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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 4/9/24
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Steve Adams
8:13
Good morning, all! We're recording a podcast episode with all four of myself, Darragh McDonald, Anthony Franco and Tim Dierkes this morning where we'll discuss all things offseason, so keep an eye out for that on Wednesday!

In the meantime, I'll be back on at 1pm CT today to take your questions, as usual. Feel free to submit questions ahead of time if you like!
12:58
Podcast recorded. Lunch consumed. Let's get underway!
Frustrated Fish Fan
12:59
Are we going to have to endure another total rebuild and start from scratch again? Or will it be a mini rebuild and try again next season?
Steve Adams
1:00
I just don't think they have the position-player talent to really engineer a quick turnaround right now. That can change depending on what they'd receive in theoretical trade packages, of course. Certainly some of their guys -- Luzardo, in particular -- could net some MLB-ready bats.

I think there's a plausible scenario where midway through or late in the 2025 season they have a rotation of some combo including Alcantara, Perez, Garrett, Meyer, Cabrera and Fulton ... that's a pretty nice group. But the bats are going to be harder
1:02
Some of the main pieces they have are already more than half through their club control. Arraez is only controlled through 2025 and seems sure to be traded since he's already making more than $10MM and could push to $14MM+ next year. Jazz is controlled through 2026. (So are Luzardo and Puk, both of whom will be trade candidates themselves as a result)
Maybe they can piece something together and beat expectations, but this a pretty bad team right now that's been made worse by injuries and will see a lot of current contributors on the move before terribly long, I think
Grisham
1:02
What happen to me?  The Yankees get me in a trade but won't let me play.  Do I have to hope for an injury to get any playing time or might they move me to another team?  I'm not happy sitting on the bench.
Steve Adams
1:03
He was acquired to be the fourth outfielder, and that's what he's been. He's not going to start over Judge, Soto or Verdugo with any kind of regularity. Stanton locking up the DH spot makes it harder to give one of the OFs a breather day there and plug Grisham in.

He'll get his playing time. Injuries are inevitable. But a heavy workload for Grisham was never Plan A.
Tj guy
1:04
What about six day rotation for every team to increase the rest period and restoring pitch clock to last year limits?
Steve Adams
1:06
What evidence is there that that would work? Ohtani was in a six-man rotation his entire time in Anaheim and didn't avoid Tommy John surgery. Nor did several of his rotationmates.

I don't think the extra two second reduction in this year's pitch clock is doing much. There are dozens of factors contributing to the uptick in arm problems. The pitch clock is one possible contributing factor, but it's probably being blamed disproportionately due to recency bias.
1:08
The fact that all of the names going down with UCL injuries this year are prominent guys isn't helping things, either. Travis Sawchik with The Score recently ran the numbers, and there have been fewer Tommy Johns through this point in 2024 than there were in 2021, 2015 and 2014. So it's not like we've never seen injuries on this scale before -- the ones that are happening are just happening to Shane Bieber, Eury Perez, etc. -- pretty notable pitchers that draw more headlines.
Greg Maddux
1:08
Shouldn’t every level of baseball address the pitching injury concerns by teaching pitchers how to pitch and not just fall in love with a radar gun?
Steve Adams
1:10
The notion that pitchers can just "go back" to focusing on location and not on wicked, high-spin breaking balls and blistering velocity doesn't feel rooted in reality. Hitters today are in better shape, more talented and hunting for extra-base hits more than ever before. You don't see guys going up there and dropping down sacrifice bunts or trying to push weak contact the other way to move a runner up a base.

Even if you could guarantee that backing down velo and deemphasizing spin would keep pitchers healthy -- which you can't -- it would just keep them healthier while worsening their results, in all likelihood.
1:11
It's the same as when people say hitters need to just go back to slapping the ball the other way and bunting. That was easier when the average fastball was 5-6 mph slower than it is now and when guys weren't throwing 92 mph sliders.
Don
1:11
If Strider is out for the year, do you think the Braves roll with the prospects (Elder, Smith-Shaver, Waldrep) and suspects (Winans, Dodd, Ynoa and Anderson) or try to work trade market. Unless a top of the rotation guy comes available, I would be more inclined to give my guys a chance.
Steve Adams
1:14
In the short term, it'll likely be in-house arms. I could see if enough injuries pile up or if the rotation is performing poorly, a scenario where they're aggressive on the summer trade market.

But they're already well into the luxury tax territory. Adding basically any more payroll is going to push them past the point where their top pick in next year's draft drops by 10 spots, which is a breaking point for several clubs. And they'll also be taxed heavily on any additional dollars added (72.5%) as a second-time payor who's on the brink of the third penalty bracket.
1:15
They're a win-now club, so that won't matter if the deadline rolls around and they're in dire need of starting rotation help. But the farm system isn't great anyway, and their luxury situation makes it seem unlikely they'd take on considerable contracts in order to lessen the prospect returnl
Chip
1:15
Do you think Soto gets $500mm?
Steve Adams
1:16
Early to say but if he has a typical Soto season, I'd be inclined to lean that way, yeah
Matt (Oceanside)
1:16
My dad was a longtime baseball coach. His opinion on the leading contributing factor for pitcher injuries, is teaching kids at the high school level and younger, whose bodies are still developing, how to throw curve balls and sliders with extreme spin. This puts a lot of stress and miles on still-developing elbows and shoulders.
Steve Adams
1:19
Yeah, lots of people have said this is a factor for years. It's probably true to an extent. Early stress on developing arms. Also, kids playing baseball year round rather than playing multiple sports. And extreme workloads in high school and college when those coaches don't care about making a kid throw 160 pitches in a day, then go back out three days later.

There's also the focus on velocity, the pitch clock, the advent of a more horizontal slider (sweeper), the fact that a bunch of pitchers either basically took 2020 off or worked a fraction of their workload, then came back and tried to ramp up to a 162-game schedule.

There are dozens of factors here. To suggest there's one root cause seems silly. Baseball inherently asks pitchers to do something that is wholly unnatural, and they're doing it at a level that increasingly pushes the bounds of realistic physical expectations of the human anatomy.
Chase
1:19
I love the weekly podcast! Keep
up the good work.
Steve Adams
1:20
Thanks! Tomorrow's episode will have me, Tim, Anthony and Darragh all on there. It think it's about 90 minutes long and offers a huge postmortem on our offseason predictions, our expectations for future collective barganing negotiations and more. Check it out!
Cheese
1:20
I want to see more pitchers pull a Matt Waldron and have knuckleballs to reduce wear and tear - more knuckeballers would be fun!
Steve Adams
1:21
I'd love to see more knucklers. It's a hard pitch to throw and harder pitch to catch, though. I understand why it's faded from prominence, but yeah, give me more weird baseball quirks. Mix in an eephus here and there, too!
Trevor Story
1:22
So does Boston get an interim replacement?
Steve Adams
1:23
They didn't do much when they lost Lucas Giolito. They didn't do much this offseason, period. I know they're out to a nice start, but I'm not expecting a proactive move to bring in someone notable at shortstop. Could certainly make a waiver claim or sign a journeyman depth type to a minor league deal, but a trade of significance feels unlikely.
Famous Mortimer
1:24
One of the ideas I saw floated was reducing the number of pitchers on the 26 man, forcing them to dial it down a little. Any thoughts?
Steve Adams
1:24
Fewer pitchers on the 26-man just means forcing tired pitchers to work when they'd otherwise have been off. Or leads to increasing roster churn and cycling DFA candidates through that final spot on the roster, which is its own issue that could eventually become problematic.
Marlins
1:25
Should I expect a return similar to Jordan Hicks, Paul Seward or Scott Barlow for Tanner Scott?
Steve Adams
1:25
Hicks is the most direct comparable, since he was an impending free agent when he was moved -- as Scott is right now. Sewald and Barlow both had 1.5 seasons of control left when they were traded.
Cards
1:26
Would Oakland be willing to swap Blackburn for Burleson and a few prospects?
Steve Adams
1:27
"A few prospects" is a pretty nebulous term. Sure, I can see Burleson holding appeal to them. I don't know that Burleson and a couple of org guys who don't have much value is going to move the needle in a trade offer, though. The A's already have a fair number of all-bat corner guys who haven't exactly proven they can hit in the majors.
Jerry Dipoto
1:27
What should my panic level be for my team's 4-7 start?
Steve Adams
1:28
I feel like Mariner fans have been panicking over slow starts for like four straight years now (2024 included)
1:29
I mean, every team's fan base panics when it starts slow. But the Mariners have been slow starters for several years and rallied to contend each time. It's an ultra-talented rotation, and the lineup's better than it's been through a tiny 11 game sample. I wouldn't draw major conclusions. Outside of some teams that we knew were bad to begin with (White Sox, Rockies, Marlins kind of) -- I don't think any slow start to this point is all that damning.
Barney
1:30
Will only desperate free agents sign with Sacramento?
Steve Adams
1:30
I can't imagine it being anyone's top choice. But hey, you go where they money takes you more often than not.

Of course, I will also believe a John Fisher-led team will spend aggressively, in any capacity, when I see it.
Beer Noises
1:31
I dont understand the leagues obsession with the pitch timer.  Its all good but I dont understand why they continue to want to reduce the time between pitches.  20 seconds worked fine.  some would say that they wanted the time adjusted to 25 seconds.  Now they change it this season to 18 seconds.  Its not making more than a 10 minute difference in game time.  It just seems like MLB is focusing in the wrong area
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