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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 8/18/17
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Jeff Sullivan
9:43
No, you're not crazy
You're probably weird to hang out with, but you're not crazy
Nats fan
9:45
Can you compare Treinen and Kintzler for this year (ignoring contract status. Did we get basically the same pitcher with very divergent results?
Jeff Sullivan
9:46
Treinen traffics more in getting hitters to miss. As a result, he gets into deeper counts, and he ends up with more walks. Kintzler feels like he's more in control, even if his results aren't likely to be much better in the end
Daniel
9:46
Hey Jeff, how would teams go about valuing the international dollars available to them?
Jeff Sullivan
9:46
There's some kind of analysis to be run on all the trades so far that have involved international money. Seems like the exchange rate is kind of like $1 of international money = $3 - 4 of regular money
Jay
9:47
What kind of shot does Paul Goldschmidt have to be a Hall of Famer?
Jeff Sullivan
9:47
Like Joey Votto, Goldschmidt technically started a little late
9:48
Like Joey Votto, he's been elite ever since
Unlike Joey Votto, he's 29, with 20 fewer WAR
9:49
It's far from obvious that Votto will be a Hall-of-Famer. Goldschmidt himself still has a ways to go. It's probable that Votto's initial years of eligibility will be telling, but for right now, Goldschmidt is worse than a 50/50 shot
v2micca
9:49
As if we weren't already going to be comparing them for the rest of their lives, Mike Trout, homerun number 150.  Age 24 years 295 days.  Bryce Harper, homerun number 150.  Age 24 years 295 days.
Jeff Sullivan
9:49
I enjoy that fun fact
Also, Mike Trout is much much better
Absurd Questioner
9:49
I know you don't write about college basketball,  but Fangraphs may need a bracketologist for the AL Wild Card. How crazy are any of these teams to be thinking about buying before 8/31?
Jeff Sullivan
9:50
There's a difference between aggressive buying and opportunistic tweaking
It would be dumb for any of these teams to sacrifice something of value. It would not be dumb to add a veteran or two for the stretch run
Zonk
9:52
For the 2nd year in a row, Bryant has significantly cut his K-Rate, to a current 19%.  While he is not an MVP candidate this year, is he setting-up better for a long run with this?  Or, do you think he traded some power for contact?
Jeff Sullivan
9:53
I think Bryant is a little unsettled for now. Some of his trends are good, but then, he's also lost a big chunk off his hard-hit rate, and his expected wOBA has dropped. He's still young enough he could be in the process of consolidating. It's great to see his contact rate now approaching league average. I like the long-term future of this Bryant more than the 2015 edition
Bruce
9:53
Is gary sanchez officially good again?
Jeff Sullivan
9:53
He was never bad
PF
9:54
Who should the Jays target this offseason if they intend to truly return to competitiveness? Is it a big job? Do you think it's realistic?
Jeff Sullivan
9:54
The Blue Jays are basically a .500 team now and they've dealt with a lot of injuries
A few second- and third-tier offseason additions will give them an opportunity for another shot
E
9:58
Is Joey Gallo approaching the lower limits of AVG and OBP while still remaining an above average hitter overall?
Jeff Sullivan
9:59
Average, yes; OBP, no
His OBP is .327. Perfectly fine! There have been reasonable hitters before with OBPs south of .300
Dave
9:59
Did the Tigers send the Cubs a changeling in Justin Wilson's place?  If so, isn't that worse than the Cardinals' hacking scandal?
Jeff Sullivan
9:59
7 games, 7 walks, 5 strikeouts
10:00
Buying is hard
There's so much pressure on a GM -- not only are you trying to figure out how much to give up to get whatever you want, but you also have to prepare for the very real possibility that, for absolutely no good reason at all, the player you get might just suck
mmddyyyy
10:01
Does money to players not on the roster count toward the luxury tax?
Jeff Sullivan
10:02
The luxury tax considers only those players on the 40-man roster, right?
So this is why it was important when the Red Sox outrighted Rusney Castillo
Brian
10:03
Your Chris Davis article hit very close to me for me, an O's fan. Is his contract under water right now? 2.7 fWAR last year, projected 1.1 fWAR this year. $17M/yr salaries through 2022, then deferrals after. But possesses the one skill teams still overpay for.
Jeff Sullivan
10:03
Definitely underwater. There's no moving that
10:04
Davis needs to do his one thing at an elite level in order to be valuable. Fall short of that and there's no meaningful difference between Davis and, like, Chris Carter
Pie
10:04
The MLB page on tiebreakers for the WC stops after a 4-way tie for 1 WC spot. I think it's safe to say we may need explanations up to a 7-way tie after this year.
Jeff Sullivan
10:04
I want it to happen, but I want it to happen from afar. I do not want to have to deal with such a nightmare from a writing perspective
mmddyyyy
10:05
Suppose a parallel universe in which after the Y2K scare every child in the United States was required to play organized baseball until they turned 18. All other sports were disbanded. What % of the mlb players in our universe would be mlb players in that universe?
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