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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 2/24/17
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Jeff Sullivan
9:08
Hello friends
Welcome to Friday baseball chat
Bork
9:08
Hello, friend!
Jeff Sullivan
9:08
Hello friend
ChiSox2020
9:08
Is Boston's outfield going to be all time great on both sides of the ball?
Jeff Sullivan
9:10
Allow me to say this much --
Top projected outfields, this season:

1. Angels, 11.8 WAR
2. Red Sox, 11.1
3. Pirates, 9.8
4. Marlins, 9.6
5. Nationals, 8.1
9:11
I know what you're getting at, and obviously there's massive upside if you're a huge fan of Benintendi. And I'm a pretty big fan of Benintendi! But at this juncture the Red Sox might not even have the best outfield in baseball *this season*, so it's way too early to talk about history
Ross
9:11
What Mariner beats his projection by the most? Under performs the most?
Jeff Sullivan
9:11
Let me just look real fast...
9:12
I'll take the over on both Dyson and Haniger. Dyson because of his defense, Haniger because I buy him as an all-around asset today
9:13
Suppose I'll take the under on Smyly as a 3-win pitcher
Burrito
9:14
Hi Jeff, what numbers would you predict for Brandon Finnegan this season ? Thanks
Jeff Sullivan
9:15
I think Finnegan is going to establish himself as something like a legitimate No. 3; last year he got kind of screwed by his catchers, and he deserved a far more favorable strike zone than he got
Some of that was on his own command, but I like his pitch mix
libre
9:16
Where can I camp for PitchTalks tickets?
Jeff Sullivan
9:16
On the internet
Ross
9:16
Does your gut tell you the Mariners finally break their postseason drought or are we in for another year of heartbreak?
Jeff Sullivan
9:16
When it comes to the Mariners my gut is distinctly pessimistic
9:17
I absolutely buy them as a real wild-card contender. The problem is, there are like five of those teams, or something, and one injury could derail any one of them
Andy F
9:18
Any ideas to what degree teams use the WBC as an international scouting ground?
Jeff Sullivan
9:19
It's useful supplemental information, especially in the cases where teams are able to get pitches and batted balls tracked. But no team is going to reach a judgment based on WBC play alone
Nats
9:19
Would you be worried about the Nationals lineup going into the season? The first five seem fine, but Werth, Zimmerman, and Wieters/Norris seems to leave a big hole in the bottom half of the lineup. Is this issue largely overlooked due to questions at the back end of the bullpen?
Jeff Sullivan
9:19
First of all, the top five might be the best top five in the game. Harper/Rendon/Murphy/Eaton/Turner is absurd
9:20
Secondly, Wieters is fine, Werth is probably something like an average hitter, and Zimmerman still generated good exit velocities last season even when his numbers were in the toilet. I do agree that depth is a potential concern, but I think it's a bigger deal *after* you get past the starters
libre
9:21
Dave podcasts from his car, Sam podcasted from cricket-and-ant infested lands (his home I guess). Where do you call in for EW?
Jeff Sullivan
9:21
Same place I do everything else. This chair in this room in my own residence
Sometimes I don't know why I have a laptop since I pretty much never go anywhere with it
IWB
9:22
If Martin Perez’s 2017 plus 3 options were guaranteed, how many teams agree to take his guaranteed 4/27M contract?
Jeff Sullivan
9:23
Most of them. A few might have budget obstacles, but Perez is still fairly young, he just had his best fastball in a while, and that guarantee is awfully modest for a regular starter
9:24
To be sure, Perez is not very good. But he takes his turns, gets grounders, and throws enough strikes. Still some upside in there, and $7m a season isn't much
Carl Fogarty
9:24
Long-term who do you think emerges as the better hitter, Andrew Benintendi or Nomar Mazara?
Jeff Sullivan
9:24
Benintendi. Easy
9:25
I prefer both Benintendi's judgment and Benintendi's bat-to-ball skills
Hi
9:25
Who do you think gets more saves for San Diego and Colorado this season - Maurer, Capps. Ottavino, Holland in Colorado ? Thank you
Jeff Sullivan
9:26
This is a thinly-disguised fantasy question! But, what the hell. Maurer and Capps will end up about 50/50, and Holland will out-close Ottavino
I assume Maurer will close from the beginning, and then Capps will eventually overtake him. And then there will be trades and who knows
Kevin
9:27
With the emergence of late-bloomers like Donaldson, Murphy and Turner as unlikely superstars, is the talent-margin so slim among major league batters that virtually anyone can reach that level with the proper adjustment?
Jeff Sullivan
9:28
That's the big question, right? How narrow is the talent distribution? When I've thought about this from a different perspective, I've considered hangers-on like Chone Figgins, who refuse to believe they're toast when they're toast. I don't think it's stubbornness; I think it's feeling like you're the same as ever, when you're actually at 95%, and losing that 5% is enormously important
9:29
With certain players, I think we know enough to know they can't be offensive juggernauts. Ben Revere will never hit for power. Billy Burns and, I don't know, Andrelton Simmons will never hit for power. But there are a lot more potential power hitters than there are current power hitters, and we're going to see more of these transitions
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