You are viewing the chat in desktop mode. Click here to switch to mobile view.
X
Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 3/2/22
powered byJotCast
Steve Adams
12:04
Greetings all. Wonder what we'll talk about today!
I'm going to grab something to drink quick -- nonalcoholic, though I could use otherwise given the past few days -- and will get questions rolling in a minute or so.
MLB1225
12:05
I am sad
Steve Adams
12:05
You and me both.
12:06
I was talking with Tim Dierkes this morning, and the shift in general feeling waking up yesterday versus waking up today is jarring.
Guest
12:06
So over or under 120 games played this season
Steve Adams
12:07
I still don't have reason to take the under on that, but it might be closer to 120 than I expected when I was predicting they'd miss 2-3 weeks back in mid-February.
Dave
12:08
Are the only realistic pressure points left 140 games and then cancelling the season?
Steve Adams
12:09
No, I don't think that's the case. The acrimony is obviously palpable, and perhaps canceling the entire season seems less far-fetched now that some games have actually been banged from the schedule, but there's a ways to go before that enters the discussion in earnest.
RandyW
12:09
Wich side has to move the most in order to get a deal done ?
Steve Adams
12:13
There's a portion of our users who'll disagree, of course, but the owners. Both parties went into talks with some things that were obvious nonstarters -- the PA asking for earlier free agency and arbitration for all players with two years of service, for instance -- but the union has dropped more of those nonstarters and was willing to include a 12-team playoff pool.

The league's general openness to the pre-arb bonus pool is nice, but they offered a static $30MM pool ($1MM per team) with no increases, and I'm not sure the PA actually considers that really agreeing to the spirit of the concept. The league at one point was seeking to hard-cap pre-arb salaries that weren't impacted by the bonus pool, too, which probably didn't get the attention it deserved.

The big thing is the CBT movement -- or lack thereof. Offering under a 5% raise in 2022 and then repeating that same threshold for another two seasons just doesn't feel like real progress.
12:14
The frustrating element of all this is that there are enough principals agreed upon -- a pre-arb pool, 12-team playoffs, only changes (not restructuring) of the luxury tax thresholds/penalties -- and the two sides just can't seem to find any kind of middle ground on the actual terms.
Joe
12:14
Honest opinion on Manfred?
Steve Adams
12:16
He is exceptionally good at his job -- which, contrary to many fans' belief, is not to serve as a steward of the game or to protect fan interest. He works for the owners, who nominated him, hired him, extended him, etc. He protects their interests and does so well. He's a strong negotiator and a poor public speaker who tends to put his foot in his mouth. Laughing at multiple points during yesterday's press conference was the most cringe-worthy thing I've seen from him in some time -- even more so than the comical "owning a team is less profitable and riskier than the stock market" (paraphrased, obviously) nonsense.
12:17
You can think all the rotten things you want about Manfred and his impact/legacy, but he's a good negotiator and there's little denying that.
Reds
12:17
Any hope in Castellanos re-signing? Not much rumor of where he may go, us Reds fans are holding onto hope! The Marlins would've been a fit for the Florida boy but with Jeter leaving would that affect a decision?
Steve Adams
12:17
We'll take some non-CBA questions too, of course.
12:19
There hasn't been hope for Castellanos re-signing at any point since he made the obvious call to opt out. Cincinnati is cutting payroll, and GM Nick Krall all but acknowleged as much early in the winter.

Jeter leaving, it sounds like, is in large part because he thought he might have the payroll capacity for the front office to sign a player like Castellanos. That no longer seems to be the case, and he and principal owner Bruce Sherman didn't see eye to eye on the vision for the team moving forward. (Aka, Jeter thought they'd be willing to spend more -- Sherman's thoughts on that front have changed)
12:20
I didn't think Castellanos was going to land in Miami and was surprised to see some reports that they'd been a favorite for him. I don't have a firm answer for where I expect him to land at present, but I strongly do not believe it'll be Cincinnati (or Miami).
Nick
12:20
If the owners & players came to a deal on April 1, would they wait til the 2nd to announce it?
Steve Adams
12:20
Ha
Alexandra Cohen
12:21
Is there any sense that some owners aren't happy with the direction of the negotiations? Or are they united behind Manny?
Steve Adams
12:22
They're all individual people. Even if they can generally rally behind the same cause, there are going to be some owners who fervently want to break the union and others who don't draw such a hard line. There are surely a handful of owners who are less willing to negotiate or budge at all than their peers.
Paul Sewald
12:23
Do you think my recruiting of Kris Bryant for the Ms is working? I know the fans want it.
Steve Adams
12:23
Playing with his high school/college buddy would be a nice silver lining, sure, but it's not going to be a difference maker if the Mariners' offer isn't competitive with others.
Walter
12:23
Has this lockout destroyed /damaged baseball? Or will baseball make a recovery once they start playing again.
Steve Adams
12:26
Of course it has. There are fans who had to cancel travel plans for Spring Training, Opening Day, etc. and have probably taken some notable financial losses in that regard. There are others who maybe were only just getting into the game or who were more casual who'll say "This is stupid and not worth my time." Etc.

I'm not going to delude myself by saying they'll all come back once things resume. Some fans will now be done with baseball, and that's a shame on many levels.

I would, however, reject the notion that MLB is on the cusp of dying right now. It has fallen behind other major sports, but it's still an immensely profitable business that draws strong postseason interest and holds plenty of national appeal.
Guest
12:26
Jeter, the next Yankees GM ? Who says no ?
Steve Adams
12:26
He wasn't even the Marlins' GM.
David
12:27
Am I crazy that I keep siding with the owners? They do have all the financial risk. And a player making even the league minimum for 5 years will still earn more than most people in this country in their lifetime!
Steve Adams
12:32
That player making league minimum also probably spent 3-6 years in the minors making less than minimum wage early on while he shared a two-bedroom apartment with five other teammates and took a part-time job in the offseason just to get by.

I'd contend that there's minimal risk in owning a team; perhaps there's some potential for year-over-year losses -- 2020 certainly -- but franchise values are only going to escalate, and since many view the team purely as a business venture (Steve Cohen notwithstanding), the potential to hit the "eject" button and just sell for a colossal profit is always there as a safety net.

The players, like anyone else in the entertainment industry (movie stars, musicians, etc.) make huge salaries, sure. They also put their bodies through the grinder and are in the 99.9999999th percentile, talent-wise, at a sport we love and pay money to watch/read about. I don't mind their salaries just like I don't get mad at whatever salary the actors in my favorite TV show are collecting.
Both things are true
12:33
The players totally screwed themselves agreeing to the last CBA and the owners don’t owe them a bunch of leeway this time because of their poor negotiation tactics last time, also the owners in the MLB are totally full of crap and have not negotiated in good faith from the beginning leading to this lock out
Steve Adams
12:35
Pretty much. I remember at the 2016 CBA, after the luxury-tax increases were reported, having multiple agents lament to me that the union had doomed itself. I thought they were bad but felt there was some hyperbole at play. I was pretty wrong in retrospect. It was a brutal deal for the Union, so it's no surprise to see them drawing such a hard line.

It's also no surprise that, after trouncing the players in multiple past collective bargaining sessions, the owners aren't super anxious to play nice at the table.
PostMasterP
12:35
Tiger fan here. Assuming Correa gets close to, if not more, than expected, how do you grade the Javy Baez signing?
Steve Adams
12:38
I'm not the person you want to ask, because Baez's skill set is not one that I love. He's one of the most talented players in the sport, but the complete lack of plate discipline creates such a low floor. If he loses bat speed or declines even a little in terms of power/hit tool, you're looking at a guy who is like 20% worse than league average at the plate -- if not more -- because he can't draw a walk to save his life. It's not at all implausible that he could at some point have a 40% strikeout rate and a 4% walk rate.

Baez is an elite fielder with speed, huge power, a fire and energy and personality that I love .... but that type of K/BB profile and lack of OBP safety net always gives me pause.

The 140 is more than I'd have given him, and the opt-out after year two adds a huge amount of downside for the team. Best case scenario, he mashes for two years, opts out and signs elsewhere.
BlowUpTheCBA
12:39
Do you think the (reported) universal DH ultimately leads to a massive realignment/reimagining of the leagues as we know them?  Could it happen during the life of "this" CBA (negotiated and added after the dust settles).
Steve Adams
12:40
The universal DH is going to be in the new CBA, whenever it happens.

I don't think it'll lead to immediate realignment or anything, and any such radical changes surely wouldn't happen in the forthcoming agreement.

I'd imagine any realignment talk is a ways down the road -- after the Rays/A's stadium situations are resolved, and perhaps in conjunction with an expansion to 32 teams.
Brendon
12:40
I generally agree with the players because it’s like if your boss came to you and said, “ the company is doing great. Revenues and profits are up over the last couple years. As such, I’m going to need you to take a pay cut.”
Steve Adams
12:44
Pretty much this. I just separate the actual dollars and focus on the principal. Who doesn't want to maximize their earnings from their employer -- particularly when business is good? And I'm also not going to lie to myself and pretend that, had I been good enough to get to the point where the players are, I wouldn't have the exact same mindset. It's natural.

I understand the frustration that people feel when seeing celebrities quarrel over sums of money people like you and I could never dream of obtaining. The optics are horrific, particularly given the broader context of the world at the moment.

Maybe I'm able to separate myself from the numbers a bit because I'm so desensitized to these sums after writing about them and talking with people who work in the sport (agents, players, team employees, etc.) and throw them around like they're nothing, ha.
Ryan
12:45
Correa to Baltimore?  Little early to be buying into a player of this caliber?
Load More Messages
Connecting…