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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 6/16/17
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Jeff Sullivan
9:05
Hello friends
Welcome to Friday baseball chat
Bork
9:05
Hello, friend!
Jeff Sullivan
9:05
Hello friend
Bork
9:05
Chris Sale ended the Phillies losing streak. How much has his value tanked?
Jeff Sullivan
9:05
Probably just unmovable at this point
Dudas Luca
9:06
Jordan Zimmermann wasn't terrible yesterday. Do you think he might keep not being terrible, or has that ship sailed?
Jeff Sullivan
9:07
I don't think the ship has sailed away out of sight -- Zimmermann is still basically getting chases and contact like he did in 2015. That year, he was much better. But his stuff still isn't quite what it was when he left the Nationals, and I don't see any other positive signs in the numbers
9:08
Zimmermann is up to 31 starts with the Tigers, with a K-BB% under 10%. He looks like, at best, a No. 4
Eduardo
9:08
Aaron Judge 2016 = Chris Davis 2013?
Jeff Sullivan
9:09
Judge goes fishing a lot less often. He also has what I think is a quicker, shorter swing, so I think he should be less prone to deep, deep slumps
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe
9:10
Who would you place your chips on: Chris Archer or Jake DeGrom? xFIP is nearly identical while the results have been much worse for the latter.
Jeff Sullivan
9:10
Well, that depends. I think Archer is the better pitcher, and he also gets to pitch in front of the better defense. but deGrom has the advantage of working in the godawful NL East, so that'll be better for his results
Kevin
9:11
What is Sonny Gray?
Jeff Sullivan
9:12
At present, a No. 2 starting pitcher showing the best velocity he's had in a while
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe
9:12
What's your take on the juiced baseball theory?
Jeff Sullivan
9:13
My beliefs have changed based on the evidence as it's come out, but my current belief is that the baseballs have indeed changed. And, in response to the ball flying further, hitters have attempted to hit more home runs, which has amplified the trend. So, the slightly juiced ball would've led almost directly to a subtle change in hitting style
jake
9:13
Jason Vargas has been worth 2.1 fWAR, has an 11% swinging strike rate, and is going to finish the season with an ERA around 3. He deserves an article.
Jeff Sullivan
9:14
Jason Vargas has a 104 xFIP-. He has a career 110 xFIP-. He was at 108 between 2012 - 2014. I remain greatly skeptical this is about anything more than random homer suppression
9:15
Trust me, I still keep an eye on him every week, but I haven't seen enough yet to make me budge
The Average Sports Fan
9:16
In hindsight, do you think the Twins are glad they turned down De Leon for Dozier?
Jeff Sullivan
9:16
In hindsight, yeah, for sure. The Twins are in first place and De Leon is on the minor-league DL
But, of course, that's not the end of either story
Best Bet
9:16
You seem down on Rich Hill--with good reason. Odds of a rebound?
Jeff Sullivan
9:17
Depends on the magnitude of the rebound. He'll get better than this, but I'd give him maybe a 25% chance of getting back to what he was, completely. 40-50% chance of becoming pretty good
His numbers now look even worse than they did yesterday afternoon, when I wrote the article. At that point, the plate-discipline data hadn't updated to include Hill's most recent start
PF
9:19
When will we see draft picks being traded in MLB, if ever? It would make for a more interesting draft day....... On the subject, would you trade all your 15->30 round picks for another teams first?
Jeff Sullivan
9:19
Well, to partially address your point, teams can trade competitive-balance draft picks. Those are the only picks that can be traded
9:21
I know you're basically asking about all picks, even high ones. Here's Jayson Stark on that from 2015 http://www.espn.com/blog/jayson-stark/post/_/id/1261/its-time-to-trade...
I think opening the door to trading competitive-balance picks paves the way for all picks to be tradeable down the road
Might still be 5 or 10 or 15 years off, but it does feel inevitable
9:22
As for the second question, no. I'd trade plenty of picks for pick No. 1, but I wouldn't trade the entire back half of the first round
greg
9:23
If the red sox really don't want to bring up Devers, wouldn't Zack Cozart go a long way towards solving their 3B problem?  Sure, he'd have to slide over (or someone would), but he'd be a solid placeholder for a few months.  They couldn't get him for peanuts, but he shouldn't cost a king's ransom either.
Jeff Sullivan
9:24
I've been a supporter of the Cozart idea. I think it's worth investigating, especially now that the Reds have finally faded. Moustakas would be an obvious get if the Royals faded enough to sell. And Todd Frazier would be fairly affordable
A few ways they could go, and Frazier wouldn't require them to dip far in the farm
Ethan Hunt
9:24
What is Matt Davidson?
Jeff Sullivan
9:25
One of hundreds of players who like to hit against the Orioles
9:26
He's a little like Keon Broxton without the defensive and baserunning value
tggt
9:26
What speed is the Keon Broxton trade moving?  If the defensive metrics didn't suddenly hate him, he'd be on a 2-3 win pace, and yet he's seemed so... disappointing.
Jeff Sullivan
9:27
Well, his most promising offensive metrics have fallen apart. His chase rate is up, and his contact is down. He couldn't afford to lose much more contact
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