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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 9/24/24
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Steve Adams
8:55
Good morning! One week out from playoff baseball! I'll get started at 1pm CT, but feel free to submit questions about the playoff hunt, the offseason, free agency, etc. ahead of time if you're so inclined.
12:55
Good afternoon! Let's get this week's chat underway
Black Pearl
12:55
Likelihood that Shelton gets fired in Pitt? His in-game decisions and mound mgmt are terrible.
Steve Adams
12:56
I don't see any reason to expect it after Ben Cherington came out and said he expects Shelton to manage the team in 2025.
Fred Lynn
12:56
Will my Sox try to sign Nick Pivetta before/during the free agency period? Up to this point he has been durable. His WHIP has been south of 1.15 the last two seasons. His k\9 has been above 9+ for most of his career. What would a contract look like monetarily? 3yrs for 30/36? Or 3yrs for 54/60? Or?
Steve Adams
12:59
I can see the Sox looking into a reunion, sure. Pivetta is durable, his K-BB profile is quite good -- better than his ERA. He's too homer-prone, which gets him in trouble and probably means metrics like SIERA and xFIP are always going to overvalue him, since he's proven over the years that his HR/FB rate just isn't going to regress to the league minimum.

Your instinct on a three-year deal seems on point to me. Since 2016, the only SPs who've signed a free-agent deal of four years or more beginning in their age-32 season or later are Jacob deGrom and Hyun Jin Ryu.

Pivetta doesn't have the track record of either. A three-year deal seems likely, and I think somewhere in the $15-18MM per year range is attainable. We saw both Taillon and Walker hit that level of AAV in free agency a couple years back (on four-year deals, no less ... albeit when they were both a year younger than Pivetta is now)
Never gets a question answered
12:59
Cardinals press conference next week. Mozoliak out, moving to a Sr. advisory role and Bloom named as PBO. Your thoughts?
Steve Adams
12:59
None of this would surprise me
Roar of '24
1:00
How 'bout those Tigers? Think they can make a run?
Steve Adams
1:00
They're already on one!
But yeah, I'm loving the late surge and the drama it's created. Detroit has a fun young club, tons of payroll space ... even if they don't end up in the postseason, or if they get bounced in round one, it's going to be a fun offseason to be a Tigers fan
Pache
1:00
White Sox pickup? Or no one claims?
Steve Adams
1:01
They've passed on him multiple times already. I suppose you could argue they've got nothing to lose, but I doubt he lasts the whole offseason on someone's 40-man roster. I think he'll eventually clear waivers.
Tony Taters
1:02
Chances of a change in dugout leadership in Baltimore if there isn't a deep playoff run?
Steve Adams
1:02
I would be very surprised if they moved on from Brandon Hyde. He was Mike Elias' pick, has overseen the entire rebuild, etc.
Todd
1:03
Cubs are claiming they want to pick up front end rotation depth. Would that more likely be via trade or free agent? Also, who's out there to pick up? Cubs always drag out the off season.
Steve Adams
1:04
There just aren't going to be many high-end starters available on the trade market. In free agency, you'll have Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, Max Fried, Jack Flaherty and others .... free agency is the easier (and of course, more expensive) path for that goal.
Bill DeWitt Jr.
1:04
Do the Dodgers still pursue Adames or is Edman the starting SS next year?
Steve Adams
1:05
I'd expect them to be firmly in the Adames market alongside clubs like the Giants, Padres ... maybe the Braves. Maybe the Tigers.
Brian
1:06
Someone going to pick up Kimbrel?
Steve Adams
1:06
Not before the end of the season. He'd be postseason-ineligible for a new club, and a non-contending team isn't going to sign him for a week.

But in the offseason, assuming he wants to keep pitching, yeah someone will give him a one-year deal at a lower rate than the $13MM he earned this year.
BaseballFan1
1:07
Who are the top free agent catchers next year and who do you see going where?
Steve Adams
Guarded Indian
1:07
Should the Rockies take the Cleveland approach and draft pitchers in bulk?  Eventually a few of them have to make it as legit MLB pitchers.  No free agent other than washouts and veterans trying to hang on are going to sign in Denver so why not buy in bulk?
Steve Adams
1:09
The Rockies haven't necessarily suffered from a lack of pitching prospects in the system in the first place -- it's developing them that's been their issue. Frankly it's just been player development (position players and pitchers alike) in general.

I don't think stocking up on pitchers and deliberately passing over an infielder or outfielder you like better just because you want to stockpile arms is a wise solution. They should be more willing to trade young hitters for established pitching than they have been in the past, though. (Which they basically haven't been willing to do ... at all)
GiantsFan
1:10
Do you see Snell resigning in SF. Giants need starting pitching badly
Steve Adams
1:11
My answer to that will hinge somewhat on what happens with the front office. Long-term deals for pitchers just have not been in Farhan Zaidi's playbook. If they're still going to entrust him as the head of baseball ops this winter, then I'd lean against Snell staying. If he's replaced by an outside hire, it could become more likely (depending who that hire is)
Beer Noises
1:11
It looks like Rhys Hoskins might exercise his player option to play next year for the Brewers, but if he lights it up in the playoffs, do you see him taking a chance and opting out?
Steve Adams
1:12
It would need to be a pretty big postseason run. He just hasn't been very good this year. I expect him to pick up the option right now
Sam and Dave
1:12
How do you see Bryson Stott as a player? The defense is terrific, and he appeared to be a guy that would be a plus hitter for sure, however this has been a mildly disappointing season. Sophomore adjustments, or is he just not quite a good enough hitter to commit for the long haul?
Steve Adams
1:15
He's not someone I'd prioritize locking up on an extension. Doesn't mean he can't improve in the future, but he's a solid defender who adds value on the bases and puts the ball in play -- but rarely does so with much impact. His batted-ball metrics are weak across the board. I think he can be a quality regular at second in his current state ... probably a bit below-average offensively with good glovework and plus baserunning. Plus, he holds his own against lefties enough that he doesn't need to be heavily platooned.
He's not someone I'd feel like I'm in a rush to commit $10MM+ annually for his free-agent years or anything though.
UncleMike1525
1:16
The Cubs need a LH reliever soince Smyly is gone to pair with Little so what are the odds they go after Tanner Scott? He would give them a proven Closer to pair with Hodge and CC can mix and match. I know Hoyer is paranoid about spending money on a Closer but I think it's a bigger need than a Starter. Thoughts? Thanks as always.
Steve Adams
1:17
I agree that the Cubs should rethink their refusal to spend on bullpen arms, but their most lucrative FA deals in recent memory are Hector Neris and Craig Kimbrel, both of which bombed. I doubt that's going to do much to make Hoyer and especially owner Tom Ricketts want to invest multiple years in a reliever.
Capital Tankers
1:18
are Max fried/Pete Alonso realistic free agent targets for the Nats?
Steve Adams
1:19
Realistic in the sense that the Nats have a wide-open payroll outlook, yeah. Their president of baseball ops/GM Mike Rizzo has gone on record saying he wants to go after middle-of-the-order bats, so I think Alonso's more realistic. The last two big-money deals the Nats have given to starting pitchers were Patrick Corbin and Stephen Strasburg. Another six-year deal for a starter (i.e. Fried) might not exactly be high on their to-do list.
Joshua
1:20
A FA fit I haven't heard much about would be Alex Bregman to the Nationals. He seems a perfect Jayson Werth type signing, has a winning pedigree, and is a solid all around player obviously. I know the Nats have Brady House seemingly waiting in the wings, but all prospects have question marks and the Nats should be in the accumulation of proven talent phase of the rebuild. Plus House could possibly be used as a top trade piece in a deal for a SP or another need. Could you see this fit at all? Thanks.
Steve Adams
1:21
You could use this logic to put the Nationals in the mix for just about every top-tier free agent. I think House will probably get a look before they block him with a Bregman-type addition.
squinky
1:22
Willy Adams most likely destination?
Steve Adams
1:24
Dodgers (Rojas to utility role), Giants (Fitzgerald to 2B), Padres (Kim is a free agent), Braves (Arcia has underwhelmed) all fit. Tigers make sense if they're comfortable having Baez and him both on the books.

I think the Jays are an interesting possibility, if they are indeed committed to going for it in '25. If they're not going to extend Bichette, they could finally move him off SS and then at least for one year have Vlad, Bo and Adames in the same infield. Pure speculation, to be clear, but I expect the Jays will be motivated (or just kind of desperate) this winter.
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