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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 8/25/17
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Mac
9:27
Hypothetically speaking if WAR was counted for the postseason, would your top relievers pitch enough innings to maintain pace with starters/position players?
Jeff Sullivan
9:28
Probably not starters -- relievers pitch more, but starters also start a higher percentage of games than they do during the regular season
oh
9:28
The Brave's rebuild is off to a rocky start. Their rookies have not been great. Is it time to panic?
Jeff Sullivan
9:29
I'm given to understand there have been promising developments below the major leagues, which is the real point. That's where the talent is. But I'm generally skeptical of their pitching system. And so, thank goodness for Acuna
Phanatic
9:30
Keeeeeeeon Brooooxton
Jeff Sullivan
9:30
Don't give up, don't ever give up
TJ
9:32
Was there any winning outcome with Roberts and his call on what to do with Hill in the 10th?
Jeff Sullivan
9:33
I don't think he made the wrong call. Any blame that goes to Roberts really ought to go to the hitters
Mike
9:33
are you a Chris Stratton fan
Jeff Sullivan
9:33
Is that a thing?
9:34
I mean, I generally like most pitchers, but I don't like Stratton an unusual amount
I understand that, in horrible regular seasons, fans have to hold onto whatever they can
Mike
9:35
Are we all back on the Broxton train? Is it all going to work out?
Jeff Sullivan
9:35
He remains an above-average defensive center fielder with power and a strikeout problem. I'd like to see the walk rate or the strikeout rate move just a few points, but he's still an everyday player
TJ
9:37
What type of contract has Arrieta pitched his way back to?
Jeff Sullivan
9:38
He still has diminished stuff, and that's not something teams are going to overlook. He's not missing a ton of bats and he still doesn't throw quite enough strikes. I can see him getting an expensive four or five years, but I wouldn't want to be the team that offers that
NtFlxAndRichHill
9:39
Hi Jeff, thanks for chatting with us. In relation to the surging HR rates, are we seeing less extra bases being taken overall - I guess measured by percent of chances rather than success...
Jeff Sullivan
9:40
If I'm interpreting this question correctly:
According to Baseball Reference, in 1997, runners took the extra base 42% of the time. In 2007, that rate was 40%. This year, it's 39%
I don't know if that's enough to indicate a trend. Something to examine!
Kyle
9:41
Might Homer Bailey's contract rival Pujols' as the worst in baseball? He looks like he's going to give the Reds absolutely nothing.
Jeff Sullivan
9:42
Bailey's contract is going to look very bad, but his dead money can't compare with Pujols'. Pujols' contract looks dreadful
TJ
9:43
We've pretty safely moved to "Tanaka has shown enough to get a deal big enough to opt out for" territory, right?
Jeff Sullivan
9:44
I'd think so, yeah. I don't think the market will be deterred by the home-run spike. His stuff is better than last year, and his strikeouts are up
Boo!
9:46
What's your take on Nick Williams? I expected him to get eaten alive my MLB pitching, but that hasn't happened. He improved his K/BB numbers his last months in AAA, and the changes have stuck through his first 200 MLB PA. Average player and above average hitter going forward?
Jeff Sullivan
9:47
Definitely not yet buying him as an above-average hitter. Ugly blend of contact rate and out-of-zone swing rate. I see the skills and I see the potential, but I think he's about due for an extended adjustment slump
Reginald Denton III
9:47
Chris Sale has had a couple of rough outings against Cleveland, but his overall numbers are down the last month or so.  Anything to be concerned about there?
Jeff Sullivan
9:48
Nah, he's great
LegallyEagle
9:48
Let's say a 6 way tie occurs for the last AL Wild Card slot. Who is the favorite to survive that circus?
Jeff Sullivan
9:48
No one
No one would survive that circus
jim
9:49
Just how much does this Conforto injury set the Mets back in 2018? It does not seem like this is going to be a simple recovery.
Jeff Sullivan
9:50
If you want to oversimplify, I'd say it should be expected to hurt them by a fraction of a win. Odds are, he'll be okay, but he might take a little time to re-find his power. Expect the Mets to put just a little extra emphasis on finding a good backup
Jake
9:51
Have no noticed that Tyler Glasnow is having what might be the best pitching season in the history of the IL?
Jeff Sullivan
9:52
Well that's an exaggeration. His FIP in that league is a hair or two better than Andrew Albers
But, yeah, people have noticed his improvement. He's still down there because the Pirates are playing the service-time game, but Glasnow ought to be up shortly, and I'm deeply interested to see how he's improved his mechanics
JimmyBallgame
9:53
Loving this BOS-CLE series. Seems like they're destined to meet again in the ALCS. Who takes that series down?
Jeff Sullivan
9:53
I think I'd give the Indians a very slight edge, provided Miller's knee is okay by then
Matt
9:55
What exactly was Joe Maddon thinking having Schwarber and Happ together in the OF with a one-run lead in the 8th yesterday vs CIN? Not to harp on a single play but it helps underscore the long-term incompatibility of those two in OF together...
Jeff Sullivan
9:56
I'm as surprised as you are to learn that Happ has rated as a better fly-catcher this year in center than Almora
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