JotCast | Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 8/18/17

Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 8/18/17

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Q-Ball

9:27

Setback for Yasmany Tomas, but does it really matter? Are the D-Backs better without him in the OF?

Jeff Sullivan

9:27

They could use him off the bench, but yeah, they're better without him playing defense

Zock Jr.

9:27

Jeff, who's the better hitter for the BoSox ROS: Devers or Mookie?

Jeff Sullivan

9:27

Mookie

GraphsFan

9:28

Fielding metrics are the hardest to quantify and understand. Is there a sliding scale of plays made on balls in play? I.e. An 80 grade fielder makes a certain play 50% of the time, a 70 grade fielder makes the play 30% of the time, 60 grade 10%, etc etc.

Jeff Sullivan

9:28

It's fun to play around with this https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/catch_probability_leaderboard

Hot tip: that leaderboard is a great way to prevent yourself from being too disappointed in Byron Buxton

BJOGC

9:29

I know that he *won’t* win a MVP but hypothetically speaking, how would you react IF Max Schrock one day wins a MVP award?

Jeff Sullivan

9:29

I'd have some post written about how while Schrock was good, it should've been Mike Trout

Brian

9:30

How have your thoughts on the free agent deals that Machado and Harper will get changed from before this season started to now?

Jeff Sullivan

9:31

Not much change. Teams are smart enough to look beyond Machado's surface numbers, and Harper, once again, has been a productive player with an injury issue. They're going to strike it mighty rich, as has been assumed

Machado hasn't taken his Trout turn yet, but he remains no less intriguing than he was

I-5 Buddies

9:31

I have to commute south for work along I-5. Not looking forward to monday. Maybe I'll be stuck next to you guys for a few hours.

Jeff Sullivan

9:31

Maybe we'll have you on as a podcast guest through the window

Q-Ball

9:31

Is the Knuckleball dying? Why don't more fringe velo guys in the minors give it a shot?

Jeff Sullivan

9:31

They do. They suck. It's hard

Bryan

9:32

Cubs are 5-5 in their last 10 and 75% into the season. At what point do we start to acknowledge that the Cubs team this year isn't the team from last year and aren't very good?

Jeff Sullivan

9:32

Well, I think we can say they're not the team from last year. The team from last year was one of the all-time best

9:33

But this year's Cubs have the same BaseRuns record as the Red Sox. This Cubs team is still good. It is underachieving but it is still good

Brian

9:34

Joey Votto and Anthony Rizzo both choke up on the bat and do so extremely with 2 strikes. Barry Bonds also choked up on the bat. Why dont more hitters do this in the high strikeout era? Could choking up be the next fly ball revolution?

Jeff Sullivan

9:34

I doubt it. Choking up isn't glamorous. And the three players you've cited are different levels of elite. Many other hitters wouldn't have a prayer of being so successful

kyle

9:35

is there a place you can look up how many times a particular player has faced an infield shift?

Jeff Sullivan

9:35

Kind of. We have stats on leaderboards and player pages about balls in play hit into a shift, which is a half-decent proxy.

It's not perfect, but it's better than nothing

Rudy L

9:36

Kyle Seager just isn't that good, is he? Has he passed his peak? I'd rank him no better than an average 3B.

Jeff Sullivan

9:36

Well, third base as a position is incredibly deep. But Kyle Seager is still good

Shaemus

9:37

The twins might make the playoffs, despite selling at the deadline. How crazy is this?

Jeff Sullivan

9:37

7/10 crazy. It would be crazier if a team had to be actually good to claim the second wild-card position. This year it doesn't seem like that's going to be true

9:38

The Angels are our current favorites to win ALWC2, and their projected record is 82-80

Q-Ball

9:38

As time passes, I become more in favor of Robo Umps for the strike zone. What's your take?

Jeff Sullivan

9:40

I've experienced the opposite. I used to be a lot more inflexible than I am now. Five or seven years ago, I knew what I wanted, and what I wanted was an automated strike zone. Now I don't mind the strike zone as it is, but remember I'm not coming from the same fan standpoint as most of y'all. So I don't have the same emotional investment. Plus, I regard the automated strike zone as inevitable, and I won't be upset when it's finally implemented

Harry

9:40

How do you deal with nuisance sasquatches while hiking?

Jeff Sullivan

9:40

I've learned from television commercials to just not try to prank them

Never prank a sasquatch

kyle

9:41

Joe mauer HoF? historically great catcher pre concussion historically light hitting first baseman post concussion.

Jeff Sullivan

9:41

Right now I don't think he'll make it, but he's going to end up as one of those borderline guys who's written about a lot. It's going to come down to how the future voting pool decides to handle catchers, with whatever new data is made available

9:42

I mean, Mauer has a way higher career fWAR than Yadier Molina, who a lot of people think will make it. Molina will get tons of credit for leadership stuff that Mauer will miss out on, but the point is, there will be a case

mmddyyyy

9:42

If every team had drafted an Otani last year, how many would have been traded this year?

Jeff Sullivan

9:43

Maybe one. Teams hold onto those guys

Shaemus

9:43

I really like watching the Padres. Am I crazy?

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