JotCast | Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 8/25/17

Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 8/25/17

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Brett W

9:56

Is Trout's MVP narrative reliant on the Angels making the Wild Card game?

Jeff Sullivan

9:56

It's realistically the only way he's going to convince enough people to give him the votes

9:57

At what point does the Stanton contract become at all appealing?

Jeff Sullivan

9:59

10 years and $295 million remaining after this, with a full no-trade clause and with an opt-out after 2020. That's still well underwater

10:00

If Stanton does next year what he's doing this year, then it's a different conversation. But for now that contract is still incredibly difficult to move. The opt-out is practically toxic

Blech

10:00

Is Chris Taylor Ben Zobrist now? As in, can he spend the next few years providing 3+ wins from multiple positions?

Jeff Sullivan

10:00

Probably

10:01

He's not this good a hitter, but he's better than average, and he's versatile, and he's young. He checks the boxes

Kyle

10:01

What do we want? Bryce Harper!!! When do we want it? Now!!!

Jeff Sullivan

10:01

Too bad

Hal

10:01

Give me one reason not to name my firstborn after Rhys Hoskins

Jeff Sullivan

10:02

Your partner might not want you to

logarithm

10:02

Is there any way this Nick Williams is for real?

Jeff Sullivan

10:02

10% yes

NtFlxAndRichHill

10:02

I feel like the answer to this question is no, because the long-term effects can't be known yet, but is there any chatter about any teams that are prioritzing their prospects differently based on the offensive environment at the MLB level? For example, might a team value more contact oriented hitters with gap power right now? Obviously I'm using Rhys Hoskins as a recency bias for this thinking, but maybe teams should be, too?

Jeff Sullivan

10:03

I don't think there's a huge effect, because it's still possible the home runs go away as suddenly as they've appeared, but I do think that teams just generally like contact hitters a little more now, because you don't need that much contact to knock the ball over the fence. That is, a contact hitter can learn power, but a power hitter might not be able to learn contact

10:04

I mean, Jose Ramirez is slugging .518. Don't give up on a contact hitter

Grover

10:05

Could J. Upton's agent be talking to teams to gauge interest and better inform his decision on whether or not to opt out, or would this be considered textbook tampering?

Jeff Sullivan

10:06

I'm sure there are ways around it. I'm sure agents do it all the time. You would probably need to just not use the specific name of the client in question. The agent, then, might just ask teams about a hypothetical player with Upton's exact profile

10:07

But even then, I don't know how much there would be to learn, that couldn't already be assumed by just reading the market, and examining recent contracts for similar players

GraphsFan

10:07

Do you enjoy writing about topics other than baseball?

Jeff Sullivan

10:07

I don't do it

So I don't know!

Brent

10:08

Keon Broxton is going to go 25-25, and if his defense didn't grade out as terrible, he'd be in themiddle of a 3-win season. You were right, but it also feels like you were wrong.

Jeff Sullivan

10:09

It's not like I was going out on a limb or anything -- I was just reporting what the numbers said Broxton had already accomplished. The numbers liked Broxton's defense, and they liked his quality of contact. Now, this year, Statcast still likes his defense, but Broxton's average exit velocity is down five miles per hour. That's not great, given that he's lost so many walks

He's still good though. Annoying but good

Kyle

10:10

Is Chris Taylor really this good? I always expected lots of regression even though he hit well in the minors because he ran such high BABIP but is this truly who he is? can he really hit for a .360+ BABIP? Talk me off the ledge please.

Jeff Sullivan

10:10

Chris Taylor has a BABIP of .401. Joey Votto has a career BABIP of .354. Chris Taylor is not Joey Votto

Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes

10:11

So is Rich Hill's legacy going to be being the indie ball guy who lost a perfect game in the 9th to an error and the no hitter in the 10th to a walkoff homer?

Jeff Sullivan

10:11

I think that Hill is too good for that to be his legacy

I mean, that's how certain people will remember him, but Hill's story was already incredible. This is just another chapter. Someone will write the official Hill book, and it will be fantastic, and it will be about so very much more than this

jkdff

10:11

Carlos Rodon: ace in 2018?

Jeff Sullivan

10:12

Unless you mean ace of the White Sox. In which case, sure, by default

Grover

10:13

Do you think the Dodgers engage any of their current crop on longer term extensions, guys like Grandal or Puig, or are they largely expendable with the depth LA has?

Jeff Sullivan

10:14

I can see them being interested in keeping Grandal around for longer, but not Puig. Don't think they're too keep on paying fair-market prices when the organization is as deep as it is. Always more pre-FA players to plug in

Mark

10:14

Better punch: Odor or Sanchez?

Jeff Sullivan

10:14

Odor threw the best baseball punch in years

Justin Wilson

10:15

I was one of the most coveted relievers at the trade deadline. Why can't I throw strikes anymore?

Jeff Sullivan

10:16

Very good question. I haven't gone in deep because I haven't cared to yet, but nine walks in nine games is way too many