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Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat
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Dave Cameron
12:02
Happy Wednesday, everyone.
12:03
Since it comes up from time to time, a book recommendation for others with toddlers: Ella and Penguin is our current favorite book. Definitely worth checking out. Dragons Love Tacos is a close second.
And on that note, let's talk some baseball!
Ned Yost
12:03
I understand the hype behind Ohtani. But let's be real: even the surest of sure things in baseball go bust. I haven't seen one person even suggest there is any possibility that he turns into merely, say, a number 4 starter rather than a franchise changing mega-star. Listen, there is nothing wrong with being a number 4 starter! Nothing! That's still a good outcome. But why does it seem like everyone has predetermined stardom for a kid who is coming off an injury riddled season in a completely different atmosphere in Japan?
Dave Cameron
12:04
Maybe we're reading different things, but I haven't seen anyone say there's no risk here. People are talking about him passing up a $200M contract if he were a free agent; $200M free agents still come with downside, as J.D. Martinez currently illustrates.
Of course there's a chance he's not as good as the hype. I think there's a real chance the two-way thing doesn't work and he's just a pitcher in a few years.
glt4dc
12:05
What would a Stanton trade to the Phillies look like where neither side hangs up?  Is there such a trade?
Dave Cameron
12:05
If I'm the Phillies, I'm not prematurely taking myself out of the Harper/Machado running, and I'm eyeing a pitch to Trout in a few years.
12:06
Trading for Stanton could screw all of that up. So they should just pass.
Drew
12:07
Two questions: (1) Is Jay Bruce a viable option for the Astros? (2) Read Heyman say that they could be in on Lucroy. If so, would that mean they see Gattis as full-time DH or expendable?
Dave Cameron
12:07
Bruce is a pretty decent fit for HOU, I think. Price will have to come way down though. The Lucroy rumor doesn't make much sense to me; effectively fills DH with another RH hitter, and not a great one. McCann more valuable as a C than a DH, so unless they have a trade for him lined up, I don't see the point.
Bubby Brewstaff
12:08
Hosmer will be valued at _____ WAR over the length of his contract
Dave Cameron
12:08
I'd guess ~10. I think he could have a few solid enough seasons, but end up totally worthless by the time it ends.
Murdoc
12:09
Marlins have been very transparent about slashing payroll. Does it hurt their negotiating power with other teams? Is the main incentive to be honest with the fan base?
Dave Cameron
12:09
Not really. As long as you have the threat of "if you don't trade for him, someone else will", the leverage of "I'll just keep him" doesn't matter much.
So you don't need the I'll just keep him leverage if you have multiple buyers.
Cliff
12:10
What is Profar worth, both on the field and as trade bait for the Rangers?
Dave Cameron
12:10
Not much, squared.
YDG
12:10
I know every team is theoretically in the discussion, but are their any teams you're comfortable giving a 0 - 1 % chance of signing Ohtani?
Dave Cameron
12:11
The Royals? I can't imagine him going to middle America to play for a team that is going to be bad for a while.
J
12:11
I still don't understand how Wade Davis is going to get a higher contract than a guy that was just a 5 win SS or how he's even a better FA than Morrow.
Dave Cameron
12:11
You seem to be weighting 2017 performance a wee bit too heavily...
Mike
12:11
If the Cardinals were to acquire Stanton, how close would that put them to the Dodgers/Nats/Cubs tier?
Dave Cameron
12:12
Depends what they give up. If they have to subtract from the MLB roster, not that close.
Brian
12:12
Where does "the Mets are CONSIDERING pursuing Ohtani" rank among saddest baseball offseason rumors? Is there anything to consider?
Dave Cameron
12:13
Any team that doesn't have, at minimum, an intern putting together a powerpoint to send to the agent just in case should be embarrassed.
It's a free lottery ticket.
All 30 teams should make a bare minimum "we're interested if you are!" pitch
IsBrittonInYet
12:13
Hi Dave. When evaluating outfield defense, how much stock do you put in Statcast's numbers (ex. outs above average, number of 5 star catches) compared to DRS/UZR? Kevin Pillar had a DRS/UZR of 15/6 in 2017 but was -2 outs above average with no 5 star catches in 34 chances.
Dave Cameron
12:15
It's not about "stock"; it's about what the information is telling you. So, for instance, Pillar's value could come from positioning, which would mean that he doesn't make as many plays where he has to run a long way in a short amount of time, but he's still catching balls other worse-positioned CFs wouldn't get to.
Also, it's important to keep in mind that Statcast is just measuring range right now, so you don't want to compare that measure to total DRS/UZR, which include errors and throwing arm.
12:16
If you just look at the range portion of UZR, Pillar is at +1; his +6 came from throwing and not making many errors.
Bebop
12:17
if you were the Cubs, UNLESS you were completely blown away, wouldn't it make more sense to hold onto Russell, Baez, Happ and Almora? what are the odds of all four of them staying healthy, plus with the aging Zobrist and uninspiring work of Heyward, wouldn't it be turning a plus (depth) unto a huge deficit?
Dave Cameron
12:18
Hanging on to them all increases your chances of winning 85-90 games, but probably doesn't maximize your chances of winning 90+. The Cubs are in a position where they probably need to take some risks, and thinning out depth to improve the frontline group is a risk worth taking.
TKDC
12:18
If the Braves were to trade for Donaldson, sign Cobb, and dump Kemp for Acuna, would they be playoff contenders?
Dave Cameron
12:18
That's probably, what, a 10 win improvement? We have them as a 75-ish win team right now, so sure, they'd be in the second wild card spot.
12:19
But you don't get Donaldson for free.
dominik
12:19
regarding Otani: there is a lot of talks about him fitting with the cubs or dodgers but while that is true both teams are in the penalty box and can't exceed 300K. now otani probably prioritizes other things but will he be OK with only making 800K the first year and 500K the next 2? that combined is less than he makes in one year in japan. aren't those teams who have money having a big edge?
Dave Cameron
12:20
By "have money", you're talking about up to $3.5 million for the bonus, and everyone's salary will be the same. So would Otani pick his final destination over a $3.2M difference in up front payment when he's walking away from hundreds of millions in guaranteed money by coming over now?
Nelson
12:20
Would "record in close games" be a suitable way to vote for manager fo the year?
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