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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 9/22/17
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Jeff Sullivan
9:56
Unconvinced. I'm willing to *be* convinced, but I don't have a problem with the way that things are. Most years you won't have a big difference between WC1 and WC2, and already, by being a WC team, you didn't win the division
Just seems to tip things too strongly is all
Chicks Dig the Long Ball
9:57
Recently you took some light-hearted jabs at Yusmiero Petit on Effectively Wild. Take a look back at his 2014 season and particularly what he did in the playoffs that year. I think he totally has the skillset to be the darkhorse Andrew Miller. Aside from the fact that the Angels still don't seem like they'll make the playoffs.
Jeff Sullivan
9:58
I'm aware of Petit's 2014, but, playoffs aside, what stands out is that Petit in the regular season was used in extremely low-leverage spots. He actually wound up with a negative WPA. The surface numbers were good, but *this* year, Petit has been of actual, meaningful value when the Angels have needed it
He's still no Andrew Miller, but that doesn't mean the Angels wouldn't try to use him as such, given their lack of other options
Chris Hardwick
9:59
Who you like better next year, Smoak or Josh Bell?
Jeff Sullivan
9:59
Justin Smoak is good now and Josh Bell is not
Bork
9:59
Who's your darkhorse pick for a potential landing spot for Ohtani?
Jeff Sullivan
9:59
San Diego
marc w
10:00
Do you prefer a season like the NL's having, with a group of teams that separate themselves from the pack (in both directions), or a season like the AL, where until a few days ago, nearly everyone was theoretically alive, and there were two great/awful teams and a huge glut in the middle?
Jeff Sullivan
10:00
I like the AL because I like the competition and chaos. Now, all of a sudden, the wild-card race is actually more interesting in the *National* League, so, here we are
10:01
Just in general, I'm perhaps less interested than the average fan in having the best team win in the playoffs. I don't care. It's a tournament built upon randomness. I like the thought of some extremely mediocre pile of crap AL WC2 team running the table
10:02
Like, what if the Twins represent the AL in the World Series? What on earth? Why should that happen? The counter-argument being: why shouldn't that happen? It would be delightful and nauseating
Colin
10:02
Will the Mariners ever have a winning team that makes the playoffs again before I turn 70?  I am 40 now.
Jeff Sullivan
10:03
They will probably at some point increase the number of teams that make the playoffs
Not that that answers your question
Prince S. Leia Fielder
10:03
Understanding that it wont happen, sell me on why the Padres wont be as bad as people think next season #youcant
Jeff Sullivan
10:03
See Ohtani above
hypo
10:03
how noisy is wRC+?  mostly BABIP related?
Jeff Sullivan
10:03
That would be the greatest source of noise, yeah
Anthony
10:06
Nick Castellanos' strikeout rate since the Break is at 16%, and his plate discipline metrics are about average while his contact quality is still there. This is the breakout finally, right?
Jeff Sullivan
10:07
This is by far the best low-strikeout stretch of his career. On the other hand, it's also maybe the lowest-walk stretch of his career, and he's faced a lot of pretty bad pitching. Reason to be optimistic, yes. But don't put both feet on the bandwagon
10:08
Well I guess you can't stand half on a bandwagon and half off
Look, be safe. Just know you're responsible for your own actions
Matt
10:08
I want to thank you for Kris Bryant no longer being unclutch
Jeff Sullivan
10:09
His high-leverage line is all the way up to .159/.339/.295!
10:10
Although since that article he's gone 2-for-5 with two homers and a pair of walks
lol
Got me again
iron wolf
10:12
Jeff: read your article on most improved hitters.  Aaron Hicks has improved his wRC+ by a huge amount.   Do you think he gets more playing time next year---assuming he stays healthy?  If so,  who is the likeliest OF on the Yankees to be moved?  Ells or Gardner?
Jeff Sullivan
10:12
Gardner would be easier to move, but I'm sure they'd like to shed Ellsbury more. I'm not all the way convinced anything actually happens -- possible to begin with the same four-man rotation, with Hicks playing almost every day
Bork
10:13
Does Angelos dabble too much into the Orioles front office? It always seems like fans and analysts alike always groan whenever they see Angelos's name attached to a potential move.
Jeff Sullivan
10:13
The Orioles are a complicated organization to work for
10:14
It's not all Angelos' fault. He's also not the only meddlesome owner, plus, as owner, he reserves the right to do as he likes. But he's in there.
odricks
10:16
Should the Nats look to trade for someone like Tyler Flowers this offseason in order to fix what has been one of their biggest weaknesses this year?
Jeff Sullivan
10:16
Flowers would be good, but the Braves would probably like to keep him. I wonder if it would be possible for the Nats and Orioles to put their differences aside so the Nats could get Caleb Joseph
TJ
10:17
Do you buy that this is the offseason that the Yankees get under the luxury tax threshold or just another bluff? They have enough competent minor league replacements for the expiring deals that they could do it
Jeff Sullivan
10:17
I haven't read all the details of how it would be possible, but the Yankees have more cheap depth options than ever before in recent memory. Seems like they could definitely do it if they wanted
10:18
Even a hypothetical Ohtani acquisition wouldn't hurt in this regard
Ray
10:18
Aren't the Jays far enough away that they should look to move Donaldson (STL looks like a good fit)?
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