You are viewing the chat in desktop mode. Click here to switch to mobile view.
X
Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams 8/17/21
powered byJotCast
Steve Adams
1:55
Greetings all
Another week another chat -- let's get underway!
Cleveland 4 Life
1:56
Thoughts on what cleveland should do in the offseason? They already have their starting pitching which is a plus but maybe OF trades or signings?? Winker? Reynolds? Canha?
Steve Adams
1:58
I wouldn't be so confident in their starting pitching. They have plenty of good arms, headlined by Bieber and Civale, but a large reason they completely fell off the map this year was that once Bieber, Civale and Plesac went on the IL, the rest of their young arms proved unready.

Obviously some of them have looked much better lately -- McKenze, Morgan, etc. -- but I think there's plenty of room to add to that grouping.

As for a trade for Winker or Reynolds, I think the price will be pretty steep in terms of prospects on both, particularly with Cincinnati looking to contend. Plus, Winker's arbitration salary is going to explode over the next two seasons. By the time the 2022-23 offseason rolls around, we'll be asking whether Cleveland wants to pay him $12MM+ for his final year or if they're going to trade him themselves.
2:00
Canha would be a sensible target, sure, but I think he's among the more underrated free agents on the market and will probably cost more than some are expecting. If he ends up slipping because of strong corner options elsewhere though, then absolutely go for it.

I'd add a starting pitcher, certainly an outfielder, move one of Hedges/Perez, look hard at the bullpen and consider second basemen whose markets slip -- because 2B-only players always fall through the cracks (which is why Cleveland had Cesar Hernandez in the first place)
Jeets
2:01
What does a Willson Contreras to the Marlins trade look like?
Steve Adams
2:02
Something built around near-MLB pitching, but honestly, Contreras is a free agent after 2022. If the Marlins can't extend him, they're right back where they started -- with no long-term catcher. Given that their "best" offer to Starling Marte was something in the 3/38 range, I don't put much stock in them being able to actually convince Contreras to sign. I think they should look younger -- or at least look at players who'd cost less to acquire and to extend.
Hamels
2:02
Do you think his career is over? And if so, will he make the HOF?
Steve Adams
2:03
It's totally up to him. If he wants to try another comeback in 2022, he'll absolutely have teams willing to give him a non-roster invite to camp at the very least -- if not a low-base, incentive-rich MLB deal.
2:04
He's borderline hall-worthy. I feel like he's a guy who'd fall a little short. (I'd personally be fine with him getting voted in, but I don't fret too much about who gets in and who doesn't)
Eric T
2:05
Do you think penalizing teams for signing free agents by taking away draft picks will be eliminated in the new CBA? Want to stop tanking stop penalizing spending.
Steve Adams
2:07
It has less to do with the draft compensation than with the fact that the only paths to amateur talent acquisition are tied directly to who loses the most games. The Orioles and Pirates didn't sit out free agency because a few guys had draft picks attached to them. Either had more than enough money to mix it up in the middle tiers, build up the roster and still avoid draft penalization.

But the team with the worst record gets not only the top pick but also the biggest draft bonus pool. They also get the biggest international free-agent pool. Etc. When you don't let teams spend what  they want in the draft, in international free agency, etc... the only way for them to "rebuild" the farm is to tear the roster down to the studs to accumulate prospects via trades and also to make their MLB roster so putrid they're ensured a top 3-5 pick.
2:08
Go with some kind of lottery. Structure the first round so the top non-playoff team has the top pick. Allow the trading of draft picks. There are a lot of ways to shake this up, but as long as the only way to build a farm is to lose, teams are going to keep losing on purpose.
Ghost of Rick Sutcliffe
2:08
Can Sherzer win the NL Cy Young?
Steve Adams
2:09
With a big enough finish, sure. But he's what? 40ish innings behind Wheeler? And he's trailing Burnes and Woodruff notably in ERA and/or K's. It's Max Scherzer, so sure he can do it, but I don't think he's a favorite.
Mariner Moose
2:09
Top FA targets for the M's?
Steve Adams
2:12
Starting pitching. Gilbert looks good, they have Hancock and Kirby coming. Marco will probably bounce back to an extent, Jury is out on Sheffield and Dunn. Flexen is nice but not controlled that long. I don't think they're going to outbid the field for Gausman, but they ought to be in on every above-average pitcher in the three- to four-year contract range. DeSclafani, Ray, Stroman ... could even look into the older but higher-end guys like a Scherzer, Verlander, Greinke. Might be tougher to convince them to sign with a team on the rise rather than an established playoff club, though.
Colin
2:12
Which of the big FA SS get the least years/$$$ this off-season?
Steve Adams
2:14
I'd say Baez or Story, because they're the two likeliest to go the pillow route at this point. Neither has had a great year. Baez in particular seems like the type to hit the market with big expectations but find the market frostier, because teams are going to be really harsh on a .280 OBP and a 37% strikeout rate.
Mackenzie Gore
2:14
If Jake Arrieta is getting an opportunity, shouldn't I at least get a look or two to try and help my team get out of this funk?
Steve Adams
2:16
Gore hasn't even pitched in a Triple-A game since June. He gave up 17 runs in 20 AAA frames and then got sent to the Padres' spring training complex to work on his mechanics. He is not regarded anywhere near as highly at the moment as many think him to be based on the fact that he was a Top 5 overall prospect a couple years ago.
Loyalroyal84
2:16
Does Dayton Moore make a big splash in free agency or a couple of trades around winter meetings? It seems he believes KC can contend next season.
Steve Adams
2:18
Moore, the Royals' GM, believed as much this year, too. He still topped out with two-year deals for Santana and Minor. I don't think you'll see much more than that this time around. The Royals are big believers in their internal youth movement, so I'd expect another handful of two-year deals. Probably a couple relievers on one-year deals as well.
Road Dogg
2:18
Was Cole Hamels deal pro rated or are the Dodgers paying him a full million to basically just say he was a dodger this year?
Steve Adams
2:19
I can look into this to confirm it, but generally speaking, when a deal is reported to have a $1MM base salary -- that's the base amount for a 186-game season. I would imagine his deal was prorated, but as I said, I've not looked into it. I can certainly do so and have a better answer next week.
Buehler
2:20
What do i need to do to win the cy young?
Steve Adams
2:20
Jeez, I didn't even mention Buehler before and he might be the favorite. Stay healthy, keep doing what you're doing, and hope one of Wheeler or the Brewers dudes has a few bumpy outings over the next six weeks.
Matt Cain
2:22
Kevin Gausman was looking a little shaky in that first inning last night against the NY. Do you think he is going to find the consistency he had to start the first half to take us though the next 43 games and start the playoffs?
Steve Adams
2:23
Gausman has been awesome over his past 36 games now. I wouldn't worry about a shaky first inning or even about a couple rocky starts over his past month. He's right in that NL Cy Young conversation as well, for me.
Kris Bryant
2:24
will Scott Boris allow me to sign with SF before I hit free agency? I think I really have found a home here and sounds like Farhan has me in his sights for an extension like my buddy B-Craw!
Steve Adams
2:25
Boras works for Bryant. If Bryant wants to take an offer the Giants give him, he's going to take it. That said, Bryant himself has obviously been very interested in reaching free agency; the Cubs certainly tried to extend him.

If the Giants make some enormous offer -- north of Anthony Rendon money or something -- sure, maybe he'll skip the open market. But extending Crawford and extending Bryant are two very different things for the SF front office.
Hew852
2:25
Does Arenado opt out or sign long term with the Cards?
Steve Adams
2:26
He's already signed. It's just up to him whether he wants to opt out of the final six years of his deal. I don't think he'd top what he's owed in free agency right now, and he said right after the trade that he planned to stay in STL long term.
Large Marge
2:27
Will the Reds be able to sign Nick Castellanos after he opts out following this season?  What do you think a new contract would look like in terms of years and dollars?
Steve Adams
2:29
I don't think so. He should easily get more than the 5/110 that JD Martinez got in Boston. I imagine Boras and Castellanos will be looking for six years -- which means we'll see early reports about a seven-year asking price, haha -- and we haven't seen the Reds spend at that level in free agency in the past.
Walleye Wade
2:30
Will that Toronto kid be the twins starting SS next spring??
Steve Adams
2:30
I assume this is in reference to Austin Martin. I don't think so, no. It's not certain he'll stick at SS. They may view him as a CF or 2B long-term, though he'll get the chance to play all over. He'll be up sometime in 2022, though, and I'd bet on earlier than later.
Ross Atkins
2:31
Does 4/70 get an extension done for Teoscar Hernandez?  Some risk on both sides, some security for a young player who likes it in Toronto.
Steve Adams
2:33
That deal doesn't make sense for the Jays. Teoscar is earning $4.3MM as an Arb1 player this year. Even if you're very aggressive with his arb projections and say he's going to earn, say, $9MM in 2022 and $15MM in 2023 (which is quite aggressive), then you're talking two free agent years at $46MM. The Jays aren't going to pay $23MM per free-agent year on Hernandez, nor would the open market value him as such, I don't believe.
2:35
Something more in the range of five years and $60-70MM is probably more sensible, but I also don't know they need to be compelled to do that. Hernandez won't keep hitting .315, and when his average regresses, the OBP Is going to fall into average territory. He's a nice player, but he's not a superstar and the floor is always lower on players who don't walk much and are reliant on BABIP and HR/FB to keep their OBP at strong levels.
Load More Messages
Connecting…