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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 7/16/24
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Steve Adams
8:46
The All-Star break is here, and the trade deadline is two weeks away! Plenty to talk about. We'll get going at 1pm CT, but as always, you can submit questions ahead of time!
John
1:02
Just saw a report that the Dodgers and Orioles are looking to trade for Tarik Skubal.  Have you heard anything?
Steve Adams
1:02
Let's get underway!
1:05
So yes, Tom Verducci from Sports Illustrated did say the Dodgers and Orioles have Skubal atop their list of targets. Which makes sense. Both are looking for starting pitching. Verducci added that Skubal is highly unlikely to move, which has been the expectation all along.

I don't think there's any big revelation here. Two SP-hungry contenders with deep farms have the best pitcher in the AL (or one of the best pitchers in the AL) atop their wishlist. That's pretty common sense. I don't think the report really does anything to change anyone's thoughts on anything. Skubal's still unlikely to move, unless Baltimore comes in with something crazy like Mayo+Basallo both headlining an offer.
squinky
1:05
The mariner plan to decrease batting strikeouts is a clear failure. Team batting average is lowest in MLB. What are they waiting for on acquiring a bat? They have they assets to do it.
Steve Adams
1:06
It takes two teams to get something done. There haven't been any bats of note traded yet. It's not just the Mariners. There aren't many hitters who are earnestly available yet. Trades will pick up after the draft, particularly in the final few days leading up to the deadline.

The most "available" bat right now might be Jesse Winker, and the Mariners have been there before.
Fred
1:07
There isn’t any serious conversation about the Mets trading Alonso right now right? The team is in possession of a WC spot and he can carry them on a run if he gets hot at the right time
Steve Adams
1:07
No, Alonso isn't getting moved as long as the Mets are even within arm's reach of a WC spot.
Glenn
1:07
Do you think the Ray's will trade Eflin
Steve Adams
1:08
I do, personally. The backloaded $18MM salary next year, Springs coming off the IL -- Rasmussen not terribly far behind him, etc.
And as with Maton and Civale before him, that won't be an indication of a fire sale so much as the Rays dealing from positions of depth to maintain some flexibility with the payroll
Jim Crane
1:08
Will I pay Bregman and Tucker or lose one or both of them?
Steve Adams
1:10
I don't think the Astros are going to sign either player long-term, but Bregman will cost less and command a shorter deal (Tucker is younger and better), so Bregman would be likelier to stick around.

The Astros, under Crane's ownership, haven't given out a deal longer than six years or more lucrative than Jose Altuve's $151MM extension (the last one, not the new one). Tucker will shatter both of those.
Luc
1:10
Are the Giants just holding to see what can happen?
Steve Adams
1:10
Them and about seven to eight other teams around the league, yeah
That one A’s fan
1:11
I doubt a team will offer a package to the A’s liking for Miller or Rooker, but could the A’s receive a good trade package for Blackburn?
Steve Adams
1:12
It'd be better if he were healthy... I know he's out on a rehab assignment at the moment and could be back before the deadline, but the 60-day stint isn't helping him. He'll probably still have more value now than he will in the offseason when he has just one year of club control left though, so yeah I think he has a pretty decent chance to go, barring any notable setbacks that call his return date into question.
James Click
1:13
When do I get the GM job in Toronto, and how big of a mess am I going to be taking over?
Steve Adams
1:14
I do think there's a chance Click ultimately replaces Atkins, but it's probably less of a foregone conclusion than some have suggested. At any rate, the farm isn't great, the control over Vlad/Bo is dwindling, the pitchers under contract are all entering their mid-30s. It's not great, but I still think they'll take another shot next year before committing to any kind of retooling.
Vlad and Bo
1:14
are they on the move?
Steve Adams
1:15
Not in the next couple weeks, barring a genuinely surprising offer that's too good for them to pass on.
Pirate Maximus
1:15
Why haven't the reds dumped their veteran relievers?  They're out of it and so many teams need bullpen help
Steve Adams
1:15
They're three games out of a Wild Card spot
Guarded Indian
1:15
Does Valera get it done to put Rooker in Cleveland or do we need to sweeten the offer a bit more.  Rooker in Cleveland makes so much sense.
Steve Adams
1:18
Valera alone isn't close to enough for Rooker at this point. Valera's stock has tanked. He's in the midst of a second straight poor season in AAA in what's his third year at the level. Injuries have played a role, but he's been active since May 1 and has like an 80 wRC+ in AAA. This question either overrates his trade value based on prior rankings, underrates Rooker's value -- or both.

I agree Rooker is a sensible fit in Cleveland, but the trade package would be far more painful than that. If Valera's included, it's going to be as a secondary piece.
Redsfan43
1:18
2 questions 1). Why will MLB NOT go back to the players wearing their own teams uniforms?? I always felt it was better and easier to recognize players. 2) MLB needs to allow draft picks to be traded. This could only be done on draft day so you have two deadlines. The Draft trade deadline day and July 31st deadline. I think this would appeal to fans as well.
Steve Adams
1:19
1) Because printing new All-Star jerseys every year means they can sell new All-Star jerseys every year and make money.

2) There's no good reason that draft picks can't be traded. It's silly and a missed opportunity for MLB. As you said, it'd make the draft more interesting, deadline season more interesting, the offseason more interesting, etc. etc. etc.
It's one of the easiest layups MLB could implement and they just don't. I don't get it.
Brewerfan
1:20
Do you think the Brewers move one of Wiemer, Frelich, Mitchell, Perkins in a move for an arm?
Steve Adams
1:21
Given the depth they have and the long-term deals for both Yelich and Chourio, yeah I think any of those names can/will be in play in the next two weeks. I do think MIL will get a starter. I do think teams with SPs available will be inquiring about their outfielders. I don't think it's a given that the ultimate trade is SP-for-OF, but that framework obviously makes quite a bit of sense, given the Brewers' depth.
Ralph Houk
1:21
Can Jasson Dominguez be counted on at all this season or will 2025 be his next opportunity to play?
Steve Adams
1:23
No one's counting him out for the season, but I don't think you can operate under the assumption that in late August, he's going to come up, step right into the big league lineup, and produce. First and foremost, with Judge/Soto/Verdugo/Stanton they don't have an easy opening (barring an injury). And secondly he's a 21-year-old with 18 games of AAA experience, plus another eight in the majors last year. He's super talented, but he'd hardly be the first ultra-talented 21-year-old to struggle in his initial extended look at the MLB level
School of hard rocks
1:24
Quantrill and Diaz for Daniel Espino and a lottery arm? Obviously Espino hasn't pitched more than half a year since '21 but his upside is real
Steve Adams
1:24
I don't think A) The Guardians would trade to bring back a starter they shipped out in a deal that was largely a salary dump, B)The Rockies would trade meaningful assets for a kid who's had multiple shoulder surgeries and been unable to pitch for the better part of three seasons.
Kurt the Hurt
1:25
By encouraging small market teams to rebuild through the draft. I don't think it would be helpful to just let them trade those draft picks away. Look how Skenes has impacked The Pirates already .
Steve Adams
1:29
Sure, and look how much people were salivating over Skenes/Crews/Langford/Jenkins/Clark for so much of draft season. Every single one of those top five picks was regarded as someone who'd go 1-1 in a normal, less-deep draft class. Trading the No. 1 selection -- giving that trade partner their pick of the litter -- would have come with colossal trade value. The Pirates would likely have gotten impact talent that could've stepped onto the roster even sooner than Skenes did.

Alternatively, look in the past at prior 1-1 picks who were the consensus top talent and have not yet panned out. Spencer Torkelson was the clear top name in his draft class. The Tigers would be better off if they'd have traded that pick for talent.

Easy comment to make with the benefit of hindsight, but the general point is that your argument works both ways and really is no different than a team trading an uncertain prospect for immediate MLB help. There's always risk/reward, and it comes down to evaluating the players/picks properly
Orioles
1:30
Are the Orioles more likely to deal guys like Stowers, Norby, and mid to lower level prospects for quantity of mid level arms or top end guys like Kjerstaad and Mayo for quality top level arms?
Steve Adams
1:31
That's my expectation, though I think they SHOULD be willing to give up Mayo/Basallo etc.

I've said it before but it bear repeating: you're currently guaranteed one year of Corbin Burnes. Take advantage of it. Go big. (Especially if "going big" includes getting a Crochet, Skubal, etc. who you control for multiple additional seasons)
Rich Hill
1:32
Am I still planning on signing on for the second half? If so where might I end up?
Steve Adams
1:34
He said publicly a couple months ago that was the plan. You could make a case for most pitching-needy teams. But Hill probably isn't Plan A for a lot of clubs, so it'd be sensible to wait until the deadline passes, then sign with a contender that still needs pitching. Brewers, Dodgers, Astros, Guardians, etc. etc. -- there's no shortage of teams seeking rotation help
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