JotCast | FanGraphs After Dark Chat

Paul Swydan

9:01

Hi everybody!

Why are there no polls?

Paul forgot (15.2% | 5 votes)

Paul hates you (21.2% | 7 votes)

Paul loves you (6.1% | 2 votes)

This is actually a poll, stupid (57.6% | 19 votes)

Total Votes: 33

Daniel Carroll

9:01

The visitors score three in the first, and as we go to the bottom of the first, the visitors are approximately 80% likely to win by Win Probability, but a portion of that 80% includes situations where the home team hits a grand slam in the 6th and the visitors still come back to win. Is there any way to tell what the probability is that the visitors will never relinquish the lead?

Paul Swydan

9:02

Wow, uh, probably, but I'm not sure that I'm the person equipped to tackle that equation. Jeff?

Jeff Zimmerman

9:03

Not sure, doing 2 runs is somewhat easy

Ray

9:04

Peralta or Didi ROS?

Paul Swydan

9:04

Survey says it's a wash - http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=rfangraphsdc&team=0&lg=all&players=l28959

Jeff Zimmerman

9:05

Close .... Didi. If it really matters look at strength of schedule

Paul Swydan

9:05

At this point, oddly, I'd go with Didi, because I can count on Didi playing, whereas Matheny seems to have a new idea about his infield every other week. You know, because Matheny is a moron.

Patrick

9:05

Drew Pomeranz - where has his cutter gone? I'm a Red Sox fan and heard a lot about his new third pitch he added in SD, and I've barely seen it in Boston.

Paul Swydan

9:06

Where have all the cutters gonnnnnnnnnneeeeeeeeeee?

Jeff Zimmerman

9:07

Pitch fx has him only throwing 64 all season to start with, so it wasn't a major pitch for him any way

Paul Swydan

9:07

Not sure, to be honest. The key is that he's pitching better.

Art Vandelay

9:07

Dansby Swanson being called up already? I get that he's got pedigree but he's not exactly raking in AA at age 22.

Jeff Zimmerman

9:07

His regular fastballs had a higher swgStr%

Paul Swydan

9:08

Counterarguments - 1. He could be getting bored, and might need the challenge. 2. There's no reason not to, if the Braves believe he's the future.

carrotjuice

9:09

Why aren't there NERD scores anymore? I WANT NERD SCORES!

Paul Swydan

9:09

Calm down, Carson is just on vacation. They'll re-appear soon.

Patrick

9:09

Do you see Blake Swihart as the 2017 Red Sox everyday catcher, or Dombrowski selling low on him this winter?

Jeff Zimmerman

9:09

Give the nerd, Carson, a break

Paul Swydan

9:09

If you're asking me to pick, I'll say the latter, but I think he'll probably end up back in Triple-A again.

Jeff Zimmerman

9:10

No on Swihart, Isn't he out this year. I think they will get a verteran framer

Tom

9:10

Team(s) with best 2019 outlook?

Jeff Zimmerman

9:10

Cubs

Red Sox

9:11

The Indians ... maybe. Not sure on their pitchers' contracts

Paul Swydan

9:11

Cubs, Dodgers, Red Sox, Braves, Yankees, Phillies, Rockies, Brewers, come to mind.

And then St. Louis and San Fran also always find a way to be good.

Jeff Zimmerman

9:11

Phillies because they are about to reload

Mike

9:12

What should the mets do with conforto? Play him until he adjusts?

Jeff Zimmerman

9:12

Yes, yes, YES

Paul Swydan

9:12

Yes. He is an everyday player and he should be playing every day. That he hasn't been is quite a shame, and a big reason Collins needs to be fired.

Josh R.

9:13

Predict what happens next with the Dodgers starting rotation. Whatever was wrong with Maeda's arm finally flares up? Kershaw makes it to the 5th inning of a rehab start onlyu to take a liner off his face? Bus crash where only the pitchers all break their arms?

Paul Swydan

9:13

I think probably the bus crash. It'll probably look like this:

Jeff Zimmerman

9:14

They are a mess, but ask for it with the pitchers they signed

Murdoc

9:14

Who has the most work to do for 2017 and beyond: A's, Twins, Rays, or Angels?

Paul Swydan

9:14

Definitely the Angels.

Jeff Zimmerman

9:14

Angels by a long ways

Zonk

9:15

Death, Taxes, Robin Ventura getting fired. Are these 3 certainties in life?

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