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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 8/25/17
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Jeff Sullivan
9:09
Terribly sorry about that
Had a problem with podcast recording
Hello friends!
Welcome to Friday baseball chat
Matt
9:09
Hey Jeff - did you hear there was a fight yesterday?
Jeff Sullivan
9:09
I heard there were four
I don't love when baseball players fight, but I more don't love when they just mill around aimlessly, so at least their hearts were in this one
9:10
Especially David Robertson's heart
TJ
9:10
Is Dillon Tate a prospect again?
Jeff Sullivan
9:11
I wouldn't say he's having an outstanding season or anything, but as a young pitcher with pedigree, sure, why not? It's seriously almost unpredictable when someone like this might have something click
The Average Sports Fan
9:11
The Dodgers have 36 games left.  Do you think they will get over 115 wins?
Jeff Sullivan
9:12
I don't. I think they'll slow down as they have less and less to play for
Now, how that happens in effect, I'm not sure -- they're so deep that even their backups are good. But I think that urgency matters, and they won't have it
Matt
9:12
Who are the NL wild cards going to be?
Jeff Sullivan
9:12
Still have to take the D-Backs and the Rockies, but did you notice that even the Marlins are technically on the outside of the hunt?
The Marlins!
JTT
9:13
The dodgers are going to beat the Mariners record not because they are a better team but because the Mariners cannot have nice things
Jeff Sullivan
9:13
The Mariners had a 116-win season
That counts as a nice thing
The Average Sports Fan
9:14
I was born in 1971.  Is Joey Votto the best Reds hitter of my lifetime?
Jeff Sullivan
9:15
Yes
I mean, technically, Kevin Mitchell was better, but he batted fewer than 1,000 times in the uniform. Votto's held it up for way longer
9:16
We'll see how Votto declines, I suppose, but I'm beginning to think he'll never decline, that he'll rather continue to improve until he ascends to become God
Aaron
9:16
Jeff, what's your take on the new Taylor Swift song?
Jeff Sullivan
9:16
I don't know yet but it's probably fine
The Dude
9:16
You buying into second half Buxton? I know people compare this to last year's hot September, but this year he's made a mechanical change and has cut down his k rate. Any worrisome trends in the second half?
Jeff Sullivan
I *want* to buy into current Buxton. And I'm excited to see that current Buxton is doing a better job than ever of making contact. That's the big difference between Buxton now and Buxton last September. But people are right to point out that Buxton has been a tease before. So, be encouraged, but do not yet be convinced
TJ
9:19
On a scale of 1 to Bobby Bonilla - how Mets is Conforto tearing his shoulder capsule on a swing?
Jeff Sullivan
9:19
At least you can kind of make mental sense of a team having so many pitching injuries. A great young hitter getting hurt just making a swing? That's so stupid. Poor Mets
uh
9:20
Will Teheran be good again? Did Atlanta make a huge mistake not trading him this winter?
Jeff Sullivan
9:21
Teheran doesn't exactly have the track record of being consistent. He kind of resembles his 2015 self, which came between his 2014 and 2016 selves. The stuff is the same. He's just...more wild. Bounceback potential is there, but his stock is way down
Bebop
9:21
Welington Castillo has been worth 7.3 defensive runs saved so far this year (11th in baseball), plus above average offensive production for a catcher...do you think he gets a bad or fair rap?
Jeff Sullivan
9:22
It's hard to be a lesser-known good player on a team that has better-known great players. Just ask Anthony Rendon
Solarte Eclipse
9:23
Bases loaded, no out, down 1-0 in the top of the 6th. The count is 3-0, and Solarte...swings? Is this as crazy as it seems?
Jeff Sullivan
9:24
I don't think it was crazy to swing. I think it was crazy to swing at what was probably a ball
9:25
Maybe Solarte figures down and in like that is around his hot zone, but that was a reasonable idea with lousy execution
Mike
9:26
Looking at the StatCast catch probability numbers, Benintendi is by a wide margin the worst regular outfielder in the league. Is StatCast broken in Fenway for some reason, is this just small sample size, or is he actually bad in the field?
Jeff Sullivan
9:26
I was thinking about the same thing the other day. My assumption for now is that Statcast doesn't know what to do about the Green Monster when it comes to interpreting catch probabilities
9:27
When you have a left fielder with the Red Sox, you just kind of have to assume it'll be hard to know how good his defense is. That being said, this is probably a blend of park factors and mediocre performance
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