JotCast | Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 9/22/17

Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 9/22/17

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Jeff Sullivan

10:19

I think it's possible to look at the Jays and see a competitive team in 2018. And obviously there's some premium talent rising up on the farm. So this isn't like the Orioles/Machado situation. Jays can hold

Josh

10:19

Who you got as the last NL Wild Card team: Rockies, Brewers or Cardinals?

Jeff Sullivan

10:19

I assume it'll be the Rockies, but I can't help but bandwagon the Brewers. I've been disappointed by their last two contests, given the opportunities presented

10:20

Funny how quickly you can forget about the big picture when you get frustrated by events in the little one

Aaron

10:21

If the Nats can't extend Harper, should they consider trading him this winter? They suddenly have plenty of OF options and are likely to be well clear in the NL East again - so it would be a move to extend the window at some short-term risk.

Jeff Sullivan

10:21

I just don't see it. No other team would be able to extend him pre-FA, either. No other team would give up significant immediate value. So the Nationals would be making themselves worse, when they want to be as good as possible. They'll get some form of compensation when Harper walks

10:25

Sorry for that extended delay

Had to go back and re-read the new FA compensation rules. Complicated!

Anthony

10:25

Is there a forthcoming article on baseball's least improved, to be polite, hitter forthcoming?

Jeff Sullivan

10:26

Not planning one yet, but I can tell you that, at least as far as xwOBA is concerned, it's Yasmani Grandal

He's gotten much worse!

10:26

Will the Mariners ever make the playoffs?

Jeff Sullivan

10:26

Let's all just assume not

It's liberating. You are now liberated. I'm a hero

CarrotJuice

10:26

How concerned are you about Jon Lester?

Jeff Sullivan

10:27

Well I'm not experiencing any emotional distress. But having looked at some of the indicators yesterday, his command has been horribly off and he's been missing a lot arm-side. Trouble keeping pitches glove-side and down. Couldn't spot anything mechanical. I don't know exactly what the problem is but he's not firing on all cylinders

10:28

At some point doesn't Trout need to actually come up big for his team in a big spot? It's getting awkward

Jeff Sullivan

10:28

I know he hasn't hit much this month. The Angels could've really used him. In his partial defense, he also hasn't struck out, and he's constantly walked. His September OBP is still north of .400

Sonny

10:29

The Red Sox are the least good good team in this year's playoffs. There is a sizeable hole in the lineup after the core, the infield D is avg at best and the starting rotation goes exactly one deep but lacks the proven bullpen to compete with other thin rotations.

Jeff Sullivan

10:31

Red Sox currently ninth in baseball in BaseRuns record, between the Cardinals and the Rays. However, they would project as the fourth-best team, if that matters for anything. Generally, I agree with you -- they're quite good, but also probably the most flawed among the elite

Praising with faint critique

Moltar

10:31

Should the Mets embark on a full rebuild this offseason? It's getting harder and harder to squint and see a contender in the next couple of seasons.

Jeff Sullivan

10:32

I think it's quite easy. You just need the pitcher health. That's it. That's the thing we all took for granted a couple years ago. Nothing to actually count on, of course, but I don't think it's at the rebuild stage yet. You just regroup and cross your fingers

Ronald Acuna's Big Brown Eyes

10:32

How do you feel about teams manipulating service time? As much as Id love to see RA on the Braves opening day roster, it's easy to see why they would potentially keep him down for an extra year of control

Jeff Sullivan

10:33

I hate that it happens but I can't deny that it works in a team's own long-term interests. What's the benefit of having Acuna on the opening-day roster when you can control him a whole extra year if you just leave him down a couple of weeks?

Think the Cubs are paying any sort of cost for having played this game with Bryant? They're not

10:34

It's something to be addressed. This shouldn't be so strongly incentivized. The number of service days required to count as a full year should be reduced, so that teams pay more of a penalty leaving a player down

Kevin

10:36

O's fan here...Austin Hays...2018 RF or 2017-2018 winter trade asset for SP?

Jeff Sullivan

10:36

I don't think the Orioles are in any kind of position to be trading away talented 22-year-olds

10:37

Start Severino in the wild card game or try a bullpen game and save Severino for the division series?

Jeff Sullivan

10:37

Wild-card game is going to be crucially important. Gotta win it before you think about anything else. Give Severino four or five innings and then turn it over

10:38

Did the Garcia trade work for the Twins? Littell is a nice piece to have but it's kind of funny that the Twins could desperately use him right now and the Yankees are just using him as a spot 5th starter

Jeff Sullivan

10:38

I think it's overall good -- Garcia isn't *that* much better than the Twins' options, and they're deeply unlikely to go anywhere in the playoffs anyway. But it's clearly a funny situation

Corey

10:39

Does data for the position that hitters stand in the batter's box exist? How useful could it be?

Jeff Sullivan

10:40

Doesn't exist in public as far as I know. Only very indirect proxies. Would only be of interest to see which players might be moving around. Otherwise, it's plain to see where a guy is standing when he comes up

Anthony

10:40

xFIP overrates GB pitchers right? Because they're naturally inclined to allow above - average HR/FB rates?

Jeff Sullivan

10:40

It's a slight factor, sure

Also worth remembering GB pitchers tend to allow more unearned runs

10:41

Since there are a lot more errors on grounders than flies

10:41

Why is Carlos Beltran still getting starts? He looks cooked

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