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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 5/12/17
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Jeff Sullivan
9:04
Hello friends
Welcome to Friday baseball chat
Bork
9:04
Hello, friend!
Jeff Sullivan
9:04
Hello friend
Be a Dahl
9:05
David Dahl seems like a key long term piece for the Rockies. Do you think they turn him into a part time player or send him to the minors until Mark Reynolds cools down?
Jeff Sullivan
9:06
Neither would be very surprising and neither would really be that bad of a situation for Dahl to find himself in. I don't think the Rockies are at risk of stunting his development if they don't play him every single day in the major leagues. Besides, he still has to get healthy first, and Mark Reynolds presumably can't keep this going forever
Bork
9:06
Is Justin Smoak the new Miggy?
Jeff Sullivan
9:07
Even last year, there were reasons to feel okay about Smoak, based on how he swung and hit the ball. Now he's sitting on a 119 wRC+. He's even -- get this -- been okay against curveballs!
9:08
Smoak has seen a massive drop in his rate of fastballs. Which makes sense, given his history. Hasn't slowed him down. It's modestly encouraging
Skeptical Jays Fan
9:08
Justin Smoak seems to be doing something different. Launch angle looks great (from right side, at least), 5% more 95+ mph events, Z-contact is 9% above career average, pitches per plate appearance are down. Can he be better than black hole or have pitchers temporarily forget to just throw bendy stuff out of the zone?
Jeff Sullivan
9:08
I should've seen this next in the queue
9:09
Pitchers haven't forgotten to throw Smoak secondary stuff. They're throwing him more secondary stuff than ever. He's just doing a good job of seeing the pitches out of hands. The contact jump is nice to see, although I don't completely buy it yet
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe
9:11
Matt Harvey is looking like Jonny Manziel. John Lackey leads clubhouse insurrections with fried chicken and suggests other players' PED use. Jose Bautista is Baltimore's number one enemy, according to Peter Angelos. Using the new clubhouse cancer metric, dbag+, who are some of the highest ranking offenders in your mind?
Jeff Sullivan
9:11
I don't think Baltimore hating Jose Bautista has anything to do with how Toronto feels about Jose Bautista
9:12
Harvey does feel like he'd be up there. And although I don't know if Yasiel Puig counts as a dbag, it's no secret he's challenging to be around on a regular basis
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe
9:12
What is the last fiction book you read? Nonfiction?
Jeff Sullivan
9:13
Don't remember the last fiction book. Presently going through The Sixth Extinction
GMing
9:13
If you were the GM of the Cubs, would you consider maximizing trade return and trading Addison Russell and turning Candelario into a semi-regular 3B (shifting Baez to SS and Bryant to OF)?
Jeff Sullivan
9:13
I wouldn't!
I don't think you'd maximize anything by trying to move Addison Russell right now
Moltar
9:14
Seriously, what's the deal with Jason Vargas? Get Tommy John, throws 86, becomes a strikeout machine???
Jeff Sullivan
9:14
I am so very resistant to writing about this but god dammit it's feeling inevitable
Top five qualified starters in in-zone contact rate: deGrom, Paxton, Sale, Rodriguez, Vargas
????
9:15
Vargas has the same in-zone contact rate as Max Scherzer. I don't get it. I guess maybe next week I will
Pie
9:16
Just realized that league-wide BABIP is at its lowest level since at least
Jeff Sullivan
9:16
I know the end of this is cut off, but, anyway
Running a quick search of monthly BABIPs over the past decade
9:17
Sample of 168 months. This April had the 19th-lowest BABIP
9:18
Well, that's not entirely correct. This Play Index is more complicated than I thought. But anyway! The bigger point is that this wasn't a particularly low month
Rather, BABIP tends to increase as the season wears on and the days get warmer
9:19
Over the past decade, baseball has posted a .294 BABIP in April. That's gone up to .301 in August
So you have to remember to always compare against similar time windows
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe
9:20
Should the American League Cleveland Baseball Franchise retake the mascot 'Spiders?'
Jeff Sullivan
9:20
No one would go to games anymore
No one would buy apparel
Mere mentions of the team would drive people out of rooms and buildings
No spiders
The great Schwarbino
9:20
Am I going to be okay? What's a realistic stat line for my first full season?
Jeff Sullivan
9:21
You are fine and have been overrated
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