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Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat
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Dave Cameron
11:22
So, after a slow start, we have something to talk about. David Price to Boston, Greinke likely choosing beween LA and SF in the next day or two, and of course, the rumored blockbuster of Yonder Alonso to the A's.
With the winter meetings kicking off Monday, let's get our speculation game on, and try to figure out what is going to happen over the next few weeks.
11:23
The queue is now open, and we'll get started around noon.
11:24
Also, you'll note that the Jotcast team made a bunch of improvements to the chat software after feedback from you guys last week, so feel free to keep providing more; their responsiveness means that we can hopefully make this a great experience for both chatter and reader.
11:52
Alright, let's start a few minutes early, since the queue is already filling up.
Nick
11:52
Thoughts on the M's dumping Trumbo? Does Aoki provide similar value for (probably) about half the cost?
Dave Cameron
11:53
Yeah, I think that's about right. Both are +1ish WAR players, so the M's saved $5 million by signing Aoki and giving away Trumbo. A 1B should theoretically be easier to find than an OF as well.
Eddy
11:53
Will players ever be open to the idea of an inflated, record-breaking AAV in return for shorter years to avoid that back-end decline? Example: $120 million for 3 years of Price.
Dave Cameron
11:55
Ever? Sure, but there's no real incentive for either side to do this. Long deals are essentially a way for teams to defer present costs interest free, and the time value of money makes it far better for them to do long deals instead of short ones for the same price. And players generally don't need more cashflow, so moving up their payment schedule usually isn't worth it.
Plus, high AAV/shorter deals would make it harder for a team to build a winning roster around that guy, so he's probably hurting his own chances of making the postseason.
Meowmix
11:56
Is signing 29yr old stud pitchers to large 7 year deals with an opt-out after 3, and then letting them walk after 3 years, and then repeating the process with the next 29yr old, not that bad of an idea?
Dave Cameron
11:56
You're assuming the stud pitcher will pitch like a stud and opt-out. It is more likely that Price will struggle and/or get hurt by 2018, and instead the Red Sox will still have him for years 4-7.
Walking with d'Arnaudsaurs
11:57
Am I wrong, as a total third party observer, for actually kind of liking the Aoki signing and Trumbo trade for the M's? Aoki is probably still a fine outfielder, and the Mariners needed somebody, anybody,to serve as a catcher.
Dave Cameron
11:57
Well, Clevenger is nothing, and will just be a veteran backup behind Iannetta to let them send Zunino to AAA. The fact that the Mariners are sending a second player along with Trumbo for a 30 year old with negative career WAR should tell you all you need to know about Trumbo's trade value.
Q-Ball
11:58
That Alonso "blockbuster"....can you walk us through what the Padres are likely thinking here? Clearing a position for Kemp and/or Myers? The Padres are on a rebuild now...right?
Dave Cameron
11:58
Sounds like Myers moving to 1B; they may have non-tendered Alonso anyway.
And I doubt they're going to go full-scale rebuild.
Zonk
11:59
If Dustin Pedroia were a FA today, do you think he would top the 6/85 extension the Red Sox signed him to starting in 2016?
Dave Cameron
11:59
No question.
Q-Ball
11:59
Apparently, Braves like Jorge Soler, and Cubs like Shelby Miller. How much of a gap is there in value there, in your opinion?
Dave Cameron
11:59
It's a fascinating rumor. I plan to write about it tomorrow, but I think I'd do that if I was the Cubs.
Zonk
12:00
Does the Price signing make it all the more likely the Cardinals will retain Jason Heyward?
Dave Cameron
12:01
I think so. They reportedly offered something like $180M, so they clearly have that kind of money available. Even if they preferred Price to Heyward, I think they probably see Heyward as the most reasonable alternative to signing Price.
Bork
12:02
With the Jays not signing Price, and their rotation almost set (albeit not flashy), do you think they'll open the coffers for Chris Davis? He'd be a perfect fit.
Dave Cameron
12:03
I don't think so. I don't get the sense that they're going to sign a big FA this winter.
Q-Ball
12:03
Nice job guessing Price's contract! Where do you think Cueto and Shark are going to land now in terms of years/dollars?
Dave Cameron
12:04
I think Cueto turning down 6/$120M shows he's confident that he can get a seventh year. I'll stick with my 7/$140M guess, though it might end up as an option with a big buyout or something. Samardzija, I still think $80M, somewhere in there, probably for five years.
OaktownSteve
12:05
Where are the Twins going to play Byung Ho Park?
Dave Cameron
12:05
DH
Saul A
12:05
Would the Giants be the favorites in the NL West if they land Greinke ?
Dave Cameron
12:05
No, the Dodgers would just go sign someone else really good -- maybe Heyward -- with the money they would have given Greinke.
Alex
12:06
Odds that Bryce Harper/Boras manage to get a $500 million deal when he hits free agency?
Dave Cameron
12:06
Very likely.
Bon Loblaw
12:06
When do you think Heyward signs? At the meetings? before? after?
Dave Cameron
12:07
After. I think he's probably looking at a mid-December signing.
Q-Ball
12:07
Are you going to be at the Winter Meetings? What does a baseball writer do there?
Dave Cameron
12:07
I am. Mostly, we socialize and wait for stuff to happen. If you're going to be in Nashville and want to say hi, hit me up on Twitter.
Matt
12:08
Who trades for Cargo? Cleveland?
Dave Cameron
12:08
I've been saying Anaheim forever, but I don't know what they have left to trade at this point. But maybe they'll take Reyes' deal too and just make it a salary dump.
Zonk
12:08
If Jon Lester were a free agent today, do you think he would get more than the 5/125 left on his deal? Does this deal look better after the Price signing?
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