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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 3/30/21
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Steve Adams
1:59
Baseball that counts is two days away, and we'll most likely have plenty of roster moves and maybe one colossal extension on our hands before the first pitch. Let's chat!
Lindor
1:59
He's nuts, right? Who's going to pay him $400m next winter?
Steve Adams
2:00
He's got a $325MM offer in hand right now without any open-market pressure.
Why is $400MM so crazy? If he goes out and has a huge year, absolutely $400MM is on the table. People generally underestimate how much teams will pay top-tier talent.
Todd Frazier
2:00
Do you think I resigned with the Pirates because there was no other interest out there?
Steve Adams
2:01
No one was willing to put him directly on the MLB roster or he'd have taken that chance. With the Bucs, he's already spent a month getting to know the gang, and that bare-bones roster could/should have an opening before long.
brack
2:02
I said Bauer wasn't worth 30 mil, and he's getting 40, 45 next 2 years.
Steve Adams
2:03
Over a shorter term, but yeah, Bauer is a good example. I'm not saying this to pay myself on the back or anything, but when I've said in the past people would pay $40MM+ for one year of Bauer in these chats I was generally met with mockery. The top dudes will typically get paid, and Lindor is the top dude as things stand right now.
Bryce
2:03
Who are your predictions for ROY?
Steve Adams
2:04
Randy Arozarena and Ke'Bryan Hayes
Since I'm now getting hit with prediction requests on all awards... here we go
2:05
AL ROY: Arozarena
NL ROY: Hayes
AL Cy Young: Lucas Giolito
NL Cy Young: Brandon Woodruff (yeah, I'll get flak for this one)
AL MVP: Anthony Rendon
NL MVP: Juan Soto
Luke Voit
2:05
Will I have a job come June? Or will Bruce hit above ..250 and hit 15+ homers in first half making him fit nicely into balanced lineup?
Steve Adams
2:05
Voit is better than Bruce across the board.
2:06
If he's healthy, he'll play.
O's fan
2:06
Why would "King Felix" opt out his last action was 1 inning and he left with elbow discomfort
Steve Adams
2:07
Orioles might have told him they don't see an opportunity for him at any point in the near future. He might not have enjoyed his month there. He might not be feeling healthy. He might be contemplating retirement. He might have interest on a team more willing to consider him in the nearer future. There are any number of sensible reasons.
Mike Rizzo
2:07
Should have traded Kieboom when he had value huh.. spring training just ruined our chances of trading him. And with the farm so barren we can’t go out and make a move this deadline... Castro is a free agent same as Harrison. I assume Garcia comes up to be the next second basemen.. do that nats go for Escobar or maybe a Bryant next winter??
Steve Adams
2:08
Kieboom still has plenty of value. Is it as high as when he was first on the cusp of breaking through to the Majors? No, but it's not as though he's DFA fodder who'd clear outright waivers or anything now.
Lunar verLander
2:08
I think your boldest prediction is AL MVP going to an Angel NOT name Trout...bold
Steve Adams
2:10
I love Trout and think he's as plausible to win it, but Rendon is a perennially underrated monster, and Trout's defensive marks have really dipped. If he's, ahem, "just" a 160-170 wRC+ guy without much defensive or baserunning value kicked in, it's plausible to me that Rendon plays excellent defense, hits at an elite-but-less-than-Trout level and ends up the more valuable of the two.
John C.
2:10
Much of Lindor's value derives from his defense. Shouldn't that cap the size contract he can expect? The glove won't stay elite forever.
Steve Adams
2:11
You could make that same argument about his offense. It won't stay elite forever so why bother signing him long-term? Almost all of these long, mega deals look questionable by the end.
Ferris
2:11
Walker Buehler has to put everything together soon for a monster Cy Young season, no?
Steve Adams
2:11
Buehler is a monster. He could win a Cy Young at any point in the next few years and I wouldn't be remotely surprised.
Nico Hoerner
2:12
Can you explain how the Cubs can manipulate his service time as a second year player with 1.021 years of service time?   Does it have to do with the 2020 season not being considered a full year?
Steve Adams
2:12
He still needs 151 more days of MLB service this year to reach two full years of service. There are 186 days in the season. If Hoerner spends more than 35 days in the minors (186 minus 151), he won't get to two full years, and his free agency would be pushed back.
2:14
That said, I don't know that you can say they're "manipulating" the service of a guy who batted .222/.312/.259 in 126 plate appearances last year, even if he did rake in 40-50 spring plate appearances
A guy
2:14
Dylan Carlson > ke’bryan Hayes... just sayin.
Steve Adams
2:14
Could very well be.
2:15
But -- Hayes' glovework gives him a huge floor, he'll keep getting opportunities if he struggles, and his exit velos were off the charts last year. I considered Carlson, but ultimately gave my nod to Hayes.
Reds
2:16
Have the reds officially announced that India will be the staring 2B? If so what are realistic numbers that he would put up?
Steve Adams
2:19
I haven't seen a formal announcement, but that seems to be where we're headed. Steamer and ZiPS are pretty bearish on him (.241/.320/.392 and .224/.314/.366), but that's probably to be expected for projection systems on a guy skipping over Triple-A entirely.

If you told me he's going to hit .255/.330/.415 or something in that range, I'd say that's reasonable.
SoCalBrave
2:19
So you think Trout won't win MVP because his defense isn't elite anymore, but you think Soto will win it even though his defense is worse than Trout's?
Steve Adams
2:20
I think Juan Soto can have the best offensive year in baseball, yes.
RenalRickets
2:20
If you had to pick one pitcher this year to throw a No-Hitter, who are you taking?
Steve Adams
2:21
I'd pick someone with an older-school manager who'd be sure to let them go nine even if their pitch count got up, and probably someone who is relatively efficient, as that gives them a chance to go the full nine without getting into 120-130 territory. Zack Greinke?
Dan
2:22
Are we going to see more service time manipulation this because of the uncertainty of the rules under the new CBA?
Steve Adams
2:23
We see teams do it every year. I find it annoying, because I want to watch the best players, but I don't begrudge the teams for taking advantage of a pretty blatant loophole in an antiquated system, either. I'd probably do the same thing.

Anyway, I doubt we'll see more of it because of any lingering CBA talks; if anything we'll just see more of it because teams increasingly think and operate similarly.
Charles Finley
2:24
Can buy all the awards except Giolito.  Not that he's bad but Cy Young?
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