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Fantasy Baseball Chat With Brad Johnson
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Brad Johnson
12:01
We'll get going here in a moment
First rounders
12:03
Which first rounders would you fade in a 5x5 roto, and why?
Brad Johnson
12:03
So we're talking the top 15 players or so
12:04
I think there's a case to be made to back off first round pitchers this year
So Cole, Burnes, Buehler
I'm probably edgy about Ohtani in most formats
12:06
The reason I'm avoiding first round pitchers is because there's just so many good starters this year compared to recent seasons. Like you can go about 40 deep before you start incorporating wishcasting and growth narratives into why you like a guy.
At the same time, there's a bit of a cliff after Betts (14) and Devers (16) on the hitting side.
12:07
Now that we've talked about this, I'll try not to focus much on early picks for the rest of the chat. We tend to over-litigate the first few picks when it's those later choices that truly matter.
Ro
12:07
Who's a great late round value?
Brad Johnson
12:08
Where do I even start. In part, it depends on the depth of your league. I play deeper formats so I immediately go to names like Nick Pratto and Juan Yepez.
12:10
A typical 12-team mixed league will roster around 300 players. Looking in that range, I like Andrew Kittredge, Brandon Nimmo, Kyle Lewis, Carlos Carrasco, Riley Greene (if you have ample bench), Vidal Brujan, Sixto Sanchez, Dinelson Lamet (I think he could close)
Could go another 50 names so I'll stop there.
Ro
12:10
Aside from Soto, do any Nats have any fantasy value?
Brad Johnson
12:10
Absolutely
They're not a truly terrible team despite a rough 2021.
12:11
Josh Bell is the obvious one. He'll bat cleanup and contribute in 3-4 categories
Lane Thomas might have some OBP chops. I'm not too hopeful, but he flashed the skills last year. Keibert Ruiz could be a top 12 catcher.
12:12
Cesar Hernandez is currently penciled in as the second hitter. He's usually a solid roster plug while you deal with an injured 2B.
Maybe you picked Muncy and he's not quite OD ready.
Stanton H.
12:12
how Do you feel about Clevinger returning? Should he be targeted earlier than rounds 15-18
Brad Johnson
12:13
I think that's an appropriate value range in a 12-team format
12:14
You need to assess what your team needs at that stage. He has more potential to finish Top 10 than say Wainwright, Ryu, or Urquidy (some other pitchers in that same range), but you might want to take a shot at a different stat profile due to your earlier choices.
Bucky Duckin Fent
12:15
When is a good time to draft my favorite catcher Gary Sanchez?
Brad Johnson
12:15
You should be able to get him somewhere in the last few rounds of a 12-team mixed, 1 C league.
Maybe a little earlier in deeper formats.
Dave
12:16
Not to cross platforms or anything, but is there somewhere to find your presentation for PitchCon ("Casual DFS" or something like that, I believe)? It looked interesting, but I wasn't able to tune in live.  Any chance you make it available to Patreon subs?
Brad Johnson
12:17
Honestly, I just assumed it would be recorded or else I would have done so myself. Doing a briefer version is probably a good idea.
I had to draw it out a bit to fill my 50 minutes!
Dave
12:17
Where are you at on Bregman heading into the year? Potential huge bounceback b/c he was hurt... or potential huge bust because wrist injuries sap power?
Brad Johnson
12:19
I don't see a ton of upside outside of OBP formats. Though I do think his 90 ADP is more or less correct. The 41 HR from 2019 were always an aberration, but he has a shot at reaching 30 again with some help from his home park.
He very much needs those Minute Maid dimensions, his power is fringy
Rangers29
12:20
I was going to draft Josh Jung with my last pick hoping he’d be “lightning in a bottle” at some point when he got called up but with this reported labrum injury what top prospect would you take a gamble on?
Brad Johnson
12:21
So some guys in the same range as Jung on public lists are Corbin Carroll, Triston Casas, and Oneil Cruz. I'm a huge proponent on throwing a dart at Cruz.
There's upside for an infielding Aaron Judge in that profile.
12:22
I like Carroll's teammate Alek Thomas more for 2022 impact. And I kinda think Casas has his work cut out for him getting around Bobby Dalbec (who I like more than I probably should) and JDM.
12:23
I don't think you'll need to act on this last one immediately, but I'm expecting to see a lot of Bryson Stott in Philly this year.
tol3rd
12:23
will andrew vaughn bust out this year?
Brad Johnson
12:24
Yea, I'm eager to grab at least a few shares in my drafts. There's a lot to like about his hitting profile. I doubt we're talking about one of the best players in the league. Thinking more like 25 HR, solid run production, and a playable AVG.
Mad Max
12:25
Am I a gamble with my age and “dead arm”?
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