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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 4/1/16
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Josh
10:01
Are the Blue Jays one of the best offences ever?
Jeff Sullivan
10:02
They were last season. They aren't projected to repeat as such, because projections never really predict extreme performances. If you think the Blue Jays will be just as good, then there you go. I don't think they will be
Erik
10:03
Are all WAR created equal? Or should teams aim for either a balanced or unbalanced distribution of pitching/hitting/fielding/defense?
Jeff Sullivan
10:03
In theory, all WAR are created equal. Doesn't mean it's true in practice, but I've seen nothing to convince me that a given distribution is better than another
Robbie
10:05
What do you think about the D-backs' middle infield situation? Segura, Owings, Ahmed, Drury, and Gosselin all had great springs. I was really encouraged by Owings' walk total, which was always sort of his bugaboo, and Drury looks like maybe the most complete player out of the bunch.
Jeff Sullivan
10:06
I'm sorry to say I care pretty much not at all about a player's spring-training walk rate. Would be more important just to see that Owings' swing is back to where it used to be
10:07
It's obviously a busy area for the team. Drury lurks as a midseason replacement. None of these players project super well, but Drury has the upside, and the team believes pretty big in Segura's bounceback potential.
10:08
I think it'll be revealed pretty fast whether Segura can hit again. Same goes for Owings. Ahmed can fill in to provide defense if one of the starters has a bad time, but Drury will be available if they want some pop. Out of four moderately interesting young players, you hope there are two who can be half-decent this year in the majors. The D-Backs need to identify those two as soon as they can
mtsw
10:09
2015 was Ryan Webb, 2016 has Hyun Soo Kim. Can the Orioles enter a season without getting into a totally embarrassing contract snafu that ends with them eating millions of dollars?
Jeff Sullivan
10:10
This Kim situation is almost unwinnable. It's the Orioles' own fault, of course, but I don't know how they could've predicted Kim would look this bad. I know people talk about how Kang struggled last spring, too, but at least Kang had six extra-base hits and a couple of homers. Has Kim hit anything hard? Going through his highlights, even the hits are bloops or infield grounders
2-D
10:11
Is there a uniform number you hate seeing on a certain player? Something about a position player wearing 55 seems wrong.
Jeff Sullivan
10:12
Anything Scott Spiezio wore
fuck Scott Spiezio
j6takish
10:12
Jeff, you're the only person I've ever heard pronounce GIF "correctly". How do you sleep at night?
Jeff Sullivan
10:12
Wonderfully
Hank
10:13
Everyone is looking for that one pitcher that can go from "good starter" to Cy Young candidate, ala Jake Arrieta & Dallas Keuchel. How surprised would you be if that pitcher this season was Drew Smyly? I just get the feel that he's going to be the next great Rays SP.
Jeff Sullivan
10:14
I don't *expect* it to be Drew Smyly, but if that's how things turn out, then we'll just look back at his 28% strikeout rate from 2015, and say, "well, yeah"
10:15
It's not like he hasn't given us signs. Since joining the Rays, he has a 66 ERA-. Four times as many strikeouts as walks
TF Fredrik
10:15
I feel an odd sense that next week I am more interested in watching the un-established/youthful 4-5 starters that have potential then I do for the top guys. We already know what guys like Scherzer, Sale, & Price types throw. The Aaron Sanchez’s, Robbie Ray’s, & your boy, Cody Anderson’s of the world bring that unknown aspect that I want to have hard numbers/results for.
Jeff Sullivan
10:16
I'm really interested to see a few starts of Sanchez. Anderson, too, because I want to know if this stuff is legit, but there's no Aaron Sanchez spring-training PITCHf/x. I want to see his secondary stuff, in the data
Ryan
10:17
Would a Rusney Castillo-Alex Guerrero swap make any sense? Dodgers would get some OF depth to help them while Ethier is out; Red Sox get some IF depth to help them while Pablo Sandoval rides the pine. Or is Guerrero not really an IFer at all at this point?
Jeff Sullivan
10:18
Don't think the Red Sox want to pick up a guy who can opt into free agency after the season
Kole
10:19
Why do you think that Dipoto chose to go forward with Ketel Marte instead of Brad Miller?
Jeff Sullivan
10:19
Part better defense, and part the Rays always liked Brad Miller
Chris
10:19
People are saying the Red Sox bench is terrible now, but aren't these moves (Shaw, Holt) intended to just put the best team on the field?
Jeff Sullivan
10:19
Right. I mean, if they kept Shaw and Holt on the bench, then their starters would just look worse
10:20
There are problems on the roster. Can't just make them disappear that easy
Von Schloss
10:20
NL East team with better SS of the future: Nats with Turner or Braves with Swanson?
Jeff Sullivan
10:20
I'll say Turner
Chris
10:22
What would be a fair return for Bauer from the Rangers? Do you like the deal for both sides?
Jeff Sullivan
10:22
Kela would be interesting. More of a sure-thing reliever, in exchange for reliever or starter upside.
10:23
If I were the Indians, though, I'd just hang on to Bauer and see what he does out of the bullpen
He hasn't been a reliever yet. I'd like to see it
Turbo
10:23
Do you feel the current basket of analytical tools can adequately assign value to "Clutch" hitting?
Jeff Sullivan
10:23
I don't think we struggle to assign value. I think we struggle to identify who has it, or how real it is.
mtsw
10:24
Think the Yankees would be risking Miller playing with a chipped bone in his non-throwing hand if Chapman hadn't been suspended?
Jeff Sullivan
10:25
Seems like they'll know pretty soon how realistic this is. If Miller can pitch with this, great. If he can't, they'll find out quickly, and it'll get taken care of. He wouldn't stand to lose much extra time
KB
10:25
Albeit a small sample size but Domingo Santana is still striking out around 32% of the time in Spring Training. Will he be able to make the jump to the next level with these continued whiffs?
Jeff Sullivan
10:25
No
Steve Z
10:27
Mike Trout generated more baseball value when his game was stronger across each area WAR measures. But, Trout packed on the muscle and adjusted his stroke in order to hit more homeruns. The result: His HR totals increase along with his K-rate. His SB totals decline and he produces less defensive value. The upshot: He's less valuable now than he was during his first two seasons.
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