Do you think MLB should implement some sort of deadline for 40 man roster signings? If not, what is something MLB can do to spice up the off-season like NFL, NBA and NHL do. It seems like a missed opportunity to have it this slow and boring.
Steve Adams
1:07
Asked about this a lot. I don't think it's a problem. I prefer the slow pace, actually. It makes baseball a year-round sport for those who follow free agency and trades. There's almost always something to look out for. I think it's better than free agency basically being done after like two days.
Hartman
1:08
Are the Redsox really punting again?
Steve Adams
1:08
If they were punting they wouldn't be meeting with Yamamoto, pursuing Montgomery, etc. They haven't made a big move yet, but that's true of most teams throughout the league
Cal
1:08
Could the Cardinals be a Sleeper pick for Yamamoto or is that just wishful thinking?
Steve Adams
1:09
After already signing Gray/Lynn/Gibson, I think the far likelier source of another rotation acquisition would be the trade market.
Reese Olson
1:09
Will I have a starting spot after free agent signings? Will I get a spot ahead of Manning?
Steve Adams
1:10
He's better than Manning and should get an opportunity in the rotation before him. I imagine there'll be a spring competition between them for a starting job, though (assuming the Tigers do add another SP at some point)
1:11
It's kind of a moot point anyway. They both have minor league options remaining. Injuries elsewhere in the rotation are inevitable. Even if Olson or Manning opens the year in AAA, neither will stay there all season. I imagine both will make 15+ starts in 2024.
Or at least have the opportunity to do so. If they get hurt or pitch their way out of it, that's another story. Broader point was that the opportunity to make that many starts should be there
Guest
1:12
Did the Reds sign Jeimer to trade other players for Pitching?  Who do you think are their targets and trade chips?
Steve Adams
1:14
I think it makes it easier to do so but doesn't make it a guarantee. It's good depth to have. A lot of folks (myself included) love to tout the Reds' exciting infield depth -- and with good reason. But Elly De La Cruz was brutal after a hot month to start his season. Noelvi Marte has 123 MLB plate appearances. Christian Encarnacion-Strand has 240. Most of that young group hasn't cemented a place in the big leagues yet. Even Matt McLain, awesome as he was in 400ish PAs, could regress some. He'd hardly be the first notable young player to struggle in his sophomore season
So, sure, Candelario proactively replenishes some depth if the Reds find an SP offer for Marte, CES, Steer, etc. that they can't pass up. But I don't think it makes a trade an absolute lock.
Bob Saccamano
1:14
Are the Orioles in on Cease?
Steve Adams
1:15
Yup
Along with probably 10 other teams though
NotADodgerFan
1:16
Why is MLB antagonizing me by posting so much Shohei Ohtani content (the only non-Ohtani content is some fever dream about Tom Brady, by the way)? They do realize that as a Dodger, Ohtani will be resented by more of the baseball fan base than he did as an Angel.
Steve Adams
1:16
Because far more people care about/love Ohtani than the opposite.
Bishop
1:17
Will the Marlins be trading Jazz Chisholm this off-season or during next seasons trade deadline?
Steve Adams
1:17
I don't see that as a likely scenario, no
Thank you!
1:17
Just wanted to say thank you for providing a rational, detailed explanation of your thoughts around the Ohtani deal! It's refreshing compared to the "hot takes" so many others are providing.
Steve Adams
1:18
Thanks. Hot takes are kind of what the internet, talk radio, a lot of sports talk shows, etc. are all about though. It's why I consume virtually none of those things, haha. I've seen the Chris Russo clip about how it's "BAD FOR BASEBALL" making the rounds and I can't even bring myself to click it, since I know it'll just be huffing and puffing and yelling at clouds.
Guest
1:18
what do we think od bellinger to mariners
Steve Adams
1:19
Reasonable but unlikely fit. I say this most weeks now because I still can't believe it's true, but Dipoto has never signed a free agent hitter to a multi-year deal since taking over the Mariners' front office
dan
1:20
Follow-up to the Reds Jeimer questions. Would a Manoah - India deal be something the Reds/Jays could do? Or have i got the values off here.
Steve Adams
1:20
Even coming off the disaster season, Manoah's ceiling is just so much higher, and he has an extra year of team control.
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