JotCast | Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 11/10/17

Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 11/10/17

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Bagel

10:30

How do you think the Astros should go about minimizing the injury risk their pitching staff has? Signing more depth, skipping starts?

Jeff Sullivan

10:31

DL manipulation and occasional stints in long relief. Figure Keuchel and Verlander stay in the rotation, but of guys like Peacock, Morton, McCullers, McHugh, Fiers, etc, you can shuffle them around so they're not starting every five days

Show Hey O’Tawny

10:32

Does Zack Cozart to the Pirates make sense? Or is Jordy Mercer a lot better than I give him credit for?

Jeff Sullivan

10:32

Pittsburgh feels like the kind of ballpark that might make Cozart look terrible

Cincinnati has the highest right-handed home-run factor. Pittsburgh is second-lowest. Cozart has that middling power that PNC could destroy

Sam

10:33

Prediction for most dissatisfied fan base in next year's fan experience poll?

Jeff Sullivan

10:33

Marlins or Rangers

Outta my way, Gyorkass

10:34

Steamer really hates the Brewers going into next season, especially the pitching. On one hand, I get why guys like Knebel (1.1 WAR), Hader (0.5 WAR), or Anderson (1.7 WAR) are getting low-ish projections - trying to remove recency bias and unsustainable outcomes, and all, but if you're a betting man, are you taking the over or under on those three guys? Hader's projections seems egregiously low to me, considering he'll be around for a full season, and *should* get a chance to start.

Jeff Sullivan

10:34

Yeah, I like the Brewers more. I might be wrong here but my gut feeling is that Steamer is unusually conservative

Carnot

10:34

Using bWAR, Jean Segura and Taijuan Walker were about equally valuable over 2017 (fWAR favors Segura by about half a win). Who would you rather have going forward? Forget Mitch Haniger exists.

Jeff Sullivan

10:34

I'd rather have the shortstop than the starting pitcher, just because of the risks

Peter

10:35

Curious, what’s your formal education math background?

Jeff Sullivan

10:35

Not high. Basic stats and some years of calculus. Did math as part of the chemistry program but I am not a skilled mathematician

Which is why I still cling desperately to basic linear regression techniques

John Jaso Jingle Heimer Schmidt

10:36

Could someone fix Billy Hamilton's offensive struggles? Or is he always going to be a glove/speed first type guy?

Jeff Sullivan

10:36

He just can't hit the ball hard

Doesn't have it in him

So he'll never walk too much because pitchers won't be afraid to throw fastballs for strikes

10:37

You'd like to see him make some more contact and shorten up his swing but he doesn't have Ichiro-style bat control so I doubt he's much better than an 80 wRC+ or whatever

Show Hey O’Tawny

10:37

How dumb are the Red Sox going to be this offseason? Dumb enough to give JD Martinez a huge contract and trade JBJ, or so titanically stupid that they give Eric Hosmer $100M?

Jeff Sullivan

10:37

$100 million isn't that much anymore

Eric Hosmer isn't bad

Connor

10:38

What's a realistic return for the Marlins if they trade Stanton to the Dodgers? Brock Stewart/Andrew Toles plus a couple of filler prospects?

Jeff Sullivan

10:38

I wonder if they might be able to get Joc

That would make it a little easier to digest

Show Hey O’Tawny

10:38

Why would you ever move away from San Diego

Jeff Sullivan

10:39

I like it here more than I liked it there

Les

10:39

Jeff, as a native San Diegan who slept in the parking lot to get tickets to the '98 World Series, I feel there's some glimmer of excitement for the future. Am I way off, or are the Padres a couple years away from contending again? Also, is it ridiculous for the President of the club to say anything less than a .500 record next season is unacceptable?

Jeff Sullivan

10:39

I think there's some comfort in having a team that completely leans into the rebuild process. It's always possible to have hope when your team is accumulating young talent that hasn't yet had to prove itself at the major-league level

10:40

I think the Padres have a very long way to go, but thanks to moves like the Kimbrel deal, they've basically undone a lot of the damage they did a few years ago when they tried to go in the other direction

Raindog

10:40

Dodgers, Red Sox, Cubs, Nats, Astros are all set on the left side of their infield. Tigers, White Sox not buying now. Who's gonna compete with the Yankees to give out megacontracts to Machado and Donaldson? Giants/Angels? Mets??

Jeff Sullivan

10:40

Cardinals

The Ghost of Wade Boggs

10:41

Do writers at Fangraphs ever pop into these chats just to see what's going on?

Jeff Sullivan

10:41

Probably, but that doesn't mean they leave questions in the queue

Dirty Sanchez

10:42

What's the latest on the potentially erupting volcano in Bali? I'm going there in March. I have a layover in Seoul. Wondering if I'm going to die in a nuclear blast or a volcanic one.

Jeff Sullivan

10:42