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Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat
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Dave Cameron
12:02
Happy final Wednesday of the regular season, everyone.
Next week, we'll have one Wild Card game in the books and another to look forward to.
So, let's chat postseason, awards, off-season stuff, or anything else baseball related.
The Average Sports Fan
12:03
If the Yankees end up in the Wildcard game should they just bullpen it?
Dave Cameron
12:04
Girardi said yesterday he won't do it. That said, it would be interesting if he just ran Severino for 3-4 innings, thus potentially saving him for a Game 2 ALDS start. With Green able to bridge the gap to the late relievers, it's worth doing.
But my guess is he'll just go conservative and let Severino go until he gets in trouble.
Ryan
12:04
Do you think Ryu as a starter and Alex Wood in the bullpen during the playoffs is a good choice?
Dave Cameron
12:04
Probably. Right now, I don't think LA can trust Wood in the rotation.
Andrew
12:05
Not asking if you think it *should*, but do you think the fact the Kluber has already won a CYA and Sale hasn't *will* play into who voters cast their vote for?
Dave Cameron
12:05
No. I think Sale sealed his fate last night giving up four homers.
Kluber's going to win it easily.
ATCQ
12:05
Hi Dave.  What do you think about Travis's view - that Judge's MVP case suffers by his lack of clutch?  How might the answer to that help determine the AL Cy Young award?
Dave Cameron
12:07
When I've had an MVP vote, I absolutely took context into account. If you distribute all of your home runs to bases loaded situations, that is absolutely more valuable than if you only hit them with the bases empty. Given that there's not a clear difference between Altuve and Judge in context-neutral performance, I think the context-specific gap gives the edge to Altuve.
TJ
12:07
If the Yankees advance, their top 3 starters are Severino, Gray and CC, right?  Montgomery is more trustworthy than Tanaka at this point. Do we have any idea what Tanaka would look like out of the pen? Would velo increase?
Dave Cameron
12:07
I'd probably be fine starting Tanaka and just letting him get through the order 1-2 times. He really falls apart once guys get multiple looks at him, and with their bullpen, Girardi doesn't need to let that happen.
IsBrittonInYet
12:08
Hi Dave. If Josh Donaldson has a healthy Josh Donaldson type year next year (7 or 8 WAR, 150ish wRC+, etc.), what does his FA deal look like? And if you're him, what extension offer from the Jays would you consider this winter?
Dave Cameron
12:08
If he continues to be an elite player and shows he's over his leg issues, I'd guess something like 6 years at $35m apiece.
12:09
Given where TOR is heading, unless he just really likes it there and doesn't care about winning during his decline years, I wouldn't re-sign.
J
12:10
Judge has been rated poorly by clutch and has fared much worse against what baseball reference calls power pitchers (highest K+BB combo).  Is this something that teams will try to exploit in the postseason or not enough to go by?
Dave Cameron
12:10
Generally that stuff isn't predictive.
Ben
12:10
On opening day, if I had told you that Twins would make postseason, Brewers would finish 10 over .500, Mets 20+ under .500, Giants worst record in baseball, and that neither the Padres or White Sox would be in last place, which would have shocked you most?
Dave Cameron
12:10
Probably the Twins making the postseason.
Billy
12:11
Will you split player stat lines by team when they're traded mid season? Or at least add it to the splits page?
Dave Cameron
12:11
This already exists.
Just click "partial seasons"
Doug
12:11
I've been driving the Byron Buxton hype bus for 3 years now. With all of his skills would you say he is a top 5 overall player in 5 years or have I drunk too much of the kool-aid?
Dave Cameron
12:12
I still don't really buy the bat.
He's a great defender, but I think a league average wRC+ is a success for him.
Elite D with average offense is still really valuable, but not elite.
WillC468
12:12
How does Fangraphs define "high leverage situation?"
Dave Cameron
12:13
Leverage Index of greater than 2.0
Bill
12:13
It's the NL wildcard game and ARZ holds a 1-run lead going into the bottom of the 9th, with the heart of COL (or MIL or STL) order due. Do you give the ball to Fernando Rodney with the season on the line?
Dave Cameron
12:13
Nope. Archie Bradley would be on the mound for me.
David
12:14
How would you rank the top five players in baseball going forward, not considering salary and contract situations?
Dave Cameron
12:15
Trout, Harper, Bryant, Donaldson, Machado or Seager
Aaron (UK)
12:15
It looks like the Astros might end up "choosing" the Red Sox as their playoff opponent by playing weakened lineups - or at the very least not starting their premium SPs against them.

Presumably MLB can't, won't, and shouldn't do anything?
Dave Cameron
12:16
Yeah, there's nothing to legislate here. You can't force a team to play certain players.
Sale Away
12:16
Wouldn't it be reasonable to vote for MVP based on Team Wins - WPA - (factors ignored by WPA)? Sale's contribution takes the Sox from Division Winners to Wild Card, a big step, making him a clear winner.
Dave Cameron
12:16
No, because then all you're doing is awarding him for the performance of his teammates
botchatheny
12:16
the cards need some thump.  is donaldson thump-worthy?  what would it take to acquire?
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