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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 3/24/17
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Jeff Sullivan
9:03
Hello friends
Welcome to Friday baseball chat
Bork
9:03
Hello, friend!
Jeff Sullivan
9:03
Hello friend
Bork
9:03
Hello Friend
Jeff Sullivan
9:04
Impostor!
Matt
9:04
What are your thoughts on Anthony Rendon for 2017?
Jeff Sullivan
9:04
I like him very much, as always. In a way playing for the Nationals does him a disservice, because they have so many top players he can't stand out from the pack
9:05
He's going to continue to be one of the game's premier across-the-board contributors
Ned Yost
9:05
Do you think Michael Feliz will be a game changer in the Astros bullpen this year?
Jeff Sullivan
9:06
Well, I think he's going to be one of several quality relievers out there. And I love that he can go multiple innings at a time
I know that there are a lot of deep bullpens these days. The Astros might have the deepest one
Bork
9:07
So Mike Trout is good at baseball.
Jeff Sullivan
9:07
The Earth is good at spinning
Raindog
9:07
Percent chance an Oriole leads the league in HR for the 5th year in a row?
Jeff Sullivan
9:08
Chris Davis projected to hit the most dingers. There's another Oriole in the top 10, and *another* Oriole just outside of it
I'll go 33%
Brett W
9:10
Inspired by Jonah Keri. Mike Trout and Yunel Escobar for Kris Bryant and Jon Jay. Who says no?
Jeff Sullivan
9:10
ugh, dang it
ok
9:11
Four years of an expensive Trout, vs. five years of an expensive but less-expensive Bryant
9:12
Trout's *better*, but...by how much is he...arg I hate this
9:13
I still think you keep Trout, because he's the better player, in the better league, with better bat-to-ball skills. But this almost couldn't be closer
Jerry
9:13
Is a run in the first inning as important as a run in the ninth? Is a W in game one as important as a W in game 162?
Jeff Sullivan
9:14
Not enough information. It's entirely a matter of leverage
Some runs in the ninth are extremely important. Some runs in the ninth are extremely irrelevant. All runs in the first are more or less modestly important
IsBrittonInYet
9:15
On Toronto radio this morning, Mark Shapiro called Zeke Carrera "a darling of the analytics world." Seems a little odd. What are your thoughts on Zeke?
Jeff Sullivan
9:15
There must be another analytics world, a second analytics world, that studies something other than professional baseball
9:16
He doesn't hit the ball very hard. Statcast doesn't love his defense. The other numbers don't love his defense. He's 30 years old, having averaged 0.9 WAR per 600 plate appearances
9:17
I know that last year there were some signs of life, but I just don't really get it here
Aron
9:17
Why are you so much higher on Paxton than some others? What gives others pause but not you?
Jeff Sullivan
9:18
I can't speak for everyone but Paxton doesn't have a long track record of health or strikes. I can't predict his health, but everything about what he did on the field last season was extremely encouraging
I'm a big believer in his adjusted mechanics. I think he looks a lot smoother, and it simply changed the game for him
Robin
9:18
Thoughts on Vogelbach's demotion? Change how you think about the M's offseason?
Jeff Sullivan
9:19
Not really, because I never thought Vogelbach was very good. Valencia is just as good, and Vogelbach still has time. He'll be back up eventually
Insano in the Membrane
9:19
How much of a difference in team K% over the course of a season can be expected by replacing a sub average pitch framing catcher with an above average option? (Cough Twins Cough)
Jeff Sullivan
9:20
Probably something in the vicinity of 1%. Would be worth a quick study. You'd also have a little drop in walk rate. Small differences over a large sample of time
Ghost of Greg Maddux Past
9:21
Where do you think Derek Norris ends up?
Jeff Sullivan
9:22
Tom Murphy is hurt and I'm pretty sure he has options, so I could easily see Norris scooting over to Colorado
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