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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 4/1/16
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Jeff Sullivan
9:39
I don't know how to pick a number but the timing makes it difficult. Much easier to make good use of $13 million at the start of the offseason than at the end. This could and should make it easier for the White Sox to make a roster addition in the middle of the summer, so there's that. But I can't imagine it's going to be used with 100% efficiency
TF Fredrik
9:40
Is it, whats the right word, spoiled, maybe even MLB-centric, to say I so wish I could see Otani over here in the majors now. Is there a certain etiquette about talent abroad that we can’t watch. I know youre a pitch dork, so figure it burns ya to not be able to watch best non-MLB pitcher.
Jeff Sullivan
9:42
Baseball has an important presence here, but it also has an important presence in Japan. While we have the most prominent league, I don't want for Japanese baseball to be destroyed, and it just wouldn't be a successful league if all the good talent just up and bolted for North America. So I like having some semblance of balance, where elite talent can play there for a stretch. It's not in ideal alignment with my own selfishness, but the way I figure, Otani will still find his way over here at some point. Best of both worlds
Best-ish of both worlds
It's not like we don't get to watch elite-level talent every single day. The majors aren't hurting for ability
J
9:43
Odds the Yanks go after Strasburg in free agency? Nova, Chapman, Beltran, and Tex are off the books, Tanaka can opt out soon and Severino is the only guy under control after 2017. System is light on pitching too.
Jeff Sullivan
9:43
Yeah, they'll be in there
mtsw
9:44
What would a 2015-Nationals disappointment for the 2016 Cubs look like? What is the most plausible scenario in which the Cubs' wheels fall off somehow?
Jeff Sullivan
9:45
Soler/Schwarber don't hit enough, Zobrist spends time on the DL, Russell fails to impress, some starting pitcher gets hurt. And then you have simple BaseRuns underachievement
Remember, the Nationals were an 83-win team that BaseRuns thought was a 90-win team. So all you have to do is give the Cubs a pinch of bad timing, which would have nothing to do with raw ability
Erik
9:46
Which rebuilding team is best following the Cubs/Astros model? Also is there really a Cubs/Astros model, or are we just throwing a narrative on after the fact?
Jeff Sullivan
9:46
So much of the model is "luck into an Arrieta or Keuchel"
Let's see. It's not the Padres, and it's not the Rockies, clearly
9:47
It's not the Reds, because they keep accumulating low-upside returns
It's not the Braves, because they've accumulated talented but damaged pitchers
9:48
Leaves us with the Phillies and Brewers. They seem similar to me, although the Phillies have way more resources. So you could compare the Phillies to the Cubs, and the Brewers to the Astros
Matt
9:49
Hey Jeff! Historically (relatively speaking, of course) I had always read about JP Crawford being a mostly glove-first kinda guy. As of the last few months, I feel that I've read a lot of people talking about him as an impact bat. Were there changes he made? Or is it just seeming more likely that he'll reach a ceiling that was previously a less likely outcome?
Jeff Sullivan
9:52
Crawford isn't going to be one of the best hitters in the majors or anything, but he profiles as an outstanding shortstop. He had a tremendous offensive season against advanced competition at a young age, and that's proven to be a very strong indicator. He doesn't hit for much power yet, but he doesn't just slap the ball on the ground. And he walked more than he struck out in Double-A. First exposure. Quick hands. Maybe he'll be the shortstop Michael Brantley
9:53
Or the shortstop Mookie Betts. You pick
j6takish
9:54
Jeff, it is "crazy shirt day" at my office. What has my life become?
Jeff Sullivan
9:54
A cornucopia of underappreciated opportunity
Von Schloss
9:54
Chances Strasburg resigns with the Nats?
Jeff Sullivan
9:54
Low
daneyko
9:54
best underrated SP: Chris Bassitt or Shane Greene
Jeff Sullivan
9:55
Chase Anderson!
Wait, I mean Cody Anderson
Cody Anderson
but Chase Anderson too
e
9:56
How many bases would Billy Hamilton steal with a .330 OBP? 1,000?
Jeff Sullivan
9:56
You're giving him 20% more stealing opportunities than he had last season. That would take him up to an estimated 69 successful steals
9:57
You are underwhelmed by this answer. The fault is yours
BK
9:57
Are you a believer in Aaron Sanchez?
Jeff Sullivan
9:57
Not as a starter, but I'm open-minded
Mike S.
9:58
Are the Braves seriously going to only carry one LHP on the OD roster?
Jeff Sullivan
9:58
Probably few things in the world to worry about less than the Braves' 2016 opening day roster
merlin
9:58
Suppose Hanley is healthy enough to play a 150 games this season: where would you peg his production?
Jeff Sullivan
9:59
Average player. Helpful enough to stay out of the spotlight
Of course Hanley has reached 150 games exactly once since 2010
carl
9:59
I'm reading that the Milwaukee closer situation is fluid - that it may not be just Jeffress. is that the case?
Jeff Sullivan
9:59
Yes
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