JotCast | FanGraphs After Dark Chat - 12/15/15

FanGraphs After Dark Chat - 12/15/15

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Paul Swydan

9:00

Hi everybody! OK, let's do this!

Jeff Zimmerman

9:00

Hi

Billy Corman

9:00

There is a lot of substance behind the splash the Cubs have made this offseason. Cardinals seem to be missing out (I wouldn't say they're missing Cueto, Bob. *laughs*). All I read was the new TV contract money and $200mm for Heyward. Who's the dance partner they take to the playoffs, Chris Davis?

Jeff Zimmerman

9:01

I think they will end up with one of Gordon, Cespedes or Upton

9:02

Which show should Jeff watch next?

Hell on Wheels (32.1% | 9 votes)

Veep (67.9% | 19 votes)

Total Votes: 28

Paul Swydan

9:02

Here's the thing. They don't NEED any one player. But I think they'd be wise to keep upgrading their bullpen.

VEEP!

The Mrs. has gotten me into VEEP recently, it is funny in that way that the Office was funny. Except about politicians instead of paper.

Also, no confessionals.

James

9:02

Has Szymborski crushed Cistulli yet?

Paul Swydan

9:03

I end every night with a prayer to this effect. Cistulli is like a kitten, he's fluffy and he has nine lives.

Jeff Zimmerman

9:03

We could only be so lucky

Mike

9:04

Now that Heyward is off the market, who's next to sign out of Upton and Cespedes?

Jeff Zimmerman

9:04

Gordon

Paul Swydan

9:05

I tend to agree with Jeff re: Gordon, just because he's had the most smoke. But I could see Cespedes deciding quickly as well, so of the two you listed I'll say him.

Jorge Soler

9:05

Where do I play next year?

Paul Swydan

9:05

Whoa, in a ballpark, I hope!

Jeff Zimmerman

9:05

Outfield, the results could be rough

Paul Swydan

9:05

In all honesty, I just don't buy the Cubs trading him.

Vic Romano

9:06

Over/Under - Cubs win 100 games in 2016.

Paul Swydan

9:06

I'll take the under, only because betting on teams to win 100 games generally doesn't work out well (see Nationals, 2015).

Jeff Zimmerman

9:06

Under. Not all the rookies will improve.

Jon

9:06

The Cubs have collected a large group of 'Clayton Richard's, middle relief guys that are somewhat effective the first time through the lineup, possibly with the hope of limiting their rotation (3-5) to two times through the lineup. Is this strategy better than just signing a Cueto-level starter (not that they were trying to)?

Paul Swydan

9:07

No, but like you said it wasn't an either/or thing. I think signing Lackey plus a few of those guys is just fine.

The Dude

9:07

Theory: Kiley McDaniel is the reason the Braves are interested in Soler. The Braves are reportedly "smitten with him," via Jerry Crasnick. Kiley ranked him as the 13th best prospect in MLB before the 2015 season. In a chat in July, when Soler was absolutely awful, Kiley remained bullish of him. In the midseason prospect update in August, as a graduated prospect, Kiley gave him a 60 FV. It seems like every Cubs/Braves rumor on MLBTR over the past month regarding Miller, Teheran, or Inciarte has been centered around Soler, unlike the persistent rumors with the Rays and Indians, who seem to covet Baez. Thoughts? On a related note, now that my finals are over, I have so much free time on my hand AND HAVE NO IDEA WHAT TO DO WITH IT.

Jeff Zimmerman

9:08

They may not done yet and Baez could be traded

Paul Swydan

9:08

I think it will be very tempting to go back through Kiley's content from last year and ascribe that he is the reason the Braves are hot after people he liked, but I think that does a disservice to the rest of their front office, who were in full rebuild mode before Kiley joined them.

cody k

9:08

What side would need to add something to Trout for Bryant, Soler, and Hammel to make it an even trade (Cubs?)? How much?

Jeff Zimmerman

9:08

Rumors are rumors. Let me know when a move is made.

Paul Swydan

9:09

Cubs. At least a pitching prospect or two. Maybe more. It's an interesting thing to think about though.

Jeff Zimmerman

9:09

Schwarber at least for the Cubs

The Dude

9:09

Paul, who would you say is the best full-time writer on Fangraphs? How about the worst?

Paul Swydan

9:10

I'm probably the worst. As far as best goes, it depends on what kind of writing you're looking for.

Jeff Zimmerman

9:10

Why did you select that one Paul? It is all yours.

Paul Swydan

9:10

Hahaha, Jeff's not touching it.

anon

9:11

How important is the handedness of the lineup? Specifically, right now the cubs have 1S (zobrist), 3 R (Bryant, soler, Russell), 4L (Heyward, Schwarber, Rizzo, Montero) penciled in the lineup, but if they swap Soler for Inciarte/Span etc, it becomes 2 R, 5L. Is that a concern?

Paul Swydan

9:11

No, I don't think it's a major concern. You worry about batter handedness after defensive fit IMO.

Jeff Zimmerman

9:12

It all depends on if the players have larger than normal platoon splits.

anon

9:12

Are the Yankees gonna do anything significant, or twiddle their thumbs all offseason?

Jeff Zimmerman

9:13

I think they will make some minor moves.

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Connecting…

Roberto

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11:04

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The primary Pirates first baseman on opening day will be -------.

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The Dude

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11:31

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How weird is it that Steamer projects Kris Bryant to have an identical wOBA and wRC+ in 2016 as he had in 2015?

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The Dude

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11:34

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Anyone else really pumped to see The Hateful Eight? Just got the tickets to see it opening day in glorious 70MM!

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JR

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11:35

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It's dark. Let's start.

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The Dude

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11:36

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What would a Nolan Arenado extension look like?

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JR

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11:36

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What do think Swihart becomes? Is he a top 5 catcher?

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Wondering

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11:38

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What are the odds Soler is a Cub the whole year? Doesn't trading him for more pitching just create a hole in CF? It seems they could pick up some cheap pitching without trading him and then needing to trade for more OF help. Thanks.

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The Dude

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11:39

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How stiff a punishment do you think MLB should give to domestic abusers? It has to be more than the 50 games for marijuana, right?

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anon

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11:40

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There are a lot of top hitters still left on the market. Who signs first? Who is left standing? Will someone take a 1 yr contract and try again next year?

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anon

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11:42

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With Cueto gone, do the dodgers go after maeda? trade? Their rotation isn't good enough as is right?

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DS

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11:42

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Who among Gordon, Upton, and Cespedes would be the best fit for the Angels? Who among them are they likeliest to sign?

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bill

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11:43

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What do you think the Jays will do about resigning Encarnacion and/or Bautista?

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JR

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11:44

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Do you think Ryu will be ready to go at the beginning of the season?

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anon

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11:45

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Who was a bigger overpay: Kimbrel or Giles?

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Jim

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11:48

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Angels sign Chris Davis trade cron Santiago bedrosian for cargo or carrasco

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Chris S

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11:56

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Do you think the Nationals can move Papelbon?

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Chris S

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11:58

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Who do you think will be the left handed OF the nationals land?

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Todd

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12:02

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True or False - Tyson Ross will be traded before opening day. If true, where does he go and for what? (It's the Cubs, isn't it?)

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Mike D

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12:05

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It shouldn't take Soler to get Inciarte, let alone Soler +. Right?

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anon

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12:11

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When building a team from scratch, what are important qualities in hitters: high OBP, contact, power, defense, something else? Would focus on a couple of these areas or balance? What would you prioritize?

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Chris S

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12:13

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Who could be the left handed 2B the Nationals acquire? I was adamant Utley for a year would have been a decent option.

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Chris S

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12:14

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Where does Mike Leake end up?

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Chris S

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12:16

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Thanks ever so much for your time, do Tyson and Joe Ross have a chance to get the highest brotherly WAR?

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Vic

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12:17

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How confident are you in deGrom remaining a Top 10 SP going forward? Do you think last year will be his career season?

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pepper69fun

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12:17

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Teheran and Inciarte for Baez and Soler? Certainly today for Cubs, CF solved, rotation deepened, and players are cost controlled. Big upside bats for Braves. Fair? Who says no?

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Chris S

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12:18

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Do you follow the Australian Baseball League? If so anybody look major league quality? its had Kiermaier and Gregorius

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James

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12:20

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So the Rangers want to sign Beltre to an extension, how much is he worth? I feel at some point he needs to start declining.

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anon

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12:21

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Heyward contract details: $20M signing bonus fully payable if he opts out (or deferred) and a total of $78M first 3 years leaving $21.2M average over the last 5. Cubs pay huge upfront but if he is healthy, he leaves, and if he is injured then the back half is not as big a commitment. Sounds like a win-win. Am I understanding this right? Are there any negatives?

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anon

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12:23

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Will the extended nets make a difference in the game? Will there be a greater Home field advantage where ever there is a larger foul territory, as the players wont be able to dive into the stands any more?

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Chris

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12:25

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After all the deadline deals the Jays made in 2015, how weak is their prospect pool now? Is there a possibility that they trade Bautista and Encarnacion this season to replenish the system?

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Ryan

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12:40

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Everyone's talking about what the Cubs will trade for next, and I'm just sitting here hoping they stand pat and don't somehow mess it up. The team is going to be great next year.

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Trystan

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12:52

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I pitch for my weekend league and find my change gets hit by opposite handers more and my slider by same handers more, are there any pitchers in the MLB who have this happen? it seems to buck the stereotypes

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Trystan

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1:00

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Begin.

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Kris

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1:09

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How much will the Rangers be improved from having Hamels, M. Perez, Holland, Dyson, Diekman, Wilhelmsen, and J. Hamilton for an entire season and Darvish for most of it?

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anon

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1:10

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How many years till the next MLB expansion? Will there be a MLB team in Puerto rico or mexico in the next 20 years?

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Kris

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1:11

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With Gallo, Brinson, Mazara, Ortiz, Tate, etc. where would the Rangers' farm system rank?

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Edge O

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1:20

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The Braves signed Beckham and Bonifacio. Obvious rebuild going on. Is there really that little faith in Jace? Doesn't the kid deserve every opportunity? What do you expect from him.

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Merv Throneberry

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1:21

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Is Melancon out the door in a sell high trade? He was arguably the best closer of 2015 and yet, Merv has been hearing this a lot...

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Merv Throneberry

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1:22

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Might Yelich break out this year, or break up with the Marlins?

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JR

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1:24

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If McGee and Boxberger remain in TB, who do you think closes?

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Chipmunknunchuks

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1:28

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If Johnny Cueto opts out after 2 yrs of his deal w/ the Giants, can the Giants still offer him the one yr deal amount -- thereby securing draft pick compensation if he signs elsewhere? Or would the draft pick comp be nullified by the opt-out clause?

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Chipmunknunchuks

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1:39

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Who is your pick for the best RHanded hitting OF platoon (non full-time) player still out on the market?

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Brian

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1:39

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Are the Cubs nervous about Arrieta being over worked last year?

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JR

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1:42

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Which rebuilding team do you think could be a surprise this season?

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Brian

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1:43

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David Ross was terrible last year. Tell me the Cubs have a plan to address this.

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Jordan

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1:44

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As a Jays fan, I'm starting to get the feeling that we may be heading towards a "premature" rebuild , I started thinking about it and the guy we know the names they wanted, Duquette, Kenny Williams & of course Shapiro, these are all mid to low budget payrolls. Am I reading this wrong?

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Jordan

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1:46

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I feel like if the Jays aren't heading towards the rebuild I think they are, they should go after Votto, and next year let Bautista & Dickey walk while hopefully reinvesting in a starting pitcher, is that too much of a fantasy idea?

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Matt

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1:48

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Challenge trade... Teheran and Inciarte for Schwarber. Who says no?

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Matt

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1:49

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Does Soler, Contreras, and Pierce Johnson for Inciarte and Vizcaino work for both teams?

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The Dude

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1:51

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Could one make an argument that Pete Rose's life is like a Shakespearian tragedy? He was a "nobleman" of baseball, (wealth, achievements, influence, etc.) whose tragic flaw (gambling/addictive personality) leads to his fall from grace, his life falling into utter chaos. The only aspect seemingly missing is his death (which, given his age, is not that far on the horizon).

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hanna ny

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1:57

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Does fangraphs have access to the Statcast data? If you do have access to it how would you use it to update your stats?

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Edge O

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1:57

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White Sox aren't selling on Abreu or Sale yet Brett Lawrie and a couple of Cs who aren't clear upgrades are their only moves so far. Who should t hey be adding. As is, does Thompson or Garcia start in RF

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hanna ny

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1:58

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What secret weapon does Brian Cashman have under his sleeve?

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hayden

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1:58

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where would a) benefit most from yoenis and b) benefit yoenis most?

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hanna ny

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1:59

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How could I find a summer internship for a site like this one?

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Pat

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1:59

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Does Brett Gardner get traded?

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Pat

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2:00

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Thoughts on Aaron Hicks numbers if he gets 500 PAs

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Christian

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2:00

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Would you rather have Shelby Miller or Taijuan Walker?

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Seth

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2:00

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Best chance of breaking out in a dynasty league? Wil Myers, Steven Souza or Marcell Ozuna.

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hanna ny

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2:01

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How can a projection system "like" or "dislike" a player? If there is a year where a system projects worse for a player does it even out over the course of many years?

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Paul

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2:01

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What are your feelings on Billy Beane? I've liked his trades in the past, but the Samardzija, Donaldson, and recent Lawrie trade don't seem very good to me. Are the GM's of the Astros, Rays, and Cubs now considered better?

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Pat

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2:02

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are people overreacting to the loss of Justin Wilson? Don't the Yankees still have a top four bullpen?

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The Dude

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2:02

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OK, for anyone else watching the GOP debate, I'm confused what the US-Mexican border has to do with ISIS?

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hanna ny

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2:02

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Hi, do you look at the questions built up in the queue or should I resend them?

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Pat

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2:03

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16 team league what pick would be ideal to get most value out of the first 4 rounds?

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hanna

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2:04

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WIll Chris Davis get his asking price?

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bookbook

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2:06

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Best baseball player on the stage right now? Chris Christie might make a good catcher. Rand Paul in left field?

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hanna

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2:06

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Can heyward play center? Is that what the cubs have in mind for him?

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Sean P!

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2:08

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What sort of WAR do you see Addison Russell putting up this year? How about in his prime?

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John

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2:10

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Do you think the White Sox acquire one of Cespedes or Frazier? Possibly Both?

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Ryan

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2:11

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The depth charts currently have the Reds as better than the Royals, Twins, Tigers, and Diamondbacks. If they were in any division but the NL central, would there be a case for making one last go at contention in 2016?

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Doctor Doom

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2:12

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Should teams interested in Todd Frazier be concerned about his 2nd half numbers? I know you've written before that whole season metrics are generally more predictive than 1st half/2nd half. But the drop in BB% and rise in K% seem troubling.

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Roger

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2:13

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Which team should trade for Todd Frazier? And what is the highest-ranked prospect the Reds could expect in return (e.g., top-25 in MLB, top-50, top-100)?

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Go Royals

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2:13

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How many games will the Washington Nationals win in 2016?

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John

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2:14

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With Sale, Rodon, Quintana and Montas/Fulmer...Can the sox possibly have a top 5 rotation in a few years?

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Ryan

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2:14

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Do you think we will start to see opt-out gamesmanship in coming years? For example, David Price might plan to exercise his opt-out, but then ultimately think better of it when Kershaw and Greinke exercise theirs and make the FA market that much more pitching-saturated?

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Guest

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2:14

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I was thinking about a trade centered around Bregman and Ross. Seems like a good basis for a trade, doesn't it?

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Hanna

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2:15

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This newer chat system is slow on chromw

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Ryan

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2:15

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I gotta say, jotcast is infinity times better for mobile than old CiL

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Ryan

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2:16

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Cueto for the next two years: 390 innings, 2.70 ERA, 3.80 xFIP. Reasonable?

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The Dude

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2:16

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Do you think the A's front office needs some new blood? I get that no one has any idea what Beane is ever doing, but most of the FA signings this offseason seem questionable.

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Hanna

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2:17

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Cashman has been pretty successful in achieving his goals for the offseason. I never thought that the entire middle relief corps would be gone though...

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Eric

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2:18

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What do you expect out of Carlos Gomez next year?

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Doctor Doom

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2:18

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If you're the GM in CLE and you absolutely HAVE to trade away one of Kluber, Carrasco or Salazar, who do you trade and why?

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The Dude

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2:18

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Do you think Cueto will be able to continue to induce soft contact, or will he finally fall victim to his peripherals?

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Hanna

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2:18

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Is Jacob lindgren going to contribute to the big league club this year? He seems to be the left cash is relying on

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zak

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2:21

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where does Maeda end up?

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Minty

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2:24

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I meant do you like Giolito or Urias more?

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The Dude

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2:26

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Does WAR undervalue SP who are able to eat a lot of innings with league average results? Considering how fragile pitchers are, should there be extra value per inning of pitchers with say, 200+ innings?

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Jim

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2:26

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Do a projections "like" a player one year then turn it around and regress to a mean the next?

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The Dude

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2:27

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Happy Birthday Trystan!

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Minty

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2:27

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Realistically, next year's rookie class won't be nearly as good as this historic one. Who are you excited to see debut?

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Seth

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2:27

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who do you see the dodgers getting this offseason for the rotation, bullpen and/or another bat in the lineup?

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Mike

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2:27

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Do you think the A's sign another free agent starter and if so, which one.

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Jed Hoyer

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2:28

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Theo tasked me with working the phones on this, so are there any young CF's out there that could be had for the price of 1 Jason Hammel?

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Mark

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2:29

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How do you feel about Trea Turner for the upcoming year? He's clearly been given the keys to SS.

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Nick Swisher

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2:29

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Does my dazzling smile get any teams to sign me or is my career over?

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The Dude

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2:30

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Which team's rebuilding process do you like more: Phillies or Braves?

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Josh

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2:30

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Any chance the Cubs could deal for Jackie Bradley Jr. ? What would Boston need in return to entertain such an idea?

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Dr Evil

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2:30

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Chances Oberholtzer and Velasquez alone provide more value than Giles? (this year and going forward)

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