JotCast | Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat

Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat

Dave Cameron

12:02

Happy Wednesday, everyone. This is my final chat of 2016, as I'm traveling back east for Christmas, so let's have a fun send off to a pretty lousy year.

12:03

But a lousy year that gave us a fun postseason, at least.

Brendon

12:03

How do player options work? Can a minor league player only be sent up and down so many times?

Dave Cameron

12:04

They really should just call them option years. A player can be optioned within a season as many times as the team wants, but they can only be optioned to the minors, without their consent, in three different years. There's an exception that can get you a fourth option year, but it's fairly rare.

Erik

12:04

What is the point of giving up any assets at all for Clay Bucholz? Does this indicate the Phillies don't trust Thompson/Eflin/Appel? For a team at their stage of a rebuild, shouldn't they be giving innings to prospects on the cusp on the big leagues, even if those prospects struggle?

Dave Cameron

12:06

MLB has mad it more difficult to turn current dollars into future value, so now large revenue teams like PHI can do that by taking on contracts that other teams don't want, then hoping their value goes up and trading them for prospects later. If Buchholz has a decent half season in Philly, he'll be traded to a contender in July, and the team will either have spent $7 million to acquire whatever prospects they can get for Buchholz then, or they can pay down the remainder of his contract and buy even better prospects for $10 million or whatever.

12:07

There's no real value in rushing guys to the big leagues that aren't ready.

Otis Redding

12:07

Are you a Keon Broxton fan? Can he cut down on his K%, and improve his .AVG?

Dave Cameron

12:07

Improving a K% is difficult, but I like Broxton even with the whiffs. He's a legit center fielder with some power, so even with the strikeouts, there's a chance for him to be a poor man's Carlos Gomez.

Vicente

12:08

What kind of prospects Pirates have to offer to get Quintana?

Dave Cameron

12:08

Would imagine Chicago would want some kind of package built around two of Meadows, Bell, or Glasnow, with some other stuff involved.

Tom

12:08

Do the Indians make a trade or sign a bat? Napoli was strong through August but fell apart. It seems he took pressure off of Santana in the line-up. Or do they just hope for the best with what they have?

Dave Cameron

12:08

Have to think they'll end up with one of the free agent RH 1B/DH types.

Elf on his lunch break

12:09

Hi Dave. I liked your article questioning whether or not the Astros really need Jose Quintana. I had a question about your conclusion that they'd be better off trying to find an every day left fielder. Where do you think they could find one? There don't seem to be that many 'good' free agent left fielders on the market, so would they try to trade, or hope that their current left fielders work out until one of their minor league prospects (Derek Fisher, perhaps) gets called up?

Dave Cameron

12:09

The piece was running long so I didn't get into speculation mode, but I had a few hundred words ready to go on why they should be the team to sign Jose Bautista. You can hide the arm problem in LF, and he's still decent enough out there to play the field more than Beltran, though those two could share LF/DH to keep both healthy.

12:10

How much do you consider guys like Chapman and Jansen to be worth per year?

Dave Cameron

12:10

Right around where they got paid. They basically got slightly-above-average-regular contracts, which values them at +2 to +2.5 WAR.

12:11

When healthy, that's what they're worth, plus they have a ton of postseason value.

Wes

12:11

Who ends up playing 3B for the Red Sox? Does Jantzen Witte have a chance?

Dave Cameron

12:12

I wouldn't be surprised if they made a trade for a RH guy to push Sandoval or potentially platoon with Moreland if Pablo takes the job and runs with it.

Mike

12:12

Is DeLeon and Calhoun enough for the Dodgers to get Dozier in a trade?

Dave Cameron

12:12

If I was the Twins, I would have said yes to that already.

Lurch

12:13

In last night's chat, Paul said that he couldn't see how you could pick the Rays to finish among the top three teams in their division, yet Fangraphs' Steamer-based projections have the Rays finishing at 82-20, tied for third in the AL East. What am I missing? The Rays seem to have a pretty legitimate chance at a wildcard, don't they?

Dave Cameron

12:13

Yeah, I think the Rays are basically just as good as the Blue Jays at this point.

I'd go BOS-gap-NYY-gap-TOR/TB/BAL as my AL East rankings at the moment.

Jay

12:13

Edwin Diaz and Dan Vogelbach for Gio Gonzalez. Who says no?

Dave Cameron

12:14

The Mariners wouldn't even consider it.

baba booey to you all

12:14

Do you subscribe to the "prospects are overrated" view? In general, I don't, but I'm in intrigued by the idea. Those big trades look great from ChiSox view, but can be justified by RedSox and Nats if you feel that unproven prospects are worth less than proven major leaguer. It certainly seems to be Dombrowski's view, but I don't think Rizzo buys into that.

Dave Cameron

12:15

I think the "prospects are overrated" mantra is based on a lack of willingness to admit that all players, including "proven big leaguers", have a lot of risk when it comes to future performance.

The idea that Chris Sale is risk free is insane.

Monsignor Martinez

12:15

Do you think that there will be at least one close division race in 2017?

Dave Cameron

12:16

Yep. It won't take more than a significant injury or two to change the course of what the forecasts currently see.

Toki

12:16

Thoughts on Tyson Ross' destination? Sounds like 20 teams or so have at least checked in on him. What are your top 3 suitors for his services.

Dave Cameron

12:18

Cubs, Yankees, Royals. The Cubs make the most sense if he wants to win, the Royals could give him a lot of defensive support, and the Yankees have money to throw around.

Zach

12:18

Would you be worried about Quintana in Yankee Stadium? Fly ball pitchers are scary there, but he's been fine with homers allowed in US Cellular, which is probably just as bad.

Dave Cameron

12:18

He's not really a fly ball pitcher.

Pearced

12:18

The Mets are rumoured to be looking for a CFer. Couldn't they just go with Conforto/Lagares and dump Bruce for free?

Dave Cameron

12:18

Conforto isn't a CF.

PieTraynee

12:19

What do you make of the news that the Pirate's have targeted Quintana? What sort of package do you think they should be willing to part with?