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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 6/3/16
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Jeff Sullivan
9:06
Hello friends
Let's baseball chat
Bork
9:06
Hello, friend!
Jeff Sullivan
9:06
Hello friend
Ben
9:07
Dae-Ho Lee vs RHP: 189 wRC+
Dae-Ho Lee vs LHP: 130 wRC+
Jeff Sullivan
9:07
I don't care about the splits as much as I care about the overall line. Lee works! Kang works! Kim works! Park works!
I wonder if it's time to seriously consider the return of Eric Thames
Bork
9:08
The Padres sure showed Ron Fowler he was wrong!
Jeff Sullivan
9:08
At least the position-player part
The Decadent Moose
9:08
With the impending Evan Scribner return, is there room in the bullpen. If so, what's his role?
Jeff Sullivan
9:09
There is room on account of the fact they just promoted Cody Martin. There's always room in a bullpen. He'll be low-leverage at first
Barves gotta Barve
9:09
What's with all the Subaru's in Portland?
Jeff Sullivan
9:10
Generally an active city, and a Subaru is probably the best compromise between drivability and durability. Doesn't consume too much fuel and it makes trailheads and put-ins and whatnot more easily accessible.
Zonk
9:10
The Cubs run differential after 50 games, +128, is the highest since the 1939 Yankees. History!
Jeff Sullivan
9:11
They've slowed down of course -- of course -- but even over the past few weeks, when they've gone 12-9, they've outscored their opponents by 31. Only the Giants have had a better Pythagorean record
Dustin
9:12
Jeff, let's pretend that 100 pitches is a good marker for pitcher fatigue. I know it's more complicated, but let's just say that it is... Doesn't it drive you crazy that pitch count doesn't take into account pick-offs, warm-ups before innings, catch early in the day, etc. Like, we have this arbitrary 'pitch count' thing that completely ignores other actions of the same type (throwing). No real question here other than 'does this bug you'... Idk, maybe talk about your thoughts on it? This was a mess of a question.
Jeff Sullivan
9:13
It does bug me in a similar way to how we don't have any measurements for how often a reliever gets up but then never gets into the game. Throwing in the bullpen isn't too dissimilar from throwing in a game. Now, throwing actual pitches in an actual game figures to be the most taxing thing, due to the adrenaline and stakes involved, but those other throws all matter. I think 100 functions as a convenient simple proxy. As you get close to 100, you monitor how the pitcher is feeling, and then you operate on that knowledge
It is kind of a wonder to me we don't see more injuries on pick-off attempts given how the throwing motion can sometimes be super weird
Kal
9:14
Can Trumbo keep this up all season?
Jeff Sullivan
9:14
No, but he already has his highest WAR in four years
9:15
That trade has already paid off for the Orioles and we're a third of the way into the season
Curtis
9:15
99.9% Win Probability is NOT equal to 100%.
Jeff Sullivan
9:15
Last team that needs to be reminded of that is the Mariners
JayDun
9:15
Haven’t seen much on the site about Dae-Ho Lee, who seems to be flying under the radar. But his numbers look great. Can he keep this up in an everyday role over a full season?
Jeff Sullivan
9:16
Can't imagine he actually gets the chance given Adam Lind's track record, but you can buy the bat. The power is real, and he's made league-average contact. Don't buy the 154 wRC+, but...120? Sure, I'll take 120
9:18
Remember that the thing about Lee in Japan was that he hit for power while controlling the zone. Park, by contrast in Korea, struck out a lot. So that's a variable
j6takish
9:19
Jeff, how have the Tigers managed to have a below average bullpen for like a decade straight? You would think just by how many guys they cycle through, they could have collected a few decent relievers by now. Is this an org problem or just coincidence?
Jeff Sullivan
9:20
For whatever it's worth, the 2011 bullpen was fantastic. The next couple years it was also okay
9:21
But! For fun, over the past decade, Tigers relievers are 24th in WPA. Yankees are No. 1 by a mile. Astros and Mets are at the bottom
9:22
I think a lot of it is just weird bad luck, but like, Rodriguez/Wilson/Lowe was supposed to be a thing this year. Rodriguez and Wilson should be fine, but Lowe has completely given back his velocity gain. So now he sucks
9:23
Up 3.3mph last year, down 3.3mph this year. I don't want to speculate on why that could be happening...right when Lowe was just about out of baseball...but it's happened. And this year's version is bad
Kal
9:24
Will the Mets ever give Conforto a chance to learn to hit LHPs?
Jeff Sullivan
9:25
92% at-bats against righties last year, 80% this year. He's getting some more looks
Argo
9:26
Where do you fall on the matter of Chris Archer? Bad luck, bad approach or injured?
Jeff Sullivan
9:27
I think there's a mechanical problem that's costing him location, but even at his best, Archer wasn't a pinpoint sort of pitcher. He's usually just past that line of acceptable wildness, and now that he's taken a step back, the walks are spiraling. He is better than this, but I wouldn't be surprised if last year in the first half was his career peak
Andy
9:29
Hellickson looks much better this year than in the past. What's he doing differently?
Jeff Sullivan
9:29
facing pitchers
9:30
Less snarkily, he's throwing his best changeup in years. That's a pitch that compels hitters to expand, so Hellickson hasn't been forced into the zone too much. He's kind of getting back to where he was when he was initially interesting
9:31
Hellickson is right around a career-high strike rate with a career-low zone rate. That reflects well on his secondary stuff
Argo
9:32
Brian McCann is sitting a lot lately. Is this just a slump or is he becoming a platoon player?
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