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Chat With MLBTR's Steve Adams: 2/5/19
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Steve Adams
3:38
Greetings world. I'll start fielding questions in about one minute but feel free to start asking prior to that!
Justin
3:40
Will the Reds get Realmuto?
Steve Adams
3:41
It seems like if the Marlins would take a package headlined by something like India+Barnhart (which I'd do if I were CIN) and another lower-tier prospect, a deal would be done. That hasn't happened, and it seems like to some extent their interest was overstated -- probably by the Marlins leaking out info
3:42
Frankly, the whole scenario just seems like Miami has continually tried to make interest in Realmuto seem greater than it is. It's gotten beyond tiresome. I hope there's some legitimacy to the Phillies jumping back into the mix, and maybe we can end this charade already.
Drew Storen
3:43
Where will I sign? San Diego or another developing team or a contender? Philly?
Steve Adams
3:43
He's gonna take a minor league deal, I'd assume -- probably one with a team who has a clear path to high-leverage innings for which he can compete. Contender vs. non-contender rarely matters for guys like Storen who are just trying to showcase the fact that they can still be considered an MLB-caliber arm.
Daddy in Cabot
3:43
Vlad Guerrero JR for ROY? U see him staying at 3b long term?
Steve Adams
3:44
ROY seems quite likely. There is nothing anywhere to suggest he has any long-term future at 3B -- at least not as a passable defender there anyway.
Jerry
3:44
Brewers sign Machado for 2 years 60 mil?
Steve Adams
3:47
If Machado's signing a short-term deal, there's no reason for him to take $30MM over that term. He'd set a new AAV record and quite likely crush it. People assume that because Mike Trout is making $33MM per year that that's what a $33MM per year player is.

The reality is that Trout is probably underpaid by another $30-40MM relative to what he produces for the Angels in a given season. If Machado is taking a short-term deal, I'd expect him to clear $40MM annually. If it's a one-year deal, I wouldn't even find $50MM+ crazy for a team with payroll flexibility.

I still think he'll land a longer-term deal, but probably nowhere near the dollars or years most expected early in the offseason.
Adam Steves
3:47
What's been more boring:
Steve Adams
3:48
The answer is this offseason. Regardless of what the two choices were.

Unless the alternative was the 2019 Super Bowl, in which case.... woof.
Jays Fan
3:48
Why dont the says sign Edwin Jackson or Ervin as guys who can log innings and be flipped at the deadline? Nothing really to lose right?
Steve Adams
3:49
I don't think E-Jax is going to be the kind of guy who's going to command much at the deadline; even his more recent success had some smoke and mirrors to it. Ervin's a total wild card, but if he's healthy and affordable (he'll definitely be the latter, in this market), then he could bring something back.

And there's nothing to suggest Toronto won't do just that. Ross Atkins sounded over the weekend very much like someone who plans on adding another arm or two:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/02/blue-jays-rumors-free-agency-ro...
JA
3:50
Kimbrel, Keuchel. If you could have either or for the Twins on a three year deal.  Who improves them the best?
Steve Adams
3:50
I'll take the starter, but the Twins should be looking at signing both guys given their limited markets and the state of the rest of their division.
Wahoo
3:50
Hello. Will my tribe get an outfielder and who? Also do you think the Dodgers & Brewers rumors for Kluber dead?  Thank you for your time.
Steve Adams
3:51
I think they'll sign a veteran like CarGo or Jones on the cheap before all is said and done. My expectation is Kluber is pitching for the Indians on Opening Day
Will
3:51
Percent chance the Braves steal Harper?
Steve Adams
3:52
I'd call it negligible. I don't (and never really did, as I said early on) see them as an especially viable suitor.
Natitude
3:52
Saw this in a WaPo chat yesterday - interested to hear your thoughts:                                                                                 
"Boras and Harper are waiting for the Nats' final offer, which can't come until the last arbitration case is determined. No, they can't fit Harper's AAV under their current cap, but they can reduce their cap by beating Barraclough in arbitration, trading Eaton, and (here's the trick!) extending Zimmerman for two more years at $5m per, thus reducing his AAV for cap purposes from $18m to a mere $9.3m. Your ruling?"
Steve Adams
3:53
The math on the Zimmerman thing is wrong, for starters.
3:54
His current contract is six years and $100MM, meaning the new deal would become $110MM over eight years. That comes out to $13.75MM for luxury tax purposes.

That suggestion is just taking this year's $18MM, turning it into 3/28, and taking that AAV, which isn't how it'd work.
3:55
Generally, I think they'd be better off just taking the 2019 hit in terms of luxury tax rather than extending Zimmerman just to save a little money up front on the luxury penalty. Maintaining the long-term roster flexibility is more important and more valuable. And Zim is the kind of guy who they can't really cut a year from now if he's not even a $5MM player, because of everything he's meant to the team.
Team Kaptain
3:56
This offseason was fun if you're a Reds fan. Am I right?!?!
Steve Adams
3:57
I'd imagine that to be the case. They're among the more improved clubs thus far, though I'd still like to see them move on from Kemp somehow in order to get Winker everyday ABs. And probably add a real CF, too.
Ateve Sdams
3:57
Is Colten Brewer really the biggest addition to Boston's bullpen this year? Tell me I'm living in an alternate universe.
Steve Adams
3:59
I think they'll add someone in the Sergio Romo mold for a couple million bucks. (Not necessarily him specifically -- just one of the remaining decent relievers who'll probably take $3MM or less).
Metties
3:59
AJ Cole worth the swingman for mets
Steve Adams
4:00
The rate at which he missed bats with the Yankees is enough for me to call him an intriguing fit anywhere that has some bullpen or even rotation spots up for grabs. Mets, sure. A's -- claim him and let him throw 2-3 innings at a time. Giants. Mariners. Etc. etc.
GM X
4:01
Besides Dallas Keuchel, which of the remaining SP am I willing to give a multi-year contract to?
Steve Adams
4:02
I can see Gio getting like 2/16. That's about it.
And even that feels higher than what I'm expecting at this point, but I thought the same about Jason Vargas this time last year, and Gio is better than Vargas.
Andy
4:02
Derek Deitrich to the Cardinals?
Steve Adams
4:03
Mozeliak doesn't sound like he's bringing in any more position players:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/02/nl-central-notes-cardinals-senz...
CJ
4:03
How likely will the A's add another Starting Pitcher this off season?
Steve Adams
4:04
I expect that they'll add another arm to the 40-man roster, be it via trade or free agency. I just can't see a team expecting to contend entering the season with Fiers/Estrada leading the charge.
If Manaea were expected back in May or something, perhaps, but with him out the whole season (plus so many other 2018 surgeries) -- they need more depth.
JeDi
4:05
What kind of return could the M's get for a good first half from Corey's Brother?
Steve Adams
4:06
I consider Seager largely untradeable right now even if he hits well for a couple of months. The fact that his $15MM option for the 2022 season becomes a player option if he is traded ... that's an absolute killer.
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